Another day, another ranking. Except this time it’s second base. We already wrote out our 2011 catcher rankings and 2011 first base rankings so those are definitely worth checking out, and if you want to see the rest of our 2011 fantasy baseball projections you can do that, too. Tons of stuff. You’ll need to know it.
Tier 1
Robinson Cano (NYY), Chase Utley (PHI), Dustin Pedroia (BOS)
Cano has vaulted to the top of just about every second base ranking on the web due to a breakout 2010 season right when Utley started to seem mortal. Cano’s last two seasons were nearly identical, and he hasn’t missed more than three games in any of the last four years. The only downside is his almost non-existent stolen base output, but a .320 average, near 30 homers and 200 R/RBIs kind of make you forget about that. … Yeah, Utley is 32 but I’m inclined to believe he’s still an elite option. His batting average has dropped each year since 2007, but he’s a 30/100 threat nonetheless and should steal 10-20 bases. … Pedroia was on pace for his typical 115-run, 20-steal season again last year before a freak foot injury derailed his season (my sources tell me Rex Ryan was behind it). Best of all, he had 12 homers in his 75 games and looked set to finally crack that 20-homer mark we’ve been waiting for.
Tier 1.5
Ian Kinsler (TEX)
I rewrote this post twice before, once with Kinsler in tier one and once with him in tier two. Neither seemed right to me, so I decided to give Kinsler his own tier. The guy can’t stay healthy, but he’s the closest thing to a 20/20 lock at second base and he even has 30/30 potential (did that in 2009). Injuries have always been a concern, and his batting average fluctuates rather wildly, but I have no problem starting Kinsler at second base. When he plays, he easily belongs in tier one. When he doesn’t, I don’t mind starting someone else like Neil Walker or Jose Lopez in the interim.
Tier 2
Dan Uggla (ATL), Rickie Weeks (MIL), Ben Zobrist (TB), Brandon Phillips (CIN), Martin Prado (ATL), Aaron Hill (TOR)
If Uggla really was a .280 hitter, he might be a member of tier one. He’d certainly be a member of tier 1.5. Unfortunately, he’s not a .280 hitter. His .330 BABIP last season was easily higher than his current career mark of .302, and his LD% last season wasn’t that much better than his career LD%. Summary: Uggla’s .280 average was lucky. It’s back to the .260s for him. Four straight 30-plus homer seasons and 90-100 runs and RBI are very nice, but negative contributions in two of the five standard fantasy categories (SB and AVG) keep you out of the top tier. … Weeks‘ 11 steals were actually the fewest of his career (if you don’t count his injury-shortened 2009 season), but no one really cared since he was busy hitting 29 homers and scoring 112 runs. The power is semi-legit; I think something in the 20-25 range is more likely in 2011, but I do expect more steals. … I’m still a huge fan of Zobrist and I’m willing to overlook everything he did last year. … Phillips‘ RBI total fell way down to 59, but he’s still a solid bet for a 20/20 season but, sadly, a .265-.275 batting average. … All of Prado‘s numbers last year (.307 AVG, 100 R, 15 HR, 66 RBI and 5 SB) were in line with his 2009 per-game averages, so expect the joy ride to continue. … We already covered our 2011 Aaron Hill fantasy projection, but if I had to sum up my feelings towards him in four words or less I’d say “Buy.” Ha. Only needed one word.
Tier 3
Gordon Beckham (CHW), Brian Roberts (BAL), Howie Kendrick (LAA), Chone Figgins (SEA), Kelly Johnson (ARI), Neil Walker (PIT), Jose Lopez (COL), Tsuyoshi Nishioka (MIN), Danny Espinosa (WAS)
Beckham actually rebounded well in the second half last season. Maybe he’s just one of those “one year too early” guys. If so, you’ll want to own him this year. … Roberts is a major health risk and is getting up there in age. Don’t count on more than 20 or so steals (even if he plays in 140 or more games), but that paves the way for increased power output. He’s always been a serious doubles guy. … Kendrick should get his average over .290 again, but perennial first-half struggles have been limiting his end-of-season stats. If he can put it together in April and May, buy on him. … Figgins is likely going to hit at the tail end of a pitiful lineup, but he could always steal 40-plus bases. … We already wrote our 2011 Kelly Johnson fantasy projection, so check that out if you want. Summary: Prognosis Negative. … Walker had a surprisingly solid rookie season (.296/.349/.462 with 12 HR, 57 R, 66 RBI and 2 SB in 110 games), and nothing suggests he can’t continue to improve over a full season. … Take a look at Lopez‘s career stats and tell me that doesn’t look pretty good in Colorado. … Nishioka is an unknown, but we do know he had a heck of a career in Japan. Should hit for a good average and steal a lot of bases. Then again, Kaz Matsui was supposed to be pretty good, too. … We didn’t rank Espinosa in our top 30, but right about now I’m wishing we had (check back for our updated rankings). Hey, better late than never. You can check out our 2011 Danny Espinosa fantasy projection instead.
Tier 4
Sean Rodriguez (TB), Omar Infante (FLA), Juan Uribe (LAD), Mike Aviles (KC), Reid Brignac (TB), Alberto Callaspo (LAA), Freddy Sanchez (SF), Ryan Theriot (STL), Jed Lowrie (BOS), Ryan Raburn (DET), Eric Young Jr. (COL)
Rodriguez had a great spring training last season, but he’s still nothing special. … Infante can hit for average, but that’s about it … Uribe seems to turn it on late in the season these days. … Aviles and Brignac are two of the guys from this tier you’ll want to target if only because they have the potential to be rosterable players for an entire season. … Sanchez gets you a little bit in every category, and Theriot gets you everything in only one category (SB). … Red Sox manager Terry Francona has said Marco Scutaro is his starting shortstop and Lowrie will be the backup everything. That means a lot of AB for a guy who posted nine homers and slugged .526 in just 55 games last year … Like Lowrie, Rayburn has the talent but doesn’t have a starting job. Still, he finds a way to get ABs. … Young is a 50-steal threat with enough playing time. Lopez’s presence in Colorado muddies the picture, though.
Nice work on the 2nd base rankings. Can you give projections for Nishioka? Does he hit 10 homers? Over / Under on steals?
What about Rickie Weeks average? Does he regress to .250?
Thanks for the comment. As a general rule, players who come from Japan don’t even approach the same power numbers they had over there. Check out some of the most recent examples:
Hideki Matsui: 33 HR/yr in Japan, 24 in MLB (if you leave out his 2 injury-shortened seasons when he combined for 17 HR)
Ichiro Suzuki: 17 HR/yr in Japan, 9 in MLB
Kaz Matsui: 19 HR/yr in Japan, 5 in MLB in mostly shortened seasons
Nishioka had HR totals in Japan of 6, 4, 4, 3, 13, 11, 14 in his 7 years in Japan. I’d say in America he’s more of a 4-7 HR guy. Especially in his first season.
As for Weeks, he’s probably more of a .255-.265 hitter. His BABIP was a little high this season,especially given his mid-15% LD%, and his K rate will always keep his average down. The power is close to legit though. 20-25 HR and 80+ rbi are all very attainable.
Thanks for reading!
missed part 2 of your nishioka question. he was a pretty solid SB guy in Japan with recent totals in the mid-to-low 20s. i’d say 20 is a solid over/under so this season, but a lot of that will have to do with playing time. there are a lot of variables that come into play when a guy comes from japan, but he should see 400+ AB