Last week I cautioned owners on making assumptions based on just one week of play.
With two weeks now in the books, it’s time to shuffle up the rankings.
Our week three starting pitching rankings received a major overhaul after several brilliant and just as many not-so-memorable performances highlighted early season trends.
Many of this week’s movers involved the 4-9 Red Sox who just can’t do anything right. Tampa Bay’s Matt Garza shut down Boston and continues to climb up the rankings while Minnesota lefty Francisco Liriano also held the Red Sox in check. And it’s not just the Boston offense that’s sputtering right now. John Lackey was roughed up in his last start, and Jon Lester is still looking for last year’s magic.
Speaking of struggling lefties, remember last week when I said, “[Johan] Santana is on the verge of falling outside the top 20, and unless the velocity increases over the next week or he has a Cy Young-caliber start, Brett Anderson or Tommy Hanson might just overtake him”? Well, Santana staved off the youngsters’ advances with seven shutout innings of nine-strikeout ball in a game that was scoreless until the 19th!
Finally, we see our first newcomers as Roy Oswalt and Ricky Romero crack the top 50. It wasn’t easy dropping Brandon Webb from the rankings – wait, I had no trouble with it at all – and Rick Porcello didn’t deserve to be ranked either. Oswalt’s potentially top-10 WHIP and Romero’s potential in general allowed them to fill the first two vacancies.
Surging
Adam Wainwright, St. Louis Cardinals
Usually the “Surging” section is reserved for guys who made large leaps in the past week, not people who jumped just two spots. In a perfect world I would have made Wainwright, Dan Haren, and C.C. Sabathia three A, B and C, but only one person could occupy the third slot. Haren got the nudge because of his historically dominant first halves and Wainwright landed at five because his WHIP will still most likely be in the 1.15 to 1.20 range. These three will probably flip-flop all year, though, and I’ve decided I like them all more than AL-studs Felix Hernandez and Zack Greinke.
Ubaldo Jimenez, Colorado Rockies
Jimenez didn’t receive a coveted green arrow because I just don’t see anybody really knocking on the door of the top 10 right now. That first tier of starters is too good and has too much potential for anyone else to infiltrate their elite brotherhood – yes, not even one of the most hyped starters of 2010 who also just threw a no-hitter. Sometimes life isn’t fair.
Roy Oswalt, Houston Astros
Injury concerns kept Oswalt out of the pre-season top 50, but three quality starts, a 2.37 ERA, a 1.11 WHIP and 17 Ks later, he convinced me to give him a chance. Too bad Houston’s offense is utterly pathetic because Oswalt will be lucky to win more than 10 games. Like last year, expect a lot of no decisions.
Falling
Yovani Gallardo, Milwaukee Brewers
Gallardo blew it. I don’t care if it’s only been three starts because that was his last chance with me. Until Gallardo shows he can consistently get the walks under control and maintain an ERA in the mid-to-low-3.00s, I’m not buying on him. There is no reason he should be ranked ahead of Garza, Josh Johnson, Josh Beckett, and Ricky Nolasco considering how little he has shown us, and he’s lucky to be ranked ahead of Hanson, Anderson, and Cole Hamels. In fact, right now I wish I ranked Gallardo 20th! Take a second and collect yourself, Bryan. Remember to breathe… phew. Ok, I’ll settle at 17 but no higher!
John Lackey, Boston Red Sox
Lackey is a perfect example of one of those guys who’s more valuable to a real baseball team than he is to a fantasy team. He doesn’t throw a ton of innings and his ERA and WHIP are solid but not elite, but he keeps his team in the game – minus last week, but everything is going wrong in Boston so it makes sense Lackey would falter – and he’s a fierce competitor that inspires everyone around him. Great for the Red Sox, but nothing special for your team. I’d rather go with David Price.
James Shields, Tampa Bay Rays
“Not So Big Game” James has seen his ERA and WHIP rise each season since 2007 and I no longer feel confident that I’m going to at least get a quality start each time he takes the mound. Sure, it’s impossible for someone to throw six innings with three or fewer runs in each of their 30-plus starts, but it’s gotten to the point where I consider it a luxury when it does happen for Shields. That right there is enough to land him in the “Falling” portion of this column.
On the mend
Edinson Volquez, Cincinnati Reds
Volquez has been recovering from reconstructive elbow surgery, and today he was slapped with a 50-game suspension for violating the league’s substance abuse policy. In one of baseball’s most insane rules, Volquez will be allowed to serve his suspension while rehabbing so his timetable isn’t affected at all. The Reds’ righty is still on target for late July and could be a nice bargain late in the season, but Cincinnati will probably go easy on him.
Down on the farm
Carlos Carrasco, Triple-A, Cleveland Indians
Carrasco doesn’t have the most impressive minor league resume – 51-46, 4.06 ERA, 1.30 WHIP, 8.3 K/9, 3.5 BB/9 in 756 IP – but he’s been good this year and Cleveland is desperate for starters. Carrasco is still struggling with walks, allowing 4.7 free passes per nine innings so far this season, but he’s 23 years old, has been pitching in the minors for parts of seven seasons (yeah, since he was 17), and actually got a chance with the Indians last year. He was absolutely atrocious, allowing 22 ER in 22 innings with a WHIP that more resembled an ERA (2.23), but at least he got some experience. I wouldn’t gamble on Carrasco, but he’s a name to know.
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