We’re all familiar with the concept of someone being “due.” If you’ve ever been to a casino, you’ve probably seen the poor sap standing at the roulette wheel who bets on black time and time again. It’s been red six straight times. The next one has to be a winner.
Players go through the same streaks of luck, except they can be harder to diagnose just by looking at your standard stat sheet. If you’ve be handcuffed by Victor Martinez‘s poor start, I feel your pain. The guy is hitting the ball, but he’s not getting any of those breaks.
But before you jump ship on some of this season’s early strugglers, make sure their slumps aren’t just the result of a few bloops that didn’t go their way. Here’s a list of a few players (by position) that will soon see success without having to make major changes at the plate. For these guys, the only problem is that their stat lines don’t represent how they’ve actually been performing.
C - Victor Martinez, Boston Red Sox
2010: .239/.300/.326, 1 HR, 7 RBI, 10 R
Martinez has been one of the Red Sox’ many problems during their 12-14 start, but his struggles should soon come to an end. His BABIP is just .247 (career .311) but his LD% is 2.7 points higher than his career average. He’s not striking out often at all – once every 15.3 AB – and he has the fifth best contact rate among the 267 batters with at least 50 plate appearances. Once Jacoby Ellsbury returns to the top of the Boston order and the team breaks out of its season-long funk (which they appeared to do in a 17-8 route of the Angels last night), Martinez should again look like one of the game’s elite catching options.
1B – Mark Teixeira, New York Yankees
2010: .181/.325/.298, 2 HR, 12 RBI, 13 R
Did I really have to tell you Teixeira would do better than his current .181 average? No, but his struggles aren’t all on him. Teixeira is currently sporting a sickening .211 BABIP (career .306) to go along with the same mid-19 LD% he’s had for five of the last six seasons. His contact rate is the highest it’s ever been in his career and his walk rate is up, too. Other than the BABIP, Teixeira’s biggest problem is his HR/FB rate, which sits at a lowly 7.1 percent. To put that into perspective, he’s only once had a HR/FB rate lower than 17.8 percent during his seven-year career. It should be noted that he’s hitting more ground balls than usual right now and Yankee Stadium isn’t nearly as home run friendly as it was last season, but Teixeira is due for a turnaround very soon.
2B – Mark DeRosa, San Francisco Giants
2010: .214/.321/.286, 1 HR, 7 RBI, 8 R
In the first 10 years of his career, DeRosa had never topped 13 home runs or 74 RBI. Since 2008 he’s averaged 22 home runs and 91 RBI. Where did that guy go? Like with the other two we’ve looked at, DeRosa is currently suffering from a low BABIP (.246, career .310) despite a good LD% (20.7) and better-than-ever contact. There are some questions surrounding DeRosa, mainly how the move to San Francisco’s ballpark and lineup affect his numbers, but he should be doing better than this. Right now he’s hitting way too many ground balls (50.0%), while his HR/FB rate is the second-lowest of his career…even lower than when he was hitting 13 and fewer homers.
3B – Chipper Jones, Atlanta Braves
2010: .206/.372/.353, 1 HR, 6 RBI, 11 R, 2 SB
Jones’ .372 OBP is astounding to me. How do you hit .206 but get on base at that rate? A career-best 20.9 percent walk rate ought to do the trick. And you know what? His OBP would be higher if it weren’t for a nearly unheard of .218 BABIP (career .316). Jones isn’t striking out much more than his career average, and his LD% is actually better than his career average to this point, so what gives? Well, he wouldn’t be in this article if his numbers made a whole lot of sense. Jones’ contact rate is a little low right now, but with a LD% and strikeout rate within his career ranges that isn’t a big issue. His HR/FB rate is down a few percentage points, but at this stage of his career that isn’t unexpected. What you can still get put of Jones is a good average, OBP and RBI, and those will soon come around. It is worth noting that Jones is seeing more change-ups and curveballs in lieu of fastballs this season, but he’s rated as a plus hitter against those pitches for the duration of his career so it shouldn’t be a big issue.
SS – Yunel Escobar, Atlanta Braves
2010: .215/.295/.266, 0 HR, 8 RBI, 7 R, 2 SB
Currently rehabbing an injury, this has been a down season for a player whose career has been trending up. I’ll start off by saying there are some signs that luck isn’t the only big factor at play here because Escobar’s LD% is an abysmal 11.6 percent, but his .243 BABIP (career .321) is still pretty bad. His walks are slightly up, his strikeouts are slightly down and his contact is better than any other year, but something needs to be done about those line drives. Still, he shouldn’t be doing this poorly.
OF – Jason Kubel, Minnesota Twins
2010: .203/.344/.304, 2 HR, 10 RBI, 7 R
I don’t think anyone really expected 28 home runs and 103 RBI again, but this is disappointing. Kubel’s BABIP is a low .246 (career .302), he’s walking at an absurd 17.7 percent rate and his LD% is up from last season. His GB:FB ratio is dropping for the fourth straight season, which doesn’t necessarily bode well for his average, but it isn’t a steep drop off. The one factor we can’t take into account is how the new Target Field will play. Indications were that it was a hitter’s park, but remember it’s April in Minnesota. Kubel’s 8.0 percent HR/FB rate should increase, perhaps back to the 16.3 percent rate he had last season.
OF – Juan Rivera, Los Angeles Angels
2010: .250/.313/.409, 3 HR, 10 RBI, 11 R
Rivera is performing better than anyone we’ve looked at so far, but he’s capable of 25 home runs and 80-plus RBI and we’re not seeing that player. He’s never been a guy with a high BABIP (.286 career) but his .257 mark this season is a little low considering his LD% and strikeout rate are in line with career norms. The biggest problem is the 9.4 percent HR/FB rate, which hasn’t dipped below 10.7 percent since his rookie season and usually sits in the mid-13s. That little extra pop should be the difference.
OF – B.J. Upton, Tampa Bay Rays
2010: .242/.330/.440, 4 HR, 15 RBI, 19 R, 6 SB
Upton is actually having a pretty solid season aside from the batting average, but I thought it was important to address that since it has been plummeting for a few years now. While the .242 mark seems expected given his .241 average last season and .273 average in 2008, it really should be higher. Upton is enduring a .273 BABIP, which seems only slightly unlucky, but he has a career .338 BABIP. His LD% is nearly identical to his rates in 2006 and 2008 when he had BABIPs of .313 and .344, respectively, so there is a lot of room for improvement there without Upton having to change his approach. His contact rates are a rather low as he’s swinging and missing at more pitches than ever before, but his resurgence in power is nice. All-in-all, a .270 to .280 average doesn’t seem out of the question with the way he’s playing right now.
No comments yet.