Ted Lilly is frequently pegged as one of the most underrated pitchers in fantasy baseball. I’m throwing Shaun Marcum‘s name into the mix.
Amid all of the exciting, media-grabbing stories that emerged over the first week of December – Jayson Werth to Washington, Adrian Gonzalez and Carl Crawford to Boston, no one to New York – many of fantasy baseball’s most relevant story lines have fallen by the wayside. Marcum’s trade to Milwaukee is a prime example.
So, let’s play a little bit of Did You Know:
- Did you know that Marcum actually threw 195.1 innings of 3.64 ERA ball in his first year back from Tommy John surgery?
- Did you know that over Marcum’s last two seasons (2008 and 2010) he has posted an impressive 3.53 ERA despite pitching in the AL East?
- Did you know that Marcum actually owns a 3.07 ERA against everyone not named the Red Sox, Yankees or Rays over that same period?
Factor in a move from the AL East, where baseball’s top three scoring offenses of 2010 resided, to the NL Central, where he’ll face baseball’s fourth, 14th, 18th, 28th and 29th ranked scoring offenses, and it’s hard to see how Marcum doesn’t benefit.
Of course, no Baseball Professor fantasy projection would be complete without looking at the advanced stats, so let’s see how well Marcum really performed last season.
- ERA – 3.64
- FIP – 3.74
- BABIP – .289
- LOB% – 74.3
- LD% – 18.3 (career 17.8)
Bottom Line
His BABIP and LOB% were only very slightly lucky, which we see in his FIP (slightly higher than his ERA). Overall, Marcum earned every bit of success he had in 2010, and a move to the National League will further cement him as one of fantasy baseball’s best values. Nagging injuries here and there (he had a short DL stint in 2010 with minor elbow and blister issues) will probably crop up, but nothing suggests he shouldn’t do well. Josh Johnson showed us last year that a pitcher can come back from Tommy John surgery and remain effective in consecutive seasons despite a heavy workload. Marcum’s velocity chart shows he was consistently throwing harder toward the end of last season than at any point since early 2008, so I’m ready to gamble on the Brewers’ newest arm.
2010 Projection
14-10, 3.35 ERA, 1.15 WHIP, 160 K, 190 IP
