Last week I didn’t get a chance to compile my weekly ratings until Thursday, so we’re operating on a four-day week. Even though a couple guys on this list didn’t get a chance to make a start, most of them did and it was enough to drastically shuffle up some portions of the rankings.
Jon Lester seems to be getting back on track with two straight outings without allowing a run, barely holding off Ubaldo Jimenez‘s assault on the top 10.
And remember when I said Dan Haren, C.C. Sabathia and Adam Wainwright would likely flip-flop all season? Well, all three occupy new spots in the rankings this week with Sabathia taking the lead.
Matt Garza continues to climb, but he may have reached his peak. I love his potential, but I have a hard time envisioning him as a borderline top-10 player.
I wrote a mini post this week about Jonathan Sanchez and how he draws comparisons (statistically) to A.J. Burnett. Sanchez checks in at 41 this week while Burnett finds himself 15 spots higher at 26. The large gap is due to Burnett’s history, but in reality all of the players wedged in between the two are very close.
Before we get into the individual player spotlights, let’s take a quick look at our three newcomers. Barry Zito, Phil Hughes and Colby Lewis all join the rankings at 48, 49 and 50, respectively. I’ve been hesitant to add all three for a variety of reasons, but I couldn’t ignore their success anymore. Zito has been impressive over his last 35-plus starts dating back to 2009, and Lewis is finally living up to the potential he had years ago. As for Hughes, the Yankees intend to limit his innings but that isn’t a major concern early in the season. However, it will prevent him from ascending too high.
Oh, and because it’s a short week we’re not going to overreact. There will be just two “Surging” and “Falling” players each.
Surging
Cliff Lee, Seattle Mariners
I have long been irrationally skeptical of Lee, and I can admit that. I’m always afraid the old 5.00 ERA starter will re-emerge even though he’s done nothing to warrant those fears. Lee has consistently fallen in my rankings as others around him have succeeded. After going seven innings with eight strikeouts and only two hits allowed, Lee is on the move.
Matt Cain, San Francisco Giants
Many of Cain’s 2009 peripherals suggested he may be due for regression, but that’s not been the case so far. Whereas his FIP was exactly a run higher than his actual ERA last season, the gap has narrowed considerably this year while Cain still posts a sub-3.00 ERA. He only has one win, which isn’t unexpected with the Giants’ offense backing him, but his walk rate is down to 1.99 BB/9. We know he can get a lot of people out, and now it looks like he’s done issuing free passes.
Falling
Cole Hamels, Philadelphia Phillies
I was very high on Hamels entering 2010, but he has just one quality start in five games so far. He’s striking out a lot of batters (10.57 K/9) but his OBA is nearly identical to last season. There are some signs that Hamels has been unlucky so far – high BABIP with depressed LD% – but I’m going to need to see some success.
Javier Vazquez, New York Yankees
Vazquez landed here last week so I didn’t want to put him here again, but then news broke that he would be missing his next scheduled start against Boston to work on his mechanics. That initiated another drop in the rankings.
On the mend
Jair Jurrjens, Atlanta Braves
The strained hamstring isn’t too serious, but Bobby Cox has pushed his start back to May 8. Hopefully he’ll give you a nice boost as fantasy weeks wrap up this weekend, but it’s a little risky banking on him to a) be effective, b) go deep into his outing or c) actually start the game (who knows if there will be a setback).
Down on the farm
Aroldis Chapman, Cincinnati Reds
Don’t forget about the flame-throwing Cuban. So far in his professional career, Chapman has struck out 30 batters in 26 innings, but he’s also issued 13 walks. His 3.12 ERA is pretty solid, but he’ll need better control to be successful in the Majors. With rookie Mike Leake succeeding in the Reds’ rotation (2-1, 2.94 ERA), there’s no rush to get Chapman up.
Strasburg got promoted to AAA Syracuse today, there’s another Down On The Farm.
Haha yeah I’m excited about Strasburg. Most experts I’ve read say he’ll be up in a month. The NL isn’t ready for what it’s going to see.