Archive | May, 2010

On Deck Circle – Top 75 Hitters, Week 7

By on May 20, 2010 | Comments { 1 }

I am getting married in a week.

You may have already known this because you noticed a slowdown in articles this past week and thought to yourself…”It’s OK, he’s probably off getting married somewhere.” Well, you were right, and it’s getting close to crunch time.

But you don’t care about my life, you just want my mediocre-sometimes-misleading fantasy advice.

Going with the marriage theme I singled out a group of players that you should be married to for the rest of the season and also players whom you should divorce before the pre-nup kicks in.

Match Made in Heaven

Robinson Cano, 2B, New York Yankees

Cano is off to  a torrid start and in case you haven’t been paying attention he’s this good. He poses the skills to win a batting title and can knock out 25 home runs in that bandbox of a stadium he calls home. Add in the fact that he plays in the best lineup in the majors and you have a .300/25/100/90 line that you can take to the bank.

Kelly Johnson, 2B, Arizona Diamonbacks

Before the season we talked about Kelly Johnson as a nice bounce back candidate and after a month and a half Kelly Johnson has put up elite numbers with 11 homers, 26 runs and 23 RBI. Am I buying the sudden power? Only a little, but I can see Johnson hitting 25 home runs with 10-15 steals and a .275 batting average, which is definitely more than I would have said at the beginning of the season.

Jayson Heyward, OF, Atlanta Braves

If you asked me before the season where Heyward would rank among all outfielders I would have said 35-40. Now, I think Heyward has a shot at ending the season in the 25-30 range with upside even higher. He’s young, so there will be a slump or two to endure, but his 29:22 K:BB ratio shows what great discipline he has at the plate.

Divorce Court (not the TV show)

Justin Morneau, 1B, Minnesota Twins

Justin Morneau is playing over his head right now and you could probably sell an owner that he is a top five first baseman. I say there is no way he ends the season in the top five and I’ll take it one step further…Morneau will finish the season outside the top SEVEN. You heard me right. Morneau is more likely to bat .280 than .320 and 30 homers rather than 35 homers so sell him while you can and cash yourself a pretty penny.

Vladimir Guerrero, UTIL, Texas Rangers

Another hot start by a guy who will definitely slow down come the summer months. He is 35 years old and will start to fatigue more as the season grows older. Plus, the hot Texas weather won’t help keep him fresh either.

Pickup of the week

Hank Blalock, 1B, Tampa Bay Rays

Do you remember how many home runs Hank Blalock hit just last year? If you guessed 25 then you are correct. Blalock definitely has power (32 HR in 2004) and shouldn’t kill you in the batting average category although he did hit .235 last year. He will be getting regular playing time at DH for the Rays and with that great offense around him there could be some good RBI opportunities. Blalock is prone to going on hot streaks for a month at a time and he’s worth a flier in 10-team mix leagues, but don’t be afraid to jump ship if he shows signs of slumping.

On the Mend

Grady Sizemore, OF, Cleveland Indians

The Indians placed Grady Sizemore on the 15-day DL with a bruised left knee, but it’s more likely that he is on the DL with a bruised ego. And it’s not just the left side of his ego, but the front, back and right side too. Sizemore is following his down 2009 season with an even worse 2010 campaign as he has yet to hit a home run and is batting a paltry .211 with 13 RBI. He has slumped so far that I would leave him outside my top 100 for hitters and that’s saying a lot considering he was a potential top 10 player going into the 2009 season. Oh, how things have changed.

Down on the Farm

Alex Gordon, 3B, Kansas City Royals

Gordon better be collecting those frequent flier miles because with the way he’s hitting in Triple-A the Royals will most definitely bring him back up for another shot. In 14 games, Gordon has  a triple slash line of .385/.536/1.286 including five homers and 14 RBI. However, the best sign of all is his 14:15 K:BB ratio, which shows that he is approaching his at-bats better and if he can bring that approach to the major leagues we could see a potential breakout candidate for the second half. Or we could just be disappointed…again.

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Austin Jackson on a Fast Track to Rookie of the Year…or Is He?

By on May 11, 2010 | Comments { 0 }

Let me preface this by saying that I am not Nostradamus. I cannot predict the future and will never claim to be able to.

Now that we have that out of the way I can tell you that Austin Jackson will not win Rookie of the Year.

So far in 2010, Jackson has put together a very impressive resume. In 30 games, he has scored 26 runs and stolen six bases while sporting a fancy triple-slash line of .371/.420/.508. Not too bad considering he is currently head and shoulders above any rookie in the American League right now.

So why am I so against Jackson for the rest of 2010?

Well, his .511 BABIP is 103 points higher than the second place hitter. Historically, there have been 17 players that have recorded a BABIP of .400 or better since 1913 and a vast majority of them are either in the Hall of Fame or very close to it.

The reason for Jackson’s high BABIP is of course his ridiculously high line-drive percentage (39.1), which is seven points higher than the second place Joe Mauer’s (32.1).

FanGraphs.com only has data for LD% as far back as 2002, so I took a look at the league leaders in every season and here is what I came up with:

Jason Bartlett 26% (2009), Andre Ethier 26.6% (2008), Michael Young 27.2% (2007), Freddy Sanchez 27.5% (2006), Placido Polanco 28.2% (2005), Michael Young 25.2% (2004), Mark Loretta 30.7% (2003) and Todd Helton 29% (2002).

You will notice that the highest number recorded since 2002 was 30.7, which is significantly lower than Jackson’s mark this season. You can imagine that once he starts hitting fewer line drives his batting average will fall back down to earth. He currently is hitting .778 on line drives (not too abnormal) and a very high .429 on grounders.

All of these numbers point to a second-half slump because once the numbers start regressing towards the mean (and they always do) he will struggle mightily to get on base. He currently sports a 7.7 percent BB% and 28.0 percent K% and I would not be shocked if he ended up hitting under .300 for the season when it is all said and done.

Other rookies that will challenge Jackson for 2010 Rookie of the Year are Justin Smoak, Carlos Santana, Brett Wallace, Brian Matusz and Wade Davis.

Who do you think will win the award?

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On Deck Circle – Top 75 Batters, Week 6

By on May 11, 2010 | Comments { 0 }

“Say whaaaaaat?!”

It’s a common phrase we use when something is said that really surprises us. It’s something so surprising you do not believe it at first and as the messenger to repeat the message so you can make sure you heard correctly.

Like most things in life, this saying can be applied to fantasy baseball.

April is especially a “say what?!” month because with just one month’s worth of data, numbers tend to be very skewed so here are my “say what?!” player of the 2010 season so far:

My 2010 “Say Whaaaaat?!” Team

C –  Jason Varitek – 39 PA/5 HR/.800 SLG
1B – Paul Konerko – Leads MLB with 13 home runs
2B – Kelly Johnson/Ty Wigginton – Lead all second basemen with 10 home runs
3B – Casey McGehee – Second among 3B in RBI (28)
SS – Alex Gonzalez – Leads all shortstops in HR (10), RBI (27) and SLG (.594)
OF – Andruw Jones – Nine home runs and six steals in 107 plate appearances
OF – Juan Pierre – Leads MLB with 15 steals…and has a .292 OBP
OF – Austin Jackson – Has a .371 BA and…and a .511 BABIP…Just sayin’

Surging

Juan Pierre, OF, Chicago White Sox

I mentioned Juan Pierre in my “say what?!” team above, but it was more because I could not believe that he led the league in steals despite posting an on-base percentage that is 50 points lower than his career average. Over the last week, Pierre has batted .313 and has a .353 OBP that has led to five steals. If he can continue to get on base at a decent rate, it is not crazy to think he can approach 60-70 steals this year.

Vladimir Guerrero, DH, Texas Rangers

It will be interesting to see how Vladimir Guerrero will respond to the hot summer days in Texas, but for now he seems like he’s back to his old self. He has batted .360 over his last seven games and hit four home runs and led the league with 13 RBI. The Rangers’ lineup is no joke and he should continue to get plenty of RBI opportunities batting in the cleanup spot.

Victor Martinez, C/1B, Boston Red Sox

Victor Martinez had a horrendous April, in which he batted .238 with one home run and five RBI. However, so far in May he has two home runs and nine RBI in just nine games. The entire Red Sox offense is starting to come around and Martinez will love to have the speedy Jacoby Ellsbury back in the leadoff role in the next week or two.

Falling

Carlos Pena, 1B, Tampa Bay Rays

Yikes! May has not been kind to Carlos Pena as he has come to the plate 34 times and walked back to the dugout empty handed 31 times. Out of those 31 failed at-bats, 13 were of the strikeout variety, which is downright embarrassing. By this time, you should know what Pena is and what he isn’t so a slump like this is not out of the norm. He will kill your batting average, but should provide you with 35-40 home runs so there is some value in that.

Chone Figgins, 2B/3B, Seattle Mariners

What has happened to Chone Figgins? I’ve been holding on to hope that he will turn around his season, but he is currently sitting on a .185 batting average and while he is walking more this year (17.5 BB%), his strikeouts are much higher as well (27.8 K%). He is affected by a very low .247 BABIP, especially for a speedster and his .194 BABIP on grounders is 70 points lower than his career average. All is not lost for Figgins, but he needs to get it going fast.

Hunter Pence, OF, Houston Astros

Through my traveling as a freelance writer, I actually had the opportunity to talk to Hunter Pence at a Reebok event in January and I asked him if he had big things in store for us fantasy owners in 2010. Naturally, as a Pence owner myself in 2009, I was left both excited and disappointed at the end of the season, but it has become clear to me that when Pence told me he wouldn’t disappoint this season he was lying right to my face. Well, Mr. Pence, not only have you discouraged me from asking other baseball players fantasy-related questions in the future, but you are hereby shunned from my fantasy teams FO-RE-VER. Yes, I displayed absolutely no stats in this paragraph so here is a link to his Yahoo! player page.

Pickup of the Week

Mike Aviles, SS, Kansas City Royals

Mike Aviles was everyone’s favorite sleeper middle infielder for the 2009 season. Thirty-six games and a .183 batting average later, Aviles was a huge bust. He was recently called up from Triple-A when Alex Gordon was demoted and in eight games Aviles has batted .417 with two home runs and five runs. He is definitely worth a look because he plays a very shallow position that is full of underachieving players such as Alexei Ramirez, Yunel Escobar and Asdrubal Cabrera.

On the Mend

Nelson Cruz, OF, Texas Rangers

Cruz was placed on the DL on April 27 with a hamstring cramp and the rest has appeared to work wonders. He is scheduled to start a rehab assignment today and if all goes well he should be back in the major leagues by Thursday or Friday. Hamstring injuries are always unpredictable but it seems like Cruz owners should prepare to activate the slugger very soon.

Down on the Farm

Brett Wallace, 1B, Toronto Blue Jays

How does Brett Wallace sleep at night? He has nine home runs in 31 games down at Triple-A to go along with a triple slash line of .294/.361/.597. Then he looks up at the current Blue Jays lineup and sees Lyle Overbay starting at first base and he is slugging .301 in 32 games. Yes, you read that right. Overbay’s slugging percentage is almost the same as Wallace’s batting average. It is only a matter of time before Wallace gets the call to the big leagues and once he is up he will show that he has the ability to get on base and hit for decent power.

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2010′s “Why Didn’t I Add Him When I Could Have Had Him for Free” Player of the Year

By on May 11, 2010 | Comments { 0 }

There are plenty of players you’ll wish you had by the end of the season. Right about now I’m wishing I got Andre Ethier in a preseason trade instead of Curtis Granderson, but acquiring a player like that cost me a good deal in return – namely Derek Jeter.

I’m also ready to add Starlin Castro in my keeper league, but he’s going to cost me my high waiver priority. The same goes for studs like Stephen Strasburg and Jason Heyward who you probably had to burn a pretty high draft pick on to get.

Derek Holland is free.

After a terrible 2009 season and an injury during Spring Training this year, Holland is easily acquirable and available in 97 percent of leagues. In fact, listen to some of the other guys who he’s buried in free agency with: Reid Brignac, Francisco Cervelli, Vicente Padilla, Jim Edmonds, Matt LaPorta, Nate Robertson, Ronny Cedeno, Jeremy Hermida, Tim Wakefield, Ken Griffey Jr, Ryan Hanigan, Dontrelle Willis, Elijah Dukes, and Aaron Cook.

Those players, all three percent owned, are useless drains on your fantasy team, temporary adds on a Monday day game after a Sunday night game at best. But Holland is still mixed in with them. Best of all, he’ll only cost you your worst player…someone like David DeJesus.

Why do I love Holland so much? Let me count thy ways.

  • He was rated the 31st best prospect in the minors pre-2009 by Baseball America.
  • He has walked just 2.5 batters per nine innings in his minor league career.
  • He has 138.1 innings of Major League experience.
  • He rebounded from those disastrous 138.1 innings and a pre-season demotion to the tune of a 0.93 ERA and 1.01 WHIP in 38.2 innings in Triple-A this season, walking just seven batters while striking out 37.
  • His terrible 2009, while bad, wasn’t as bad as you might think. He was the victim of a .321 BABIP with a FIP of 5.10 (compared to his 6.12 ERA).
  • According to Fangraphs.com, his HR/FB rate (15.2%) was the third worst out of 123 starters with at least 100 innings pitched.

Like I say repeatedly, you can have pitchers like Cook and Padilla who will give you a solid start here and there before you drop them for the next “hot” arm, but I’ll take the risk on the high-ceiling prospect who could end up producing like a top-30 starter.

With last season’s experience, this season’s success and a little more luck, Holland could turn out to be your best add of 2010.

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May 10: Kerry Wood to Close Again, Jason Heyward Hopes for Tuesday Return, and Ross Ohlendorf Back with Bucs

By on May 10, 2010 | Comments { 0 }

Anyone see Dallas Braden‘s perfect game coming? Probably not. How about today’s Fantasy Headlines? I hope so! Here they are for Monday, May 10:

  • Chipper Jones hopes to return to the lineup today after missing yesterday’s game with a sore groin.
  • Another injured Brave – Jason Heyward – thinks he’ll be ready to go full-time again on Tuesday.
  • Kerry Wood will b Cleveland’s closer again starting on Tuesday.
  • Rockies’ outfielder Carlos Gonzalez will miss Monday’s game and return Tuesday as he returns to Venezuela to attend a funeral.
  • Torii Hunter is expected to go today after struggling to run yesterday with a bruise above his knee.
  • Minnesota second baseman Orlando Hudson missed Sunday’s game with a sore shoulder but shouldn’t miss another game.
  • New York’s Wild Thing Oliver Perez is soon to be in jeopardy of losing his rotation spot if his command doesn’t improve.
  • Ross Ohlendorf returns for the Bucs today after missing a month due to back spasms.
  • Matt Holliday has missed the last two games with a sore groin, but manager Tony LaRussa said it was precautionary as weather conditions made the outfield slick and more conducive to re-injury.
  • The Rangers Nelson Cruz is set to start rehab and be back when he’s first eligible on Thursday.
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Bullpen Coach – RP Top 50, Week 5

By on May 7, 2010 | Comments { 1 }

Fantasy owners got some good news on Friday. Cleveland Indians closer Kerry Wood has been activated from the 15-day disabled list.

Prior to the activation Wood made two polar opposite appearances for Double-A Akron. In the first game, Wood let up six runs in two-thirds of an inning. However, in his second and final appearance he pitched a scoreless inning.

More importantly, Wood said he feels fine.  Look for him to regain the closers job almost immediately from Chris Perez who did not impress as Wood’s replacement.

In other injury related news, Brad Lidge appears poised to regain the closers role. After a poor first appearance after being activated from the DL, Lidge has thrown two consecutive scoreless innings. Lidge also claims that he is fully healthy and that he feels his slider is better this year. Look for him to get the next save opportunity with Jose Contreras sliding over to the set-up role.

Surging

Matt Capps, Washington Nationals

We’re more than a month into the season and Capps is still leading the league with 11 saves. He has yet to blow a save and his ERA of 1.10 is less that half of his weight. Capps is also sporting the highest K rate of his career. However, he is also posting the highest walk rate of his career. If you could sell Capps as a top 10 closer I would certainly pull the trigger. Yes Washington is winning games but Tyler Clippard is pitching even better behind Capps. Also the Nationals second first round pick from last year, closer Drew Storen, looms in the minors and should be up not too long after Stephen Strasburg.

Kevin Gregg, Toronto Blue Jays

Like Capps, Gregg has yet to blow a save. He has eight on the season and his ERA and WHIP are both under one. He’s also enjoying a K/9 of 11.57, easily the highest of his career. But much like Capps, Gregg is an obvious sell high candidate. He always does well in the closer role initially, i.e. in Florida and in Chicago, but ends up losing the job. Not surprisingly, Gregg has a lower career ERA in April and May than in any other months. Add in the fact that Toronto has two other relief pitchers with closing experience (Jason Frasor and Scott Downs) and I don’t expect Gregg to continue surging.

Alfredo Simon, Baltimore Orioles

What to make of Alfredo Simon. Baltimore’s current closer is three for three in save opportunities and has yet to allow a run on the season. However, he’s only pitched five innings and has already walked four batters. I have Simon in this space because he is currently saving games but I don’t expect him to hang onto this role for long. He once saved 19 games in the minors, but his ERA that year was 5.03. Having been in the minors for parts of nine seasons, Simon’s career minor league ERA is 4.44. With Michael Gonzalez roughly three to four weeks away from returning and Koji Uehara back from injury and a threat to close, Simon has a very short leash.

Falling

Trevor Hoffman, Milwaukee Brewers

Hoffman has as many blown saves, four, as he has saves. His ERA of 11.70 is even higher than his age. If not for being one of the best closers of all-time, Hoffman probably would have lost his job already. But luckily for him, manager Ken Macha appreciates the veterans on his team, i.e. playing Craig Counsell over Alcides Escobar. Milwaukee does have other closing options in Carlos Villanueva and Todd Coffey but Hoffman is more likely to go on DL than be supplanted as closer. Hoffman is still going to accumulate saves for your team, but at what cost?

Octavio Dotel, Pittsburgh Pirates

Dotel’s ERA and WHIP stand at 8.74 and 1.85 and opposing batters are hitting .313 against him. If you somehow felt comfortable with Dotel as your closer at the beginning of the season, there is no way you can have that same feeling now. With another rough outing, Dotel could be in danger of losing his job. The guy I would grab now is Evan Meek. Meek recorded a save on April 29th and his ERA now sits at 0.53 with 17 strikeouts in 17 innings.

Franklin Morales, Colorado Rockies

After losing the temporary closing job, Morales falls out of my top 50 rankings. Manager Jim Tracy recently confirmed that Morales will be replaced by Manuel Corpas as the Rockies’ fill-in closer until Huston Street returns. Morales did more harm than good so now you don’t have to feel bad about cutting him. Keep an eye on him in the future however, as his value will likely reside as a starting pitcher. Remember, he was once a top prospect of the Rockies.

On the Mend

Huston Street, Colorado Rockies

Street is expected to pitch in an extending spring camp game on May 7th. According to Jim Tracy, Street would then be sent on a Minor League assignment if he does not have a setback. Expect him to be activated in mid to late-May.

Michael Gonzalez, Baltimore Orioles

Gonzalez is steadily rehabbing and just recently began throwing from 60 feet on flat ground. As of right now, surgery is not needed for Gonzalez and he aims to be back by early June.

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May 7: Rafael Furcal Could Be Back by Late Next Week, Brandon Wood Makes Subtle Change, and Someone in AAA Throws a No-No…But Not Who You’d Expect

By on May 7, 2010 | Comments { 0 }

Red Sox-Yankees resume their rivalry tonight fresh off a Boston sweep of the Angels. Before we get to the games, let’s see the Fantasy Headlines for Friday, May 7:

  • Braves phenom Jason Heyward didn’t get the start last night after leaving Wednesday’s game early, but he had a pinch-hit single in the eighth to tie the game.
  • Paul Konerko missed Thursday’s game with a sore neck, but manager Ozzie Guillen expects him to start tonight’s game.
  • According to Mark Sheldon of MLB.com, “there is no telling yet if [Aroldis] Chapman will be with [the Reds]” during a June 4-6 series with the Nationals and, likely, Stephen Strasburg.
  • Remember Andrew Miller? The Marlins’ former prospect threw a no-hitter at Triple-A.
  • For those of you in keeper leagues, Carlos Lee is considering retirement after 2012.
  • Continuous failure Brandon Wood made a subtle change to his stance before Thursday’s game against John Lackey and the Boston Red Sox. Wood widened his stance about four or five inches to improve his balance and promptly homered. Stay tuned.
  • Rafael Furcal could return by late next week.
  • Carlos Gomez remains out of the Brewers lineup and is set to get an MRI in Phoenix on his sore shoulder today.
  • Andy Pettitte is day-to-day with elbow inflammation.
  • Pittsburgh’s Ross Ohlendorf might get the start against Cincinnati on Monday, but no official word if he’s feeling ready yet.
  • Giants shortstop Edgar Renteria returned Thursday after missing four games with a strained groin and promptly strained it again. A DL trip seems likely.
  • Milton Bradley is a troubled man. The Mariners have placed the outfielder on the restricted list as he seeks counseling. In his place, the club called up Michael Saunders.
  • Matt Chico is garnering a lot of consideration to make the start against Florida on Saturday in place of John Lannan. Chico missed nearly two years recovering from Tommy John surgery.
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