Nationals fans waited over two months to finally see Stephen Strasburg in Washington red and white (and a touch of blue). With the team’s playoff candidacy coming to an end, fans will likely see the Future of the Franchise end his season prematurely as well.
And Strasburg isn’t the only young starter to worry about. Fellow National League Rookie of the Year candidates Mat Latos and Jaime Garcia face a similar fate, and Phil Hughes is likely to get shut down early as the Yankees climb towards clinching a playoff berth.
Credit the “Verducci Effect” for the sudden concern about the wear and tear on young starters’ arms. In case you have no idea what I’m talking about, the Verducci Effect basically states that increasing a young pitcher’s workload by more than 30 innings from season to season dramatically increases the likelihood of injury or ineffectiveness the following season.
In roto leagues you can factor in each player’s innings cap and adjust their value accordingly, but all you head-to-headers have more reason for concern. As great as those four starters have been this season – and if you’ve been paying attention at all you know they’ve been among the most reliable in the game – they hold zero value for you come playoff time as they sit in the bullpen preparing for 2011.
So which young starters do you really have to worry about? Let’s take a look.
Stephen Strasburg
The Nationals have absolutely nothing to play for and manager Jim Riggleman has already said that Strasburg will not exceed 160 innings combined between the majors and minors. He threw 55.1 innings between Double- and Triple-A and has contributed 42.2 innings for Washington thus far, so with a little math we see that Strasburg has 62 innings left. He’s averaged about 6.1 innings per start, so it’s safe to say that Strasburg has 10 starts left in him. If Riggleman keeps Strasburg on four days rest for the remainder of the season, we won’t be seeing his electric fastball or devastating change-up past September 1.
Recommendation: If you have a playoff spot almost assured and you’re in a head-to-head, non-keeper league, trade Strasburg while his value is high for someone who can actually help you in the playoffs.
Mat Latos
Back in March, the Padres expected Latos to throw around 150 innings (in accordance with the Verducci Effect). What they didn’t expect was to be atop the NL West after the All-Star break and for Latos to be an NL Cy Young candidate… you know, if Ubaldo Jimenez wasn’t 15-1 and Josh Johnson didn’t have an ERA that more resembled gas prices 10 years ago. If San Diego’s success continues, you’d think Latos would keep taking the ball every fifth day.
Recommendation: As of now I’m inclined to believe Latos will exceed his expected innings limit, but be very wary as we move towards mid-August and September. If/when San Diego fades, look to sell in a head-to-head, non-keeper league.
Jaime Garcia
Kudos to Baseball Professor’s own George Fitopoulos for jumping on Garcia at the first signs of sustained success back in April. That move looks even smarter after hearing Cardinals’ manager Tony LaRussa speak about Garcia’s potential innings limit:
Right now this guy is throwing the ball as well as any starting pitcher around. These games have gone well for him. He hasn’t been out of whack. We haven’t said right now that he’s not throwing more than 175 innings or something.
That was all the way back in late May, but I do find it interesting that he pinpointed 175 innings as number to target. Right now, as long as Cincinnati continues to challenge for the NL Central title, the Cardinals will need every quality start they can get.
Recommendation: Full steam ahead!
Phil Hughes
While we’re quoting people, consider what Yankees’ GM Brian Cashman said about limiting Hughes’ innings this season:
We definitely don’t want to win at the expense of somebody’s health. We want to win and protect our players. Our players are our assets. The health of this organization both short- and long-term is only as good as the health of our players. We want to ensure we have a bright present and a bright future.
The Yankees might be shopping for a starting pitcher after missing out on Cliff Lee which would allow them to bump Hughes to the bullpen to keep his innings down and add a quality arm in the late innings, a role Hughes succeeded in last season. The Yankees could then march out an October rotation of C.C. Sabathia, Andy Pettitte, A.J. Burnett and Javier Vazquez/[insert pitcher here] and be very competitive. While no definite limit has been set, it’s believed that Hughes won’t exceed 170-180 innings, which is still a pretty high total. To that end, the Yankees are giving Hughes off-days whenever the schedule allows it.
Recommendation: Monitor the situation up until the trade deadline in a couple weeks. If the Yankees land a starter a la Ted Lilly, sell Hughes quickly. Even if their rotation stays as is, you should probably look to sell in head-to-head leagues. And no, Hughes probably isn’t a keeper except in very deep keeper formats.
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