Archive | January, 2011

Free 7-Day eCourse "7 Steps to Building a Fantasy Baseball Champion" Now Available!

By on January 31, 2011 | Comments { 0 }

You might have seen the link in the navigation bar right above that says Free 7-Day eCourse. If you’ve ever clicked on that tab, you would have seen a page that told you to check back on February 1 for our free eCourse called “7 Steps to Building a Fantasy Baseball Champion.”

True to our word, the eCourse is up and running. It’s comprised of seven short 5-10 minute tutorials that get sent to your inbox once a day for the next week. Once you sign up you’ll receive the Day 1 tutorial and you’ll be one day closer to doing everything it takes to win your league this season.

Don’t forget to check us out on Twitter @Baseballprof if you’re not following us yet, and you can always subscribe to our posts by clicking one of the handy little buttons in the top right corner of the page or by submitting your email address in the box in the menu on the right.

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Who Should I Draft: Kevin Youkilis or Kendry Morales?

By on January 31, 2011 | Comments { 2 }

In our first attempt at ranking players for 2011 fantasy baseball, we slotted Kevin Youkilis and Kendry Morales eighth and ninth, respectively. With both players suffering season-ending injuries last year, they combined to appear in just 153 games with a .301 average, 106 runs, 30 homers and 101 RBI. You know what? My 2011 projection for either player wouldn’t be far off from that line. Morales’ broken leg and Youkilis’ torn thumb muscle are both fluky injuries and shouldn’t impact their 2011 seasons, so if you’re forced to decide between the two in your best attempt to avoid starting Adam Dunn or Paul Konerko at first base, who should you take?

Each player is assigned a grade for each of the five standard offensive categories plus a few extra I felt were important to factor. Grades are based on my expectations for the season and take into account both the player’s expected performance relative to the entire player pool and relative to the position he plays at. Grades were averaged using the standard 4.0 GPA scale to provide a cumulative “Professor’s Grade.”

CategoryYoukilisMoralesEdge?
Professor's GradeB (3.12)B (2.96)Youkilis
RunsA-BYoukilis
Batting AverageA-BYoukilis
Home RunsBAMorales
RBIB+B+Draw
Stolen BasesC-DYoukilis
HealthB-BDraw
Potential CeilingB+A-Morales
Pick SecurityA-B-Youkilis

Case for Youkilis

With three straight .300-plus seasons and 100/100 run/RBI potential only rivaled by the elite first basemen, Youkilis is a well-rounded second tier player who had been a pillar of consistency before his season was cut short last year. Youkilis will likely bat right between Adrian Gonzalez and Carl Crawford, which will ensure he sees good pitches to hit, and a full season of Jacoby Ellsbury and his 70-steal potential will only increase Youk’s RBI chances. Between Crawford, Ellsbury and Dustin Pedroia, it’s entirely possible for the three hitters ahead of Youkilis to combine for 120-plus steals.

Youkilis finished sixth in MVP voting in 2008 and third in 2009, so he has been in the conversation, but it’s unlikely that he reaches some new level of performance, but his bust potential is pretty low, too.

Case for Morales

I actually projected Morales as my 2010 AL MVP, but that early injury erased any chance of that happening. Still, I gave him an A- in MVP Potential because I’m still amazed at the potential Morales has, and a 40-homer season is in the not-too-distant future. Morales’ run potential takes a hit because of the Angels lineup, but with a near-.300 average and significant home run-potential, Morales is a threat for 120 RBI. Of course, because of that lineup, 90-something is a distinct possibility as well.

Who Should You Draft?

This was about as close as it gets. Youkilis won the category count 3-2-2 and barely edged out Morales in my overall Professor’s Grade, and he’s the guy I’m taking. Youkilis has been too stable for too long and plays in too good of a lineup for me not to give him the nod, but I also recognize the .300/40/120 potential Morales has. Youk’s third base eligibility is a nice boost to his value, but if we’re looking at these two strictly as first basemen it doesn’t get much closer.

Now, is anyone really shocked that I’m siding with Youkilis here? Probably not. Still, notice how closely Youkilis and Morales graded out (a B and a B separated only by a few tenths of a point) and that should speak volumes about how great of a value Morales is this season. Mock Draft Central currently has him at the 59th overall selection to Youkilis’ 30th, although much of Youk’s value is admittedly buoyed by his third base eligibility. Still, while Youkilis wins this battle, Morales is a player to target.

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B.J. Upton: 2011 Player Profile

By on January 31, 2011 | Comments { 0 }

Hello, my name is George Fitopoulos and I’m a B.J. Upton apologist.

They say the first step to recovery is acceptance.

There is a popular term among the fantasy universe, “fantasy kryptonite,” which refers to a player who burns you year after year. Well Upton is that guy for me.

For years, Bossman Junior has faced ridiculous (just like the name I referred him as) expectations and he just keeps disappointing. With the subtractions of Carl Crawford and Carlos Pena, the Rays need Upton to step up this year more than ever.

The biggest knock on Upton is his batting average. As of now, his career mark stands at .260, but it has been in a steep decline since he hit .300 in his rookie season. Now, let’s get something straight—Upton isn’t a .300 hitter unless he can repeat his .396 BABIP from 2007. That’s not happening, but a .270 average isn’t out of reach.

Trying to make sense of Upton’s batting average woes will make your head spin. Among qualifying hitters who posted a BABIP over .300 in 2009, Upton had the second-lowest batting average (.241). The same held true last year, except his .237 average ranked last. That’s a product of his free-swinging style, but at some point his luck has to change. Right? Right?

Last year was Upton’s attempt at the perfect storm of bad plate discipline. Take a look at his numbers taken from his FanGraphs player page: (click the image to make it bigger)

To summarize the table, Upton faced fewer pitches in the strike zone (48.9 Zone%), swung at more pitches outside of the strike zone (25.3 O-Swing%) and made contact on fewer balls outside of the strike zone (55.2 O-Contact%). This all led to his career-high 12 percent swinging strikes and a 30.6 strikeout percentage. I’m considering 2010 his rock-bottom as a hitter.

What I see in Upton is a player who is just about to enter his power-prime and is coming off  a season where he hit 18 home runs, despite all the negatives in his approach. In the final two months of last year, Upton slugged 10 home runs and stole 14 bases with a .255 batting average. I don’t have to remind you that players who end the season strong can carry it over into the next season (i.e. Jose Bautista).

Upton has hit 20 home runs in a season and stolen 40+ bases in three consecutive seasons. Upton’s power is trending in the right direction as he has dramatically cut down on the ground balls the last three seasons (from 50.5% to 39.7%) and his HR/FB rate increased to 11 percent last season. Color me optimistic but I see a 20/40 season in Upton’s near future.

So yes, I am accepting that I am a B.J. Upton apologist, but that doesn’t mean I’m going to stop anytime soon.

2011 Fantasy Projection

.254 | 92 R | 21 HR | 63 RBI | 45 SB

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5 Big Questions: 2011 Philadelphia Phillies

By on January 30, 2011 | Comments { 0 }

We here at Baseball Professor think about our readers first and ourselves second—albeit a close second. That’s why we decided to reach out to other bloggers (who follow their respective teams more closely than we do) to give you a deeper look into the important issues every fantasy owner has to come to grips with this season. Our third installment is with the Philadelphia Phillies and comes courtesy of Bill Baer from Crashburn Alley.

For a complete trip around the Majors, check out the other 2011 team previews in this series.

1) Let’s start with the question everyone is wondering. When will Domonic Brown have the full-time gig in right field for the Phillies and how good will he be in 2011 and beyond?

Dom Brown was Keith Law’s No. 3 prospect in his top-100 list, so quite a lot is expected of him. From what has come out of the Phillies organization, the plan is to platoon Brown with a right-hander (Ben Francisco) to break him into a full-time Major League role. Unless he has an incredible spring training and brings that into the start of the regular season (or Francisco is injured), Brown should be splitting time throughout the entire 2011 season. Expect him to get a full-time role starting in 2012. As to how good he will be, I think Law’s ranking of Brown speaks volumes, but for this season, I would expect a triple-slash line around .280/.330/.450 but would not be surprised to see him exceed that.

2) I’ll make this one simple: Do we freak out over Ryan Howard’s sudden dip in home runs and RBI?

It’s a tough question. Ryan Howard is well-known for struggling against lefties, but last year, he actually struggled more (relatively) against right-handed pitchers, and he lost a ton of power even before his foot injury. His isolated power had been in the .290-.350 range over the previous four years, but dropped all the way to .229 last year. He has had plenty of time to rest and will have plenty of time to work on his mechanics so I would expect power numbers more in line with 2006-09.

3) Jimmy Rollins used to be the bastion of health, but only managed to play in 88 games last year. Couple that with his bad luck (.249 BABIP) over the last two seasons and you have a player who is on the verge of fading into fantasy oblivion. Can owners expect any sign of life from the 32-year-old shortstop in his 11th pro season?

I think the doomsday scenarios surrounding Rollins are based on overreactions. Consider that, in an injury-plagued year, Rollins put up a .243/.320/.374 line. The average National League shortstop had a .266/.325/.388 line. That’s right: as bad as Rollins was last year, he was as good offensively as an average NL SS. Assuming even a mild bounce-back year, Rollins is a top-five SS in the NL.

4) Last year, Shane Victorino traded four percent of his line drives for fly balls in an effort to hit more home runs. Well, it worked as he hit 18 home runs, but his batting average (.259) suffered quite a bit. I think I speak for all fantasy owners out there when I say that we want to see the old Victorino back. What do you see happenin’ with the Flyin’ Hawaiian?

I don’t know that he consciously sought to hit more fly balls. After all, his FB% was only 2.5% higher than his career average, and since we know that batted ball data isn’t close to 100% reliable (thanks to Colin Wyers of Baseball Prospectus), that is well within our error range. However, as players age, they do tend to improve their power numbers, so I think you can still expect 15-ish HR and a .160 ISO from Victorino.

5) With four All-Star starting pitchers heading the rotation, will the Phillies have to employ a personal therapist for Joe Blanton?

Maybe if he sticks around past the July 31 trading deadline. The Phillies did try and move Blanton and his contract during the off-season, but GM Ruben Amaro decided not to dump him for nothing and keep him as insurance in case any of the big four succumbs to an injury. However, I think he will be moved by July 31. Whoever he lands with will be getting an underrated pitcher whose performance is similar to that of Andy Pettitte and Carl Pavano.

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Mike Minor: 2011 Fantasy Sleeper

By on January 30, 2011 | Comments { 1 }

Mike Minor was the seventh overall pick in the 2009 MLB First-Year Player Draft. He quickly rose through the minors and made his first major league start with the Atlanta Braves exactly 14 months after being drafted.

His first four starts couldn’t have gone much better. Minor amassed a 3-0 record to go along with a 3.91 ERA and 26 Ks in 23 IP. However, fatigue set in after that and he didn’t win another game in his final four starts. He ended the year with a 5.98 ERA and a 1.57 WHIP, but he did manage to keep his strikeout rate high, ending the year with a K/9 of 9.52.

Despite his late season struggles, there is a lot to like about Minor in 2011. Keith Law, ESPN’s resident prospect guru, ranks him as the Braves fifth best prospect and the 61st best prospect in all of baseball. No need to worry about Minor’s prospect status though as he is expected to make the Braves opening day roster as the fifth starter.

There is a lot to like about Minor’s minor league numbers. In 134.1 innings, Minor struck out 163 batters, good for a 10.9 K/9. His control was also pretty good as his career minor league BB/9 is 3.1. Minor’s ability to strikeout opposing batters and limit his walks contributed to an impressive K/BB ratio of 3.54, a 3.15 ERA and a 1.11 WHIP.

With Minor’s pedigree and impressive minor league numbers, you’d think he would have had a stronger start to his major league career. Well, he did pitch better than the numbers indicate. His FIP was 3.77 and his .379 BABIP will assuredly come down next year. Also, his K/BB ratio with the Braves was an excellent 3.91. To put that in perspective, the average major league pitcher had a K/BB ratio of 2.17 last year.

Minor is someone to target late in your draft. He won’t be a workhorse and give you 200 innings, but he will be an excellent source of strikeouts with an above average ERA and WHIP.

Cue the, “his contributions won’t be minor” line.

2011 Fantasy Projection

12-11 | 3.95 ERA | 1.25 WHIP | 157 K | 160 IP | 8.83 K/9

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2011 Fantasy Baseball RP Rankings

By on January 29, 2011 | Comments { 0 }

Today we conclude our tier rankings with relief pitchers. We’ve already taken a look at our catcher rankings, first base rankings, second base rankings, third base rankings, shortstop rankings, outfield rankings and starting pitcher rankings. Closers are more of a fluid position and need to be closely monitored throughout the season but for now here is how they break down to start the season.

Tier 1

Mariano Rivera (NYY), Joakim Soria (KC), Heath Bell (SD), Brian Wilson (SF), Neftali Feliz (TEX), Carlos Marmol (CHC), Jonathan Papelbon (BOS)

Rivera shows no signs of slowing down and has had a sub-2.00 ERA and sub-1.00 WHIP for three straight years. … Soria has a career WHIP of 0.99 and has proven that he can save 40 games on a bad team. … Bell has had 40-plus saves for two straight years and his K/9 last year was 11.06. … Lowering his ERA and WHIP from a year ago, Wilson led the league with 48 saves. … Feliz could become a starter but the Rangers trade of Frank Francisco makes their bullpen thinner. … Marmol had 18 more strikeouts than Clay Buchholz in 2010. … Even in a down year, Papelbon increased his strikeout rate and saved 35-plus games for the fifth straight year, not to mention he’s playing for a contract.

Tier 2

Joe Nathan (MIN), Jonathan Broxton (LAD), Andrew Bailey (OAK), Jose Valverde (DET), J.J. Putz (ARZ), Francisco Rodriguez (NYM), John Axford (MIL), Francisco Cordero (CIN)

Coming off of Tommy John surgery, Nathan expects to have no limitations in Spring Training. … Broxton struggled last year, but still has elite stuff and will be the Dodgers opening day closer. … Bailey has posted a sub-2.00 ERA and sub-1.00 WHIP in each of his two major league seasons. Durability issues are all that plague him. … Valverde induced a ton of grounders last year, finishing the year with a GB% of 54.7 percent. His previous high was 40.6 percent. … With his 2010 numbers reminiscent of his glory days in Seattle, Putz will try to prove he can put up those elite numbers again as Arizona’s new closer. … Minus the save totals, Rodriguez actually had a better year last year than in 2008 when he saved 62 games. … Axford walks a lot of batters but he makes up for it with a low opponents’ average and a lot of strikeouts. … Cordero has averaged 39 saves over the past four years but his WHIP hasn’t been under 1.30 since 2007.

Tier 3

Huston Street (COL), Brad Lidge (PHI), Craig Kimbrel (ATL), Drew Storen (WAS), Leo Nunez (FLA), Ryan Franklin (STL), Chris Perez (CLE), Brandon Lyon (HOU)

If Street could just stay healthy for an entire season, he’d be in the second tier. … Inconsistency and arm trouble surround Lidge but he has his manager’s confidence. … Sleeper alert! Kimbrel, Atlanta’s new closer, struck out 17.42 batters per nine innings last year. … Despite struggling late in the year, Storen had a solid rookie campaign and should be firmly entrenched as Washington’s present and future closer. … Nunez has quietly put together two straight 25-plus save seasons and had a 2.86 FIP last year. … Franklin had a very good K:BB ratio of 4.20 last year despite a low K/9 of 5.82. … With a walk rate over four and a FIP much higher than his ERA, Perez likely won’t duplicate last year’s success. … Lyon won’t wow you in any category but all the saves are his.

Tier 4

Kevin Gregg (BAL), Chris Sale (CHW), Fernando Rodney (LAA), Joel Hanrahan (PIT), David Aardsma (SEA), Frank Francisco (TOR), Joel Peralta (TB)

Gregg is being paid closer money by Baltimore but Mike Gonzalez and Koji Uehara have had success in the closer’s role. … Sale most likely will get save chances for Chicago but Matt Thornton will get some as well. … The save chances will be there for Rodney but at a cost to your ERA and WHIP. … Hanrahan struck out 100 batters last year but will he win the closers job over Evan Meek? … Aardsma won’t be ready for Opening Day as a result of hip surgery but should resume the closer’s job by mid-April. Watch out for Brandon League in the mean time. … Francisco will be battling Octavio Dotel, Jon Rauch and Jason Frasor for the closers role, but he has excelled in the position before. … Tampa Bay’s closer situation is a mess right now. I’d take my chances with Peralta but don’t count out J.P. Howell once he returns from injury at the end of April.

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Who Should I Draft: Ryan Zimmerman or Alex Rodriguez?

By on January 29, 2011 | Comments { 1 }

It’s a question you might face on draft day. Do I draft an up-and-coming player entering his prime or an aging superstar who in previous years was a no-brainer to be drafted first? In this year’s draft, Ryan Zimmerman is an up and coming player and Alex Rodriguez is an aging superstar. So which one would you rather have?

Ryan Zimmerman

Pros

  • Averages the past two years: .299 AVG | 98 R | 29 HR | 96 RBI | 3 SB
  • Career highs in BA, OBP and OPS last year
  • Increased walk rate and decreased strikeout rate last year
  • Better supporting cast this year with veterans Jayson Werth and Adam Laroche and youngsters Ian Desmond and Danny Espinosa
  • At 26 years old, entering his prime power years

Cons

  • In five-year career has only eclipsed 30 HR once, 100 RBI once and a .300 AVG once
  • Power dropped off last year
  • After stealing double-digit bases in 2006, has not come close since
  • Swung at 25.9% of pitches outside the strike zone in 2010 compared to 21.3% in 2009

Alex Rodriguez

Pros

  • Averages the past three years: .286 AVG | 85 R | 32 HR | 109 RBI | 12 SB
  • 13 straight seasons with 30 HR and 100 RBI
  • Bats in the middle of one of baseball’s most potent lineups
  • Plays half his games in a hitters park
  • Totaled 125 RBI last year in only 137 games
  • Takes care of his body well

Cons

  • Will start the season at 35 years old
  • Has played in fewer than 140 games for three straight seasons
  • Stole only four bases last year after stealing 14 bases in 2009 and 18 the year before
  • Batting average has declined for three straight years

While it is clear from the list above that Rodriguez is on the downswing of his career and Zimmerman is on the rise, I’d still rather A-Rod for 2011, unless it’s a keeper league of course. The main reason is A-Rod’s power advantage. Even though he’ll only play 135-140 games, he is still a strong candidate to hit 30-plus HR, and with Derek Jeter and Mark Teixeira hitting in front of him the RBI opportunities will once again be plentiful. Zimmerman, on the other hand, had only 25 HR and 85 RBI last year. He should improve upon those totals but they’re unlikely to reach A-Rod’s power totals.

Another reason I like A-Rod over Zimmerman this year is the stolen base potential. Although A-Rod had only four last year, that’s the most Zimmerman has had in any year since 2006. I’m not expecting A-Rod to steal 20-plus or even 15-plus bases ever again, but since he’s a good base runner I don’t see why he can’t steal 10 bases.

As a result of A-Rod’s advantage in the power and speed categories, Zimmerman needs to be much better in runs and batting average to close the gap between himself and A-Rod. While Zimmerman does have a decent sized advantage in runs due to the fact that he plays in more games, he’s not decidedly better in batting average. His .307 AVG last year was buoyed by a BABIP of .334 (the highest of his career), which wasn’t supported well enough by his LD% of 17.6 percent. In actuality, Zimmerman is more of a low .290s hitter.

At this stage of his career, A-Rod is not much worse than a low .290s hitter, likely falling around the mid .280s, which was where his batting average was in 2009. Although A-Rod batted only .270 last year, his .274 BABIP was by far the lowest of his career. Add in the fact that A-Rod struck out only 18.8 percent of the time (the first year in his Yankee career that he struck out less than 20 percent of the time), and it’s safe to say that he should have a better batting average than he did in 2010.

To sum it up in basic terms, I’d rather have A-Rod’s HR, RBI and SB totals and only Zimmerman’s R total and AVG. I know I will draft Rodriguez over Zimmerman if presented with the choice, but which one will you draft?

Check out our other articles pitting two players against each other:

Hanley Ramirez vs. Troy Tulowitzki

Miguel Cabrera vs. Joey Votto

Ubaldo Jimenez vs. Clayton Kershaw

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