Archive | July, 2010

Underrated Joel Pineiro Out 6-8 Weeks

By on July 29, 2010 | Comments { 0 }

Yesterday, I managed to get the day off and thought I would treat myself to a little afternoon baseball. Luckily, my beloved Red Sox were taking on the Angels and one of my fantasy starters (Joel Pineiro) was slated to take the mound.

But no, Pineiro strained his oblique muscle during warm-ups and is now on the shelf for 6-8 weeks, basically ruining what was turning into a pretty good follow up to his breakout 2009 season.

There was a lot of skepticism when Pineiro moved to the American League because he isn’t an overpowering pitcher (5.58 K/9 in 1458 1/3 IP). Facing a designated hitter instead of an opposing pitcher should spell disaster for someone like that. Add in the fact that he was no longer with pitching coach Dave Duncan and there were plenty of reasons to doubt him.

I wrote an article in the preseason about drafting pitchers and mentioned that if you could handle the paltry strikeout numbers, Pineiro was a bargain at the end of drafts. If you look at his numbers so far this season (4.18 ERA, 1.31 WHIP, 83:32 K:BB in 131 1/3 IP) you would sit there unimpressed, but the truth is he has been very valuable especially in head-to-head leagues.

Pineiro still induces groundballs at a 55.4 percent rate, which is down from his 60.5 mark last season but still seventh in the majors. In 20 starts, Pineiro has allowed fewer than three earned runs in 14 of them.

If we split his season up in the good and the ugly you will see how useful Pineiro has been when he’s been on his game:

Pineiro has been absolute lights out in his 14 quality starts and there’s a good chance you would have started him in most of them because 10 of them were at home where Pineiro has posted a 7-2 record with a 2.37 ERA and 1.11 WHIP this season. In fact, the only start at home where he allowed more than three earned runs was against the New York Yankees on April 24.

Pineiro isn’t on the level of No. 1 or even No. 2 starters, but he has been more useful than most realize. So before you quickly dismiss Pineiro’s injury, take a second to realize the type of season Pineiro was having.

I told you to target him before the season and he more than backed me up so don’t make the same mistake in 2011.

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Buy or Sell: Dan Haren Primed for a Big Second Half?

By on July 24, 2010 | Comments { 0 }

In our first installment of our weekly buy low/sell high article I will focus on two pitchers with very different reputations. On the one side, Dan Haren is notoriously known for his second-half fades and on the other side, we have John Lackey who is normally better in the second half. Pay attention because I am recommending you go against the grain in regards to both these players.

Dan Haren (SP) Arizona Diamondbacks

Why I’m buying: I wrote about Dan Haren‘s alarming second-half splits before the season, but this year he hasn’t been his usual dominant self before the All-Star break. In all fairness, Haren has pitched very well this year (4.58 K/BB, 3.39 xFIP), but has been a victim of bad luck (13.9% HR/FB, .350 BABIP). Now, he’s being mentioned in trade rumors with multiple teams, but the one team that really stands out to me is St. Louis. If Haren somehow lands on his former team, his season could be resurrected as Dave Duncan has turned pitchers with much less talent into quality fantasy options. With his current performance and second half reputation Haren is worth taking a chance on especially with the fact that he could be on the move. Even if he lands in the American League, maybe a change of scenery is all Haren needs to shake his second half curse.

John Lackey (SP) Boston Red Sox

Why I’m selling: John Lackey is in the midst of a little hot streak and coming off a game where he came four outs away from no-hitting the Seattle Mariners. Before we get too carried away, however, let’s remember that the Mariners are not the New York Yankees. Hell, they aren’t even the Baltimore Orioles as their .236 team batting average ranks worst in Major League Baseball. Despite the recent hot streak, Lackey is posting career-worst numbers in strikeouts (5.41 K/9) and walks (3.45 BB/9). Look at this more as a window to sell to someone who still views Lackey as a potential top 25 starter, rather than the pitcher he actually is.

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Bullpen Coach – Week 16

By on July 22, 2010 | Comments { 0 }

If you’re in the market for saves, now is the perfect time to start making some speculative closer adds. After all, there’s nothing more frustrating than going to add a newly appointed closer who was just picked up. With the non-waiver trading deadline rapidly approaching, here are a few relief pitchers who could be closing by next week:

Brandon League, Seattle Mariners

If you’ve been following the rumor mill, you’ve certainly heard David Aardsma’s name come up a few times. If those rumors come to fruition, expect League to take over as Seattle’s closer. Equipped with a mid-90’s fastball and a hard slider, he has prototypical closer stuff. Although it would be nice if League would strike out more than 6.8 batters per nine innings, he’s still having a nice season. His ERA currently stands at 3.67 and his WHIP is a healthy 1.22.

As for Aardsma, he’ll probably lose all his value if he’s traded as he will likely become a set-up man for a contender.

Drew Storen, Washington Nationals

If Matt Capps is traded, expect Storen and not Tyler Clippard to handle the closers role. While it’s true that Clippard has been the primary set-up guy all year, Storen is clearly the Nationals closer of the future. It would make sense for Washington to let him get his feet wet as closer so he’ll be prepared for the role in 2011. In addition, Clippard hasn’t pitched well recently. Over the past month he has an ERA of 9.00 and a WHIP of 2.00.

Much like Aardsma, Capps likely won’t be closing if he’s traded to a contender.

Joel Hanrahan, Pittsburgh Pirates

As good as Evan Meek, Pittsburgh’s lone All-Star representative, has been, expect Joel Hanrahan to take over closing duties if Octavio Dotel is traded. Not only does Hanrahan have closing experience, but he’s having a fine season as Pittsburgh‘s 8th inning guy. He’s improved his walk rate dramatically from last year and he’s striking out more than 12 batters per nine innings. However, keep your eye on Meek as Hanrahan could be traded as well as Dotel.

Now let’s take a look at two more closing situations worth watching.

Chicago White Sox

After another Bobby Jenks implosion, manager Ozzie Guillen declared his team’s closer position wide open. I expect J.J. Putz, and his dazzling 1.50 ERA and 0.78 WHIP, to get the first crack at the job with Matt Thornton getting the occasional save when multiple lefties are due up.

Although Guillen envisions Jenks reclaiming the role once he starts pitching better, I wouldn’t bank on that. Chicago is in the middle of a pennant race and if Putz keeps dominating opposing batters it will be very hard to remove him from the role.

Arizona Diamondbacks

I really don’t want to recommend anyone in this historically bad bullpen but like a starting running back in fantasy football, a closer has to be owned…right? Although manager Kirk Gibson won’t name a closer, Juan Gutierrez has recorded the last two saves, albeit not pretty ones. He has allowed 13 home runs on the season so I would only pick him up if I was desperate for saves.

As for Chad Qualls, he will probably get another chance to close unless he‘s traded before the deadline. However, he can’t seem to pitch a scoreless inning and I would advise keeping him on your bench until he can string together a couple of scoreless outings.

Sam Demel is the sleeper of the group. Since coming over from Oakland, he’s been Arizona’s best relief pitcher and has closing experience in the minors. However, Gibson has refused to give him a chance in the ninth and keeps throwing Gutierrez and Qualls out there.

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On Deck Circle – Hitters Review, Week 16

By on July 22, 2010 | Comments { 1 }

Last season, Franklin Gutierrez had somewhat of a breakout year. I use the adjective somewhat because I viewed it more as a set up to a true breakout year in 2010.

Gutierrez finished 2009 with a .283/.339/.425 triple-slash line and 18 home runs with 16 stolen bases. I viewed him as a solid third outfielder in 10-team mixed leagues going into the season especially with Ichiro and Chone Figgins batting ahead of him in the lineup.

Gutierrez was proving me right in April (.323 batting average), but since the calendar turned to May he has been struggling at the plate. He now sits with a disappointing .251/.324/.379 triple-slash line and despite solid power/speed numbers (8 HR and 13 SB) he has hardly been worth a roster spot over the last three months.

Looking at the numbers, Gutierrez has improved his walk rate (10.1% up from 7.3% in 2009), but has also been striking out more (24.2% up from 21.6% in 2009). If you look even deeper into his approach at the plate you will see that he is swinging at 27.1 percent of pitches outside the strike zone (23.2% in 2009) and 56.5 percent of pitches inside the strike zone (59.4% in 2009). Coincidentally, his contact outside the strike zone has gone up (60.5%), which probably describes his decrease in line drives as he isn’t making as good of contact.

There is no doubt that Gutierrez has been in an extended funk this season, but he has still managed eight home runs and 13 stolen bases. If he can correct his approach at the plate, there is some value to be had in the second half as I think he can recapture that magic from the beginning of the season. I’m still holding onto some hope.

Three Up

Aramis Ramirez, 3B, Chicago Cubs

On June 7, Aramis Ramirez landed himself of the DL with a .168 batting average, but has been on an absolute tear batting .438 (21-for-48) over the past 12 games with nine home runs and 24 RBI. It looks like he is healthy again and owners should be all-in on this perennial .300-30-100 threat.

Derrek Lee, 1B, Chicago Cubs

Sticking with the Cubs theme, Derrek Lee is starting to hit as he has a .423 batting average with two home runs and eight RBI in the past week. Lee was a late bloomer last year, but showed he could still be a valuable asset in fantasy and it looks like he’s getting ready for that second half surge again.

Yunel Escobar, SS, Toronto Blue Jays

Maybe a change of scenery was all he needed because in four games since being traded, Yunel Escobar has hit .471 with two home runs and seven RBI. Unfortunately, a hand injury has benched him the last two days, but Escobar is listed as day-to-day, which means it isn’t anything serious. Don’t forget this guy was a .300-15-75 guy last year.

Three Down

Nick Markakis, OF, Baltimore Orioles

I’m just about done with Nick Markakis because he gets the most value out of a .300 batting average that I’ve ever seen. Markakis provides you with waiver-wire power and speed yet he’s considered a keeper in most formats. Markakis has just four hits in his last 23 at-bats and hasn’t collected a run, home run or RBI in that span. Color me pessimistic, but give me Josh Willingham for the price of free over the overrated Markakis.

Chone Figgins, 2B/3B, Seattle Mariners

Who knew that a move from Los Angeles to Seattle would have this sort of effect on Chone Figgins? Sure the 24 steals are good, but he’s batting just .226 on the season and has two hits in his last 21 at-bats. I tend to be more patient than the average owner, but even I am stretching my patience with this guy.

Chris Davis, 1B/3B, Texas Rangers

How many of you scurried to your computers/iPhones/iPads to pick up Chris Davis after Justin Smoak was sent out of town? If you raised your hand, use that same hand to slap yourself in the face. I’m sorry, but it’s only your fault if you believed in someone who spends the better part of every year in the minor leagues. Davis has resumed his striking out ways (22 K in 81 AB) and has just a .185 average. Save yourself the headache and stay away from this heartbreaker.

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What Happened to Mike Pelfrey?

By on July 20, 2010 | Comments { 1 }

Mike Pelfrey has never been known for his pinpoint control. In fact, throughout the minors and majors he has only stayed under three walks per nine innings once (2.87 BB/9 in 2008).

However, while his tendency to give up the occasional free pass has hurt him in the past, something changed this year that made him a very effective pitcher – that is until a start against the Florida Marlins on June 30 derailed his season.

In his first 14 starts this season, Pelfrey went 10-2 with a 2.71 ERA and a 1.22 WHIP but posted a record of 0-3 with a 12.89 ERA and 3.41 WHIP over his next four starts. While Pelfrey had some signs of regression I was still a believer he could be effective in 2010.

Trying to decipher this Jekyl-and-Hyde act isn’t easy, but I’ve sifted through the numbers for you and I think have figured out what has plagued Pelfrey over the last month. First, let’s take a look at his peripheral stats by month: (July stats do not count his start against Arizona on July 19)

It’s never a good sign when a pitcher’s strikeout rate decreases steadily every month. This means more contact is being made and with the ballooning walk rate (8.1 BB/9 in July), more runners are on base for when this contact occurs, which is a bad combination. Pelfrey was doing a good job limiting his walks, especially in June (1.99 BB/9 in June), but has gotten away from the approach that worked for him all season – throwing fastballs for strikes. It has often been said that a good, controlled fastball sets up a pitcher’s secondary pitches and keeps hitters off balance. Take a look at the following chart from texasleaguers.com:

Pelfrey has been throwing his fastball fewer times and less effectively. It’s always been said that a good fastball is key to setting up secondary pitches, so could it be that Pelfrey’s ineffective fastball has ruined the rest of his game? It’s clear that batters are being more patient with his fastball (37.8% swing rate in last four games) and Pelfrey is going to have to throw it for strikes more often than 55 percent of the time to make players change their approach.

It’s true that Pelfrey has fallen into some bad luck as he has a BABIP of .483 in July despite a 52.6% groundball rate. With the increase in walks this bad luck has been especially hurtful with the extra men on base via the walk.

It’s safe to say that Pelfrey is in a funk and there’s no telling on whether he will fix it soon, or at all. He is droppable in shallow leagues, but in deeper formats he should be stashed on the bench until some improvement is shown because you cannot just disregard his first three months and the value he can bring to your team in the final months of the season.

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Mound Visit – Starting Pitching Review, Week 16

By on July 19, 2010 | Comments { 0 }

Ubaldo Jimenez is on pace for 28 wins, Josh Johnson has 1.62 ERA, the Phillies lost three straight Roy Halladay starts in two of the last three months and apparently the only thing that can stop Mat Latos is a sore oblique. Who saw all that coming?

Well, aside from a German octopus of course.

Needless to say, it was a crazy first half that turned the fantasy world on its head. It’s long been “known” that hitters are more important than pitchers, but the sheer volume of ace-like arms to be found this season is astonishing. George Fitopoulos already got us started with our second-half previews earlier in the week and the Baseball Professor fantasy triumvirate already pinpointed Travis Wood, Ricky Nolasco and Gavin Floyd as starters you should be targeting, but we’ll dig a little deeper today and look at what we can expect in the coming months.

Maybe Joe Torre Isn’t as Crazy as We All Thought

Torre received a lot of criticism for tabbing Vicente Padilla as his Opening Day starter. Eleven earned runs and 14 hits in 8.2 innings against Pittsburgh and Florida didn’t do much for the Dodgers skipper’s cause, and Padilla vanished from the rotation for nearly two months. He was spotted again on the hill for the Dodgers on June 19 and was roughed up again at Fenway Park, but since then Padilla has looked like the 200-inning monster we saw in 2003. Over his last five starts, Padilla has gone 3-1 with a 1.30 ERA, 0.75 WHIP and a 28:8 K:BB ratio. Compared to starts earlier in the season, Padilla is now keeping the ball down with better horizontal movement. His strand rate during that five-game stretch is high and his BABIP is low, but his improved control and 3.36 FIP in July make him a player to watch.

Believe It or Not, Mr. Consistency Resides in Chicago

Consistency and the Chicago Cubs are rarely found together, but perhaps that’s what makes Ryan Dempster one of fantasy’s most underrated performers. Dempster has allowed exactly two or three earned runs over his last eight outings with six quality starts over that span. Additionally, he’s struck out seven, eight or nine batters in 11 of his last 14 starts and is 6-3 in his last 10. He won’t win a week for you, but he certainly won’t lose one.

Gavin’s at It Again

On the surface, Gavin Floyd‘s 5-8 record, 4.10 ERA and 1.32 WHIP are rather pedestrian, but that’s why now is the time to buy. In the second half last year, Floyd was brilliant. His 3.49 ERA and 1.11 WHIP easily bested his first half totals. For an encore performance, Floyd seems set on topping those stats. Over the last month, the White Sox righty has earned three wins by compiling a 1.35 ERA and 1.02 WHIP in 33.1 innings. Now is the time to buy, so if Floyd is available, go get him. Where does Floyd rank among all starters from here on out? I feel comfortable putting him in the top 25 along with first-half studs Carl Pavano and Roy Oswalt while creeping up on the aforementioned Dempster.

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Cliff Lee: The Most Efficient Pitcher in the World

By on July 18, 2010 | Comments { 0 }

I was watching last night’s Red Sox-Rangers game and as Cliff Lee was retiring hitter after hitter after hitter I kept thinking to myself is this guy really this good? It wasn’t just the outs, but it was how he was getting them. Four times he retired the side in order in fewer than 10 pitches, which allowed him to enter the ninth inning with a pitch count of 85 pitches.

Unfortunately he allowed the tying run in the ninth, which spoiled his chance for a complete game victory, but that outing got me thinking; Cliff Lee doesn’t get enough respect in fantasy baseball these days.

When thinking of the top pitchers in baseball the names Roy Halladay, Tim Lincecum, Felix Hernandez and Adam Wainwright come regularly into the conversation. Then you have the up-and-coming guys like Jon Lester, Ubaldo Jimenez and Josh Johnson knocking on their door.

Where does that leave poor Cliff Lee? He’s only won a Cy Young award and has been the hottest pitching commodity during the last two trade deadlines.

And yet, people don’t seem to give him the credit he deserves because right now he is arguably the best pitcher in baseball. He has pitched as many complete games as league leader Roy Halladay in five fewer starts and leads the league with a 0.94 WHIP.

On Wednesday, I named him one of the best values among starting pitchers so far in fantasy baseball and keep in mind that he missed all of April with an oblique injury.

A couple of things stand out when you look at Cliff Lee’s peripherals. First, his 13.85 K/BB ratio is off the charts as he bests second place Roy Halladay (6.74 K/BB) by a healthy margin. Cliff Lee is helped by his Brett Saberhagen-like control (7 BB in 121 2/3 IP) and his ability to get ahead of hitters (70 % F-Strike percentage), which allows him to go deeper into games thus increasing his chance to rack up the wins.

Lee is one of those pitchers that does everything right and while he doesn’t put up gaudy strikeout numbers, the gains in all the other categories make him more valuable than guys like Tim Lincecum, C.C. Sabathia and Felix Hernandez.

For the rest of the season I would rank Lee fifth among starting pitchers behind Adam Wainwright, Ubaldo Jimenez, Roy Halladay and Josh Johnson.

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