Unlike David Ortiz-haters, I refuse to draw conclusions from the first week play.
Carl Pavano went 2-0 with a 1.38 ERA, 0.85 WHIP, and 10 K in 13 IP – He didn’t crack the top 50.
Javier Vazquez was rocked to the tune of 8 ER in 5.2 IP against Tampa Bay – He only fell one spot.
If these trends continue for another week, then we’ll start to see people moving around. Despite some stellar performances from players knocking on the door of the top 50, there were no major injuries to any of the guys ranked last week. For now, we see the same 50 names, but I anticipate some newcomers next week. Until then, here are the starting pitcher rankings for week two.
Surging
Matt Garza, Tampa Bay Rays
Of all the starters ranked in the 20s, Garza was just about the only one who didn’t implode in week one. I know I just said I don’t react too much to such a small sample size, but I love Garza’s potential and his two dominant starts were all I needed to see. Yes, they were both against a struggling and unproven Baltimore club, but he went eight innings in both outings and just looked great.
David Price, Tampa Bay Rays
Yeah, the Rays rotation could be really good this season. I mentioned Price a week or two ago in an article about 10 Guys You’ll Wish You Drafted, and after allowing just three runs in 7.2 IP against the Bronx Bombers, I’m willing to push him up the list. Don’t forget how much buzz surrounded his big league promotion a few years back.
Jorge de la Rosa, Colorado Rockies
De la Rosa made the biggest move of the week, jumping 12 spots to 35. Concerns over a high WHIP were the only thing preventing his ascent, and he was able to follow up last year’s All-Star caliber second half with a great first start. How great? Try one hit and one walk over seven innings. Sure, it was against San Diego, but did anyone see the Padres put up 17 runs last night? Plus, de la Rosa gets the pleasure of facing them several times throughout the season.
Falling
Johan Santana, New York Mets
Perhaps I’m overreacting to two lackluster starts, but Santana’s velocity is noticeably lower. Through the first week, his average fastball is just 89.7 mph and his strikeout numbers are down as a result. This marks the fourth straight season his velocity has dropped and his xFIP has risen in each of those seasons. Translation: decrease in velocity equals decrease in effectiveness. Santana is on the verge of falling outside the top 20, and unless the velocity increases over the next week or he has a Cy Young-caliber start, Brett Anderson or Tommy Hanson might just overtake him.
Jair Jurrjens, Atlanta Braves
I’m not Jurrjens’ biggest supporter, and allowing eight runs in 3.2 innings to the Padres doesn’t help his case. Jurrjens had a good first start against the Cubs, but he only fell two spots so there’s no need to call the demotion unfair. Had Tim Lincecum allowed eight runs to the Padres, I guarantee he wouldn’t be sitting at the top of these rankings.
Jake Peavy, Chicago White Sox
Peavy doesn’t have an arrow next to his name, but in two starts he still hasn’t flashed the potential he has. He’s allowed five walks and struck out just seven batters with an ERA of 8.44. Like with Jurrjens, his drop was just two spots, but I wasn’t too high on him anyway. That’s enough to land him in the “Falling” portion of the rankings.
On the mend
Brandon Webb, Arizona Diamondbacks
Remember when Webb said he hoped to be ready for Opening Day? Try June 1. Webb resumed his throwing program this past Monday (4/12) and is expected to continue it today. He only fell five spots, down to 41, but I’m anticipating he lands at number 50 next week.
Down on the farm
Stephen Strasburg, Washington Nationals
Uber-phenom Stephen Strasburg made his first professional start for Double-A Harrisburg and I’d call it a success – 5 IP, 1 ER, 4 H, 2 BB, 8 K, and 1 RBI double (his first hit since high school). There’s still no absolute timetable for Strasburg’s Nationals’ debut, but you’d have to think it would be pretty soon. My guess? Some disagree with me, but I say June 1 at the latest.
I’m pretty sure I heard somewhere that the Nationals have a tentative plan to give Strasburg four starts in AA and for in AAA then bring him up to the majors and cap his innings at around 100-110 major league innings.
Yeah I did some reading on it today and that seems like the plan. That estimate seems to put him on track with my timeline.