We’ve been a bit lax in our coverage these last two weeks while we dealt with a minor site redesign and some improved back-end support.
The result is a better, sleeker, improved Baseball Professor. To prove we’re back with our tremendously tremendous coverage (to quote the announcers from the Bruins-Flyers series), I present to you this week’s Sunday Survey.
In case you don’t know what this is, each week we send a series of questions to a select number of writers/bloggers we’ve deemed knowledgeable, and they send back their answers for us to compile into one informative post. Each week we also let one member of the Baseball Professor staff chime in. This week it’s me.
Here are the survey questions and answers for week five.
Q. In the past weeks, the Mets have called up Ike Davis and the Rangers have called up Justin Smoak. Both have been nothing short of impressive in the minors, so if you had to gamble on one of them to break out this season, which would you take?
Mark Schruender – Fantasy Baseball Hot Stove
Hmm…The Ballpark in Arlington or that endless patch of grass in New York? We don’t know how well either of these guys will adjust to the pitchers who will soon make adjustments on them, so I have to go on the ballparks. I’ll take Smoak.
Matt Gelfand – Bleacher Report
I actually just dropped Davis for Smoak in my 12-team RotoWire Staff league. The reason? Smoak’s track record. He was the No. 13 ranked prospect by Baseball America heading into the season, and hit .290 with 21 doubles and 12 home runs between Double-A and Triple-A last season. Ike Davis entered 2010 at No. 62, but got the call-up earlier than expected because the pop-less Mets couldn’t live with Fernando Tatis as their starting first baseman anymore (not that I blame them). That being said, I still believe Smoak’s got a higher ceiling, and once that Rangers lineup starts to click, RBI opportunities will be plentiful whether he’s batting out of the 6 or 7 hole.
Bryan Curley - Baseball Professor
Currently I have Ike Davis on my roster, but that’s only because he was called up first. I would have dropped Davis for Justin Smoak had I acted quickly enough, but someone else beat me to him. Davis has the clearer path to an everyday starting job since Fernando Tatis and Daniel Murphy are the only obstacles between Davis and at-bats while Smoak deals with Chris Davis, who Texas keeps giving extended chances, but I think Smoak is the better hitter in a better ballpark. He’s the guy to get.
Q. There are plenty of consensus top 100 players struggling right now (many of which are on my team unfortunately). Of these three, which do you think is least likely to rebound: Aramis Ramirez, Aaron Hill or Carlos Lee?
Mark Schruender - Fantasy Baseball Hot Stove
I hate to say it, but Aramis Ramirez. I wonder if the shoulder injury that caused him to miss half of last year is still bothering him and keep in mind this guy has never been one to go for perfect attendance. I think Aaron Hill is a great player and I am most confident that he will turn it around – remember he is a couple weeks behind so his rate numbers will adjust faster.
Matt Gelfand - Bleacher Report
There’s cause for concern with each player. Is Ramirez’s shoulder injury from last season still lingering? Hopefully it hasn’t sapped all of his power. Plus he’s had at least one strikeout in all but six games this season, and sports a relatively ugly 25:8 strikeout/walk ratio. We all expected a regression from Hill, but many figured his numbers would resemble that of 2007 (.291/17/78/4) rather than the putrid .150 he’s currently batting (with one home run). A hamstring injury, which caused him to miss 15 days, may be partly to blame. And Lee, surprisingly the only one without a home run on this list, is mired in one of the worst slumps of his career. For what it’s worth, April is typically his worst month (.259 BA), then he tends straightens things out over the remainder of the season. The four-year plunge in his home run totals from 2006 to 2009 (37, 32, 28, 26) is cause for concern though. Least likely to rebound? Common sense would say Hill, who doesn’t quite have the track record of the other two, making a drastic regression an actual possibility.
Bryan Curley - Baseball Professor
This question obviously comes down to two aging players and one player on the rise in his career (although he’s technically aging, too). Aramis Ramirez has injury concerns, but he picked right back up where he left off last year, especially at the end of the season when he batted .302 with four home runs and 19 RBI in September and October. He did miss time this spring with a triceps injury, so maybe that time off is hurting him early on this year (like it is with Raul Ibanez). I still think Aaron Hill will rebound, but not quite reach last season’s numbers, so I’m going with the oldest player of the bunch: the almost-34 year old Carlos Lee.
Q. This is more of an open-ended question. After a torrid start to the season, Francisco Liriano has consistently worked his way up my starting pitching rankings. As of Friday, April 30, Liriano is 3-0 with a 0.93 ERA and 0.97 WHIP with 27 strikeouts in 29 innings pitched. The only possible blemish to his stellar start are the 10 walks allowed. What is your take on how Liriano’s 2010 season will play out?
Mark Schruender - Fantasy Baseball Hot Stove
My biggest concern with Liriano is how cautious the Twins will be with him going forward. His career high in innings pitched is 136.2 innings, but he’s on pace to throw well over 200 innings right now. That sort of jump is not in the best interest in the long term future of Liriano and consequently the Twins. He had 112 pitches in his last start and I am anxious to see if that is more the exception than the rule going forward. Whatever innings he does give this season though look great obviously.
Matt Gelfand - Bleacher Report
As a Liriano owner, I’d like to say a 20-win season and Cy Young award are in the cards. And while those expectations are probably pipe dreams, it’s hard to ignore Liriano right now since he’s pitching like a legitimate ace. With respect to Scott Baker and Kevin Slowey, Liriano is the one pitcher on that Twins staff that teams truly fear right now. His heralded slider is as devastating as advertised, and his fastball is touching 95. I think the fact that it’s been nearly four years since he’s been truly effective may actually work to his advantage, since the book on Liriano in other team’s clubhouses is probably quite dusty. I’d be weary of a second half drop-off due to fatigue, but based on his stats right now, 15 wins and a sub-3.50 ERA doesn’t seem too outlandish.
Bryan Curley - Baseball Professor
I just bumped Liriano from 34 to 17 in my weekly rankings so you obviously see how highly I rank him, but I’m totally selling on him if you can get good value in return. While he pitches, he will continue to produce as a top-15 starter, but health is never a certainty with someone who’s had the injury history Liriano has. The Twins will likely take it easy with him as the season progresses, especially if they run away with the division which is certainly a possibility.
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