In 2008, Grady Sizemore broke out to the tune of 33 home runs and 38 steals and had fantasy owners dreaming of a 40/40 season. One injury riddled 2009 season later, every girl’s favorite coffee mug model is on the decline at the age of 27. So what the heck happened?
(Warning: If bad peripheral stats make you vomit you may want to skip the next two paragraphs or cover up your computer.)
It has only been two weeks, but so far Sizemore is batting .231 with a .333 BABIP. But it’s not his batting average that I am worried about; it’s his approach at the plate. His approach is getting worse as he is striking out more and walking fewer times. In his monster 2007 season Sizemore had a strikeout percentage of 20.5 and a walk percentage of 13.2, but this year he has a 6.8 BB% and 30.8 K%.
Another alarming trend is Sizemore’s tendency to swing at pitches outside the strike zone. So far this season he has swung at 33.7 percent of pitches outside of the strike zone and has swung and missed 12.4 percent of the time (MLB average is 8%). Even when he’s swinging at pitches inside the strike zone, he’s only making contact 78.7 percent of the time. It’s clear that Sizemore is in a funk.
I have not had the privilege to watch any Cleveland Indians games (that was sarcasm), but it seems that opposing pitchers are throwing Sizemore a lot of junk because he has very little protection in that lineup. With Sizemore seeing fewer good pitches to hit, it only makes sense for his batting average to suffer as well as his home run totals. He could be getting frustrated and chasing pitches that he normally would leave alone.
It has only been 10 games, but Sizemore does not look like a former top-10 pick who is just entering his prime. His batting average has dropped in three consecutive years from .290 to .248 and if he doesn’t figure out his problems at the plate we could see Sizemore hit around 25 home runs and steal around 25 bases while hitting .250. In other words, he would be a rich man’s Nate McLouth.
You’ve been warned.
Has it occurred to you that his drop off went right in hand with steroid testing and enforcement in MLB? Hmmmmm…..
Yeah we discussed that prior to this being published. I think that realization and the statistical argument that George puts forth here go hand in hand. One doesn’t exclude the other.