From day one here at Baseball Professor we have been advocates for the young guys. We’ve argued for the unproven, talent-laden prospects instead of reliable and potentially used up veterans. As the second half gets underway and the annual minor league migration heats up, it’s more important than ever to know the major prospects inside and out.
Some have already gotten the call (Justin Smoak, Michael Stanton, Pedro Alvarez) while others are still waiting for their chance (Domonic Brown, Jeremy Hellickson, Brett Wallace). Setting keeper leagues aside, let’s take a look at how these potential stars of the future will fare during the Dog Days of Summer.
Justin Smoak, 1B, SEA – Smoak was the guy that Mariners’ GM Jack Zduriencik wanted all along. Leaving Arlington will hurt, but Smoak figures to bat at the heart of Seattle’s lineup behind run-scoring machines Ichiro and Chone Figgins. Unfortunately that hasn’t been the case so far as manager Don Wakamatsu has been slotting Smoak at sixth in the order. Either way, Smoak is a great value in the second half as his .206 average and awful .231 BABIP should correct themselves, especially since Smoak has an astounding 23.2-percent line drive rate so far.
Pedro Alvarez, 3B, PIT – For 2010, I hate Alvarez. He has immense power and clobbered minor league pitching in the offense-heavy International League, but he struck out over 28 percent of the time in Triple-A and has fanned an incomprehensible 34 times in just 84 at-bats with Pittsburgh (41.7%). To compound matters, Alvarez’s 36.2-percent O-Swing% ranks 315th of 360 players with at least 90 plate appearances. He’ll struggle to bat over .230.
Jose Tabata, OF, PIT – Unlike his co-Pirate Alvarez, Tabata actually has some fantasy value right now – just not a ton. He already has eight steals in just 29 games, which would be just over 44 thefts per 162 games. Also unlike Alvarez, Tabata is striking out just 15.5 percent of the time and has 14 walks to just 18 strikeouts. Plus, the speedster is hitting line drives or ground balls 81.3 percent of the time…that’s a good thing. Don’t be fooled though. Tabata’s a one-category performer right now.
Travis Wood, SP, CIN – In three starts Wood has a 2.18 ERA and a minuscule 0.68 WHIP after turning in a one-hit gem against the Fightin’ Phils on July 10. Maybe I’m being optimistic, but I project Wood as a reliable second-half starter until he hits his innings limit. Consider this: In 42 starts at Double- and Triple-A the last two seasons, Wood has posted a 2.27 ERA. Given the Reds’ recent track record with young starters (Mike Leake, anyone?), I’m willing to gamble on Wood.
Domonic Brown, OF, PHI – In the interest of full disclosure, I have already stashed Brown on my fantasy team’s bench. Now, I’m in a keeper league so there is a little more incentive for me to roll the dice here, but Brown is that kind of talent. Unfortunately, he has nowhere to show off as Philadelphia’s outfield is loaded with Shane Victorino, Raul Ibanez, and Jayson Werth. The silver lining? Werth is in the last year of his deal and could be traded by the deadline. Brown’s recent promotion to Triple-A might be the Phillies’ way of getting him ready in the event that a roster spot opens up. Right now, though, he appears to be nothing more than a September call-up.
Jeremy Hellickson, SP, TB – The Rays started the season with a plethora of young arms in camp, and Hellickson was the odd man out and ready to jump in at the first sign of struggle in the Rays’ rotation. The problem for Hellickson turned out to be that Tampa Bay’s rotation was superb to start the year. Since then Wade Davis has come back to earth and is the most likely starter to be replaced, but it will probably take an injury for Hellickson to get his chance.
Daniel Hudson, SP, CHW – When Jake Peavy’s lat detached, Daniel Hudson latched on with the ChiSox. With a minor league strikeout-to-walk ratio of 4.18, Hudson is a prime candidate for successful spot starting with back-of-your-rotation potential.
Brett Wallace, 1B/3B, TOR – To answer your question, no, there is no more frustrating minor league player to keep tabs on than Wallace. When will the Jays promote him?! Apparently the organization has decided to demonstrate rare patience with their most Major League-ready prospect. Wallace strikes out at a decent clip (around 25 percent) and doesn’t walk a ton, but he makes solid contact and is a line-drive hitter. He won’t ever be mistaken for Stanton, but when he gets the call someone will add him to their team.
Great post. Agree with it all, except for Alvarez and Wallace. Alvarez has shown improved plate discipline already (22:4 K/BB in June vs 13:3 in July). Plus, he has faced an absurd amount of lefties. He has 42 AB vs. LHP and 42 AB vs RHP. In comparison, Jay Bruce has 105 vs LHP and 218 vs. RHP, and Bruce is a player who gets LOOGY’s thrown at him late in games all the time.
Also, it appears that you like Wallace more than Alvarez, and mention his decent 25% K rate. Alvarez’s K rate in the minors was under 24%. I see Wallace as a poor man’s Alvarez, and love Alvarez in the second half.
Either way, good post. Check out my site if you wanna see the post I just made on Domonic Brown. He looks like a real super star in the making.
Thanks for the comment, Josh. Pretty comprehensive. I do agree on your Alvarez vs LHP point, but I still find 41.7% K rate to be hard to rationalize.
And nice site by the way…I’m glad your write-up on Brown included ample mention of his speed because I feel everyone still gets caught up in his power (since those massive Spring Training homers). As someone who owns Brown, I really hope Werth is traded.