It took him a few weeks to get my full endorsement, but after watching a few starts and looking at season and career trends, I’m here to tell you that Jonathan Sanchez is legit.
In the interest of full disclosure, Sanchez isn’t without his flaws. He’s one of the most erratic pitchers in the league, walking 5.6 batters per nine innings this season, and is prone to deep counts, high pitch totals and a lot of early exits.
However, the innings he does give you are quality innings. And while he does walk a lot of batters, few reach base via a hit of some sort. Check out his OBA numbers for each year of his career:
2006 – .250
2007 – .284
2008 – .257
2009 – .221
2010 – .170
The .170 OBA so far this season is highly unsustainable, but notice the downward trend each season. Last year we saw Clayton Kershaw finish the season with an OBA of .200 so numbers that low are attainable, and Sanchez has the ability to approach that. His opponents’ contact rates have dropped by about two percentage points each season during his short career, confirming the improvements in OBA we just saw.
If you’re still worried that the old Sanchez will rear his ugly head, you should probably know his xFIPs:
2006 – 5.40
2007 – 4.18
2008 – 4.14
2009 – 4.19
2010 – 4.04
These numbers suggest that Sanchez has been pretty consistent throughout his career, never too bad but never anything great. So what’s different this season?
Well, remember the definition of xFIP. Like normal FIP, it’s a way of showing how well a pitcher really pitched beyond his superficial stats, but it takes it a step further by neutralizing ballpark factors and team defense. This means a pitcher with a poor defense or hitter’s ballpark behind him will likely have an ERA higher than their xFIP and vice versa.
This season, San Francisco is fifth in fielding percentage. They were 13th in 2009 and 18th in 2008, so Sanchez’s improved performance is likely tied to the team’s better defensive play.
A better defense behind him, lower opponents’ contact rates, and already high strikeout totals. While Sanchez won’t continue to post a sub-3.00 ERA, he should finish the season with an ERA in the 3.50-4.00 range and a WHIP around 1.30-1.35 with about 180 Ks.
Not great numbers but that sounds a lot like A.J. Burnett to me, and I guarantee Sanchez has a lower asking price.
