Archive | December, 2010

Jeff Francis 2011 Injury Update

By on December 31, 2010 | Comments { 0 }

Similar to Brandon Webb, who’s own 2011 outlook we just looked at, Jeff Francis has missed a significant portion of the last two seasons dealing with a shoulder injury. Despite missing the 2009 season, he was able to make 19 starts last year.

While Francis’ ERA of 5.00 last year shouldn’t get anyone excited, it should be noted that not only was he working his way back from surgery, but that he actually pitched better than his numbers indicate. He had an xFIP 3.94 and he showed better command of the strike zone, walking only 1.98 batters per nine innings – the best walk rate of his career. Francis also threw harder last year with his fastball averaging 87.2 MPH. From 2006-2008 his fastball averaged 86.0, 86.6 and 86.8 MPH, respectively.

The further Francis is removed from surgery, the healthier he’s getting. Francis said in an interview with Marc Weber in the Vancouver Province, “It’s [shoulder] feeling better and better and I’ve been able to do everything that I’ve wanted to do up to this point.”  Considering that Francis is still only 29 years old, I’m shocked that no team has stepped up their efforts to sign him.

If he’s available at the end of your draft, don’t be afraid to take him and reap the potential benefits. After all, I’m pretty sure Francis would feel confident drafting himself, “There’s no doubt in my mind I can still get back to the guy who won 17 games.”

Hey, it’s no Matt Kemp “I’m a 40/40 guy” talk, but it’s encouraging nonetheless.

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Brandon Webb's Key to Success in 2011

By on December 31, 2010 | Comments { 1 }

Brandon Webb is coming off of a significant shoulder injury that required surgery. He missed all of 2010 and only pitched four innings in 2009, and now he’ll be a member of the Texas Rangers.

Webb was one of the best pitchers in baseball before the injury. He routinely had a low ERA and WHIP, struck out a little over seven batters per nine innings and racked up a lot of wins. The question is, how effective can he be with a reconstructed shoulder?

Unfortunately there are no advanced metrics to look at since he hasn’t pitched in over two years. Therefore, the answer to this question lies in one word: velocity. More specifically, the velocity of his sinking fastball.

Reports from teams who looked into signing Webb indicated that he had good movement on his sinking fastball but the velocity was low. Prior to the injury, Webb consistently sat in the high 80s with the pitch. Now, his sinking fastball is topping out in the low 80s.

For Webb to be successful in 2011, he needs to find a way to increase his velocity. According to ESPN’s Stats and Info blog, Webb’s opponents batting average from 2007-2009 was .375 on fastballs thrown 85 MPH or less compared to .281 on fastballs thrown between 86 and 90 MPH.

As you can see, Webb’s success is tied almost entirely to the velocity of his fastball. Therefore, Webb is someone to closely monitor in Spring Training. If he can improve his velocity and consistently throw in the upper 80s, he is someone you want to pounce on. And there’s no need to worry about balls flying out of his new home ballpark in the hot Texas heat. Webb is a proven groundball pitcher with has a good defensive infield behind him, led by the slick fielding Elvis Andrus. However, if Webb does not show improvement on his velocity, let someone else draft him hoping he can regain his pre-2009 form.

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Prospect Profile: Dustin Ackley | 2B | SEA

By on December 28, 2010 | Comments { 1 }

Jose Bautista hit 54 home runs in just over 550 at-bats in 2010. The Seattle Mariners couldn’t even double that total in over 5,400 at-bats last season. The Mariners’ offense was historically bad, so bad that four teams had more home runs at the All-Star break than the Mariners had by the time they’d earned their AL-leading 101st loss. Their .652 team OPS beat only Houston, but at least the Astros can blame their pitchers. Russell Branyan led the team with 15 homers and he only played 57 games in that ugly Mariners teal. Ichiro Suzuki had 214 hits but still scored fewer runs than Mark Reynolds, who had only 99 hits. No wonder they traded Cliff Lee for Justin Smoak.

But the Smoak Monster alone isn’t enough. The Mariners’ current projected starting infield includes Smoak, Chone Figgins, and a pair of irrelevant J. Wilson‘s (Jack and Josh, but they hit more like Jack and Jill) who combined for 16 home runs last season… and Figgins, Thing 1, and Thing 2 combined to hit three… in 1,156 at-bats!

And that’s why you need to know Dustin Ackley. While the 6’1, 184-pound second baseman won’t be making any Home Run Derby appearances anytime soon, he is as polished as prospects come. He’s disciplined at the plate, hits for good average, steals some bases, and knocks a few homers. Some claim his uber-upside comparison is Chase Utley, but even in the very likely event he falls short of that, he still projects as one of the better offensive second basemen in the game. Personally, I see a lot of Dustin Pedroia in him, statistically speaking.

Ackley struggled mightily in his first minor league season split between AA and AAA. His .267/.368/.407 triple-slash is rather underwhelming for someone of Ackley’s caliber, but the good OBP underscores the patience and discipline he has. He also managed seven home runs and 10 SB in 501 ABs with an impressive 79:75 K:BB ratio. Ackley was then named the MVP of the 2010 Arizona Fall League, finishing .424/.581/.758 with four homers and five steals in just 20 games. His K:BB ratio of 11:26 is unheard of, and since 2005 his 1.338 OPS was second only to White Sox’ prospect Tyler Flowers‘ incredible 1.433 OPS in the 2008 AFL.

With Jill, sorry, Josh Wilson currently holding down the M’s third base job, Ackley will have every opportunity to win the starting gig during spring training, forcing Figgins back to third. According to Jim Bowden of FOXsports.com, Ackley will open the season as the Mariners’ starting second baseman, only adding to what is already a deceptively deep position in 2011.

In all formats, particularly deep leagues and keeper leagues, Ackley is worth a late-round flier. Unfortunately, he still has no one to drive him in no matter where he bats in the Seattle lineup, but he could be a good source of batting average and stolen bases or as a match-ups play throughout the season. Most of his value is likely for 2012 and beyond.

I’ll leave you with a few Ackley-related tidbits:

And Ackley vs. Strasburg, battle of the 2009 1st and 2nd overall draft picks:

And a local news profile of Dustin Ackley, including an interview where Ackley explains the difficulty in transitioning from college ball to pro ball and from outfield to second base:

 

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The Importance of Lineup Slots

By on December 27, 2010 | Comments { 1 }

There are so many different ways to approach predicting a hitter’s future performance, but one is usually overlooked more than most – batting order position.

There’s a post written by Jack Moore at RotoHardball that covers the importance of lineup slots in a baseball player’s fantasy value. It shows the following chart, which tracked the average plate appearances per game at each lineup slot:

  1. 4.83
  2. 4.72
  3. 4.61
  4. 4.49
  5. 4.39
  6. 4.26
  7. 4.14
  8. 4.02
  9. 3.90

(Note: Stats are from Tom Tango’s “The Book” and are compiled from 1998-2002 in the American League only.)

While there might not be a huge difference from batting third to fifth, dropping from second to sixth, or leadoff to ninth is a dramatic change in plate appearances when stretched over a full 162-game season.

In Moore’s post, he explains the effect lineup slot had on Curtis Granderson, who after batting leadoff in Detroit for four years, spent most of his time in the seventh or eighth slot last season with the Yankees. A lot of experts predicted Granderson to follow his 30-homer season in Detroit with 35-40 home runs in the new Yankee Stadium, but the odds were against him from the start as he was facing far fewer opportunities. Over 150 games, the drop from first to eighth is a difference of 121 plate appearances and not coincidentally, Granderson’s home runs dropped from 30 to a “mere” 24.

Another example is Ian Kinsler, who in 2009 posted a career-best 30 home runs, 86 RBI and 31 steals despite hitting for a career-low .253 batting average and posting a career-worst .327 OBP. One reason for this is because he stayed relatively healthy, playing 143 games, but also he spent most of his time in the leadoff spot and amassed 640 plate appearances.

In 2010, Kinsler had a better year with his averages (.286 BA, .382 OBP), but his counting stats suffered as his 162-game pace of 14 home runs was less than half of his 144-game output just a year before. Kinsler split his time batting third, fifth and sixth in the lineup and his 162-game pace for 648 plate appearances was only four more than what he faced in 144 games as a leadoff hitter.

With so much player movement in the off-season let’s take a look at some situations you should keep your eye on.

Jacoby Ellsbury, OF, and Carl Crawford, OF, Boston Red Sox

Terry Francona has come out and said that he wants to get Crawford near the top of his order so there shouldn’t be too much worry here. Crawford projects as a second or third hitter in this Boston lineup, however, Ellsbury is a more interesting case. Francona admitted that his best lineup is with Ellsbury leading off, but he hinted that he may not start there right away. If Ellsbury starts the year batting ninth, make sure to temper your expectations as the drop from top to bottom is a difference of 140 plate appearances over 150 games.

John Buck, C, Florida Marlins

Fresh off signing a 3-year, $15 million contract, Buck wasn’t brought in to Florida to bat at the bottom of the order. Last year, he spent 85 games in the bottom third of the Blue Jays lineup, but the Marlins don’t quite boast the same potent offense that Toronto does. Look for Buck to bat a little higher and add more plate appearances in the process.

The Tampa Bay Rays

With the departure of Carl Crawford, Jason Bartlett and Carlos Pena, you can expect plenty of new opportunity for new batters to thrive at the top of that lineup. Ben Zobrist could benefit from a more steady role in the number two hole with his ability to get on base. Would the Rays plug in rookie OF Desmond Jennings in the lead off role right from the start? Maybe perennial heart-breaker B.J. Upton will get another shot at it next year. Keep an eye on sleeper candidate Sean Rodriguez who showed flashes of brilliance in the month of June where he hit .295 with four homers, 17 RBI and six steals.

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Ben Zobrist 2011 Projection

By on December 18, 2010 | Comments { 0 }

In 2009, Ben Zobrist made a surprising jump into the upper echelon of fantasy infielders by compiling an impressive .297/.405/.543 line with 27 homers, 91 runs, 91 RBI and 17 steals. Those totals were good for fifth among all second basemen behind perennial stars Chase Utley, Brian Roberts, Robinson Cano and the equally surprising Aaron Hill. Fantasy owners jumped on the Z-Train by grabbing Zobrist with the 65th overall pick on average, and both Chris Campanelli and I thought this made him a bargain.

Apparently, we were wrong.

But they say a captain goes down with his ship, and despite Zobrist’s underwhelming and overall disappointing 2010 season, I’m sticking with him. Sure, Utley, Cano, Dan Uggla, Brandon Phillips and the usual cast of characters will be there once again, and 2010 had an unusual number of breakout or comeback players like Rickie Weeks, Martin Prado, and Kelly Johnson, but Zobrist is still my boy.

Which begs the question, why would I stick with him?

First, the steals were still there. Even if he somehow replicates his abysmal .238 average and manages another spot-on Pokey Reese impersonation (.699 OPS), you’ll still get 20-plus steals.

And power doesn’t just disappear like that. Zobrist had HR/FB rates of 17.4 percent in 2008 and 17.5 percent in 2009 over a combined 214 games and 699 at-bats. Last year his HR/FB rate plummeted to 6.0 percent. Maybe he isn’t the 27-homer monster we saw in 2009, but I have a hard time seeing Marco Scutaro out-muscle him again. I’m thinking 20-plus is a good estimate. Need more? David Wright had HR/FB rates of 16.1 and 16.8 percent in 2007 and 2008, respectively, before his famous 2009 power outage (10 HR, 6.9% HR/FB rate). He bounced back last season with 29 dingers and a 15.5 percent HR/FB rate.

But what about that .238 average? True, luck alone won’t drop a guy’s average almost 60 points, but much of Zobrist’s struggles were the result of unusual trends in his plate discipline. He made contact with more pitches outside the strike zone last season (72.6 O-Contact%) and swung at more pitches outside the strike zone (25.3 O-Swing%) which resulted in a lot of bad contact. Not surprisingly, his line drive rate fell to a slightly-below average 17.8 percent and his infield fly rate doubled to 10.8 percent. Clearly, pitchers have noticed Zobrist’s talents and have adjusted accordingly. They have begun pitching around him, which we see with his decreasing Zone% each season (the percent of pitches he sees in the strike zone).

Despite these alarming trends, they have all the makings of one-year anomalies. We won’t know exactly how the departures of Carl Crawford, Jason Bartlett and Carlos Pena will affect the Tampa Bay lineup (although I’m willing to bet they won’t be beneficial), and that will change the way pitchers attack Zobrist. That’s why it’s especially worth mentioning that, in spite of the unusual approach Zobrist had at the plate last season, his walk rate was still good for seventh best among the 149 qualifying hitters and his strikeout rate was nearly identical to 2009.

There are many parallels between fantasy baseball and the stock market, and those who succeed at both are able to do it because they are able to accurately project the future and buy or sell accordingly. Zobrist’s stock is dropping in 2010. You should be buying.

(All stats courtesy of Zobrist’s player page at Fangraphs.)

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Under-the-Radar Transactions

By on December 17, 2010 | Comments { 0 }

With much of the buzz in the baseball world this winter surrounding Cliff Lee, Carl Crawford, Adrian Gonzalez and Jayson Werth, a lot of players have switched teams without a lot of attention. However, that does not mean these players should be ignored in fantasy. Below I have compiled a list of players who will find themselves in better situations in 2011.

Aaron Harang, SP, San Diego Padres

After Padres general manager Jed Hoyer saw three-fifths of his starting rotation leave via free agency (Jon Garland, Chris Young, Kevin Correia), he decided to fill one of the spots by signing Aaron Harang to a one-year deal worth four million dollars.

It’s no secret that Harang had a bad 2010. He finished the year with an ERA of 5.32 and a WHIP of 1.59. He also posted a K/9 of 6.61, his lowest total since 2003.

However, there is reason for optimism. Harang was somewhat unlucky last year. He posted an xFIP of 4.62, which was significantly lower than his actual ERA. He also had a high BABIP of .346. Although his LD% was high (22.1%), it was right in line with his LD% in 2005 and 2006, years in which his ERAs were 3.83 and 3.76, respectively.

Harang is a fly ball pitcher who doesn’t induce many ground balls, but playing half of his games in spacious PETCO Park should keep his ERA around 4.50 and his WHIP around 1.30. If he can improve his strikeout rate from last year, he may be worth a look in deep leagues to round out your rotation.

Carlos Pena, 1B, Chicago Cubs

Carlos Pena signed a “pillow” contract with the Cubs for one year worth ten million dollars with the hope of having an impact for a big market team much like Adrian Beltre had with the Boston Red Sox. The assumption is that he’ll be able to parlay his performance into a multi-year deal next off-season.

Last season, Pena’s ultra-low .196 average was fueled  by an unimpressive 14.5 LD%, his lowest in any season by far. Despite the low LD%, and correspondingly low BABIP, Pena was still able to smack 28 home runs and post a strong ISO of .211.

In 2011 he’ll be hitting in the middle of the Cubs lineup and will be playing half of his games in a hitter’s park. As a result, he should have no problem hitting at least 30 home runs and approaching 100 RBI while having a batting average well north of .200.

Mark Reynolds, 1B/3B, Baltimore Orioles

You’d think trading for a 27-year old third baseman who hit 44 home runs in 2009 would be an attention grabber, yet the Orioles’ trade for Mark Reynolds has flown under the radar much like the Birds themselves.

And much like Pena, Reynolds endured the lowest batting average and LD% of his career by a large margin. No wonder his BABIP of .257 was the worst of his career, much worse than his previous low of .323 in 2008. Also like Pena, Reynolds posted an impressive ISO (.234) and hit a fair share of home runs (32).

Reynolds is one of the few third basemen who can hit 30 home runs and he’s still entering his prime. And don’t fret about his move to a division with several frontline left-handed starters. Reynolds has a career OPS of .908 against southpaws.

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Cliff Lee Makes Four-of-a-Kind for Phillies

By on December 17, 2010 | Comments { 2 }

Cliff Lee‘s return to the Philadelphia Phillies is a scary sight for the entire National League. With the Lee signing the Phillies now add to their already stacked staff of three aces. In the poker world we call that four-of-a-kind.

It’s no secret that the National League is a pitcher’s league, and if you take what both Lee and Roy Halladay did in their only NL stints, the numbers tell the same story. Both pitchers have combined for 330.1 innings, an ERA of 2.67, and WHIP of 1.04. Even more astonishing is the strikeout-to-walk ratio of 7.3. Not since Curt Schilling in 2006 has a pitcher not named Lee or Halladay surpassed a ratio of six.

Sprinkle in the seasons that Cole Hamels and Roy Oswalt had last year and this pitching rotation is by far the most dominant in not only the Major Leagues, but in fantasy baseball as well. You could make a strong case that all four pitchers could be used as an SP1 or SP2 because they are all low-WHIP guys who know how to strike a batter out.

This got me thinking about other teams with great pitching rotations suited for fantasy baseball.

San Francisco Giants

With Tim Lincecum and Matt Cain, the Giants have two bona fide aces in their rotation. Following these two perennial studs is Jonathan Sanchez, an elite strikeouts pitcher who’s coming off a career year where he posted bests in ERA (3.07), WHIP (1.23), and strikeouts (205). … Don’t forget about Madison Bumgarner who not only had a 3.00 ERA and 3.66 FIP in 111 Major League innings, but also posted a 2.18 ERA and 18 strikeouts in 20 2/3 postseason innings.

St. Louis Cardinals

Besides having one of the best pitching coaches in the game, the Cardinals boast one of the best 1-2 combos with Adam Wainwright and Chris Carpenter. Wainwright makes a strong case for Best Pitcher in the Game, and Carpenter is an ace when healthy. The Cardinals also have 2010 rookie phenom Jaime Garcia, who posted a 2.70 ERA and 3.41 FIP in 163 1/3 innings last season. And don’t discount Jake Westbrook whose fantasy value returned when he was acquired by the Cardinals and posted a 3.48 ERA and 1.25 WHIP in 12 starts.

Oakland Athletics

There’s a lot of youth but a lot of upside in this staff and it starts with their ace, Brett Anderson. He was on his way to a great encore following his rookie year, but elbow ailments derailed his season. Still, he should be able to bounce back as long as he is healthy. The next two guys, Trevor Cahill and Gio Gonzalez, are both under 26 years old and have mastered the very beneficial art of inducing ground balls. If both pitchers can stick to what worked for them so well in 2010, you can expect very similar success this coming year. … Finally we have Dallas Braden, who threw a perfect game and, despite an 11-14 record, actually posted some good numbers (3.50 ERA, 1.16 WHIP).

Boston Red Sox

The Red Sox boast one of the game’s best lefties at the top of their rotation in Jon Lester , but after that it’s a bunch of big names with question marks as big as their contracts. Will Josh Beckett get healthy and return to his top 15 form? How will John Lackey respond after a very bland first season in Boston? Clay Buchholz. Thankfully for fantasy fanatics everywhere, we will address these questions in the coming months. Oh, and then there’s Daisuke Matsuzaka, who was probably one of the most inconsistent starters in 2010 and can’t be relied upon to be any better than a back-of-the-rotation guy.

Atlanta Braves

Last year, Tim Hudson partied like it was 2008 and induced ground balls a ridiculous 64.1 percent of the time. If he can keep that number up around 60, there is no reason he won’t succeed in 2011. While Tommy Hanson had a worse year in terms of ERA (3.33), he actually improved his walk rate (2.49 BB/9) and had a better FIP (3.31). Look for him to be a nice value in the middle rounds of your draft. I’ve never been a huge fan of Jair Jurrjens, but you could do worse than him in the middle of your rotation. Mike Minor showed some flashes of brilliance in 2010 and he could be a nice sleeper in 2011. Derek Lowe is nearing the end of the road, but he upped his strikeouts and lowered his walks last year. Maybe he’s got one more serviceable year under his belt.

Sleeper Alert: Toronto Blue Jays

Bryan Curley wrote about the implications of the Shaun Marcum trade last week, but this staff still has plenty of quality arms. Last season, Ricky Romero improved in all the right categories by increasing his strikeout rate from 7.13 to 7.46, lowering his walk rate from 3.99 to 3.51, and lowering his FIP from 4.33 to 3.64. Look for this former first-round pick to keep soaring towards stardom. Brett Cecil is another lefty in the deceptively deep Toronto rotation who has gone from waiver-wire fodder to a steady back-of-the-rotation guy. He dramatically improved his walk rate from 3.66 to 2.81 and had a 15-7 record in the tough AL East, which shows that he is trending in the right direction. Brandon Morrow is a pitcher who knows how to strike a batter out (10.95 K/9) and his 3.10 FIP was well below his 4.49 ERA. You can credit his newfound success to somebody finally deciding whether or not he’s a starter or a reliever. Note to the AL: this guy’s a starter. It’s only a matter of time before he becomes a fantasy stud.Enhanced by Zemanta

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