There are so many different ways to approach predicting a hitter’s future performance, but one is usually overlooked more than most – batting order position.
There’s a post written by Jack Moore at RotoHardball that covers the importance of lineup slots in a baseball player’s fantasy value. It shows the following chart, which tracked the average plate appearances per game at each lineup slot:
- 4.83
- 4.72
- 4.61
- 4.49
- 4.39
- 4.26
- 4.14
- 4.02
- 3.90
(Note: Stats are from Tom Tango’s “The Book” and are compiled from 1998-2002 in the American League only.)
While there might not be a huge difference from batting third to fifth, dropping from second to sixth, or leadoff to ninth is a dramatic change in plate appearances when stretched over a full 162-game season.
In Moore’s post, he explains the effect lineup slot had on Curtis Granderson, who after batting leadoff in Detroit for four years, spent most of his time in the seventh or eighth slot last season with the Yankees. A lot of experts predicted Granderson to follow his 30-homer season in Detroit with 35-40 home runs in the new Yankee Stadium, but the odds were against him from the start as he was facing far fewer opportunities. Over 150 games, the drop from first to eighth is a difference of 121 plate appearances and not coincidentally, Granderson’s home runs dropped from 30 to a “mere” 24.
Another example is Ian Kinsler, who in 2009 posted a career-best 30 home runs, 86 RBI and 31 steals despite hitting for a career-low .253 batting average and posting a career-worst .327 OBP. One reason for this is because he stayed relatively healthy, playing 143 games, but also he spent most of his time in the leadoff spot and amassed 640 plate appearances.
In 2010, Kinsler had a better year with his averages (.286 BA, .382 OBP), but his counting stats suffered as his 162-game pace of 14 home runs was less than half of his 144-game output just a year before. Kinsler split his time batting third, fifth and sixth in the lineup and his 162-game pace for 648 plate appearances was only four more than what he faced in 144 games as a leadoff hitter.
With so much player movement in the off-season let’s take a look at some situations you should keep your eye on.
Jacoby Ellsbury, OF, and Carl Crawford, OF, Boston Red Sox
Terry Francona has come out and said that he wants to get Crawford near the top of his order so there shouldn’t be too much worry here. Crawford projects as a second or third hitter in this Boston lineup, however, Ellsbury is a more interesting case. Francona admitted that his best lineup is with Ellsbury leading off, but he hinted that he may not start there right away. If Ellsbury starts the year batting ninth, make sure to temper your expectations as the drop from top to bottom is a difference of 140 plate appearances over 150 games.
John Buck, C, Florida Marlins
Fresh off signing a 3-year, $15 million contract, Buck wasn’t brought in to Florida to bat at the bottom of the order. Last year, he spent 85 games in the bottom third of the Blue Jays lineup, but the Marlins don’t quite boast the same potent offense that Toronto does. Look for Buck to bat a little higher and add more plate appearances in the process.
The Tampa Bay Rays
With the departure of Carl Crawford, Jason Bartlett and Carlos Pena, you can expect plenty of new opportunity for new batters to thrive at the top of that lineup. Ben Zobrist could benefit from a more steady role in the number two hole with his ability to get on base. Would the Rays plug in rookie OF Desmond Jennings in the lead off role right from the start? Maybe perennial heart-breaker B.J. Upton will get another shot at it next year. Keep an eye on sleeper candidate Sean Rodriguez who showed flashes of brilliance in the month of June where he hit .295 with four homers, 17 RBI and six steals.
