Before Saturday, Barry Zito was enjoying a fantastic start to the 2010 season. Then he took the mound against the Cardinals and stuck out 10 batters in eight shutout innings, while walking three. A one time ace, Zito looks to have regained that form, but I am here to set the record straight and why you should not buy into his dominance over four starts .
For one, Zito has yet to allow a home run depsite giving up more fly balls than previous years. Also, his 13.7 LD% is a lot lower than his three year average of 21.8 percent. All of this has contributed to an unsustainable .205 BABIP. Add in his higher-than-average 82.6 LOB% and you have the perfect storm for a regression.
Zito has been showing better control (2.63 BB/9), but he hasn’t made any changes to his delivery or added a pitch to make me believe he is a different pitcher. As a matter of fact, Zito is throwing fewer first strikes and batters are making more contact on his pitches.
Unlike starter Mike Pelfrey, who has added a very effective split-fingered fastball pitch to his repetoire, Zito’s success is based solely on luck being on his side. If you take a look at Zito’s 4.06 xFIP you can see that once his numbers regress towards the mean his performance will drop.
Zito showed flashes of brilliance in 2009 as he posted a post All-Star break ERA of 2.83 with 74 strikeouts and 37 walks in 86 innings. But there are a couple of red flags in his peripheral stats that should tell you to sell, sell, sell.
Don’t see the difference between Pelfrey and Zito… both have significant concerns.
Pelfrey’s strand rate is ridiculously higher than normal so far this year. Not to mention is BABIP is far lower than career norms and K/BB rate has been the worst since his rookie season. The LD% is also as high as his rookie year, indicating opponents are making solid contact – which brings the sustainability of his BABIP even more into question.
Zito’s BABIP is ridiculously low and as you point out, probably unsustainable. But his LD% can actually be used as an indicator that he won’t see a tremendous crash to earth, b/c he is inducing less solid contact. He also sports a career low walk percentage which can only help WHIP, ERA, pitch counts (QS).
While Pelfrey’s return has come out of nowhere, Zito has actually pitched at a higher level over the second half of last year with a 2.83 ERA, 1.29 WHIP, .239 Opp BA, and .358 Opp SLG. While he had a rough September his peripherals starting improving last July.
I’d sell both guys b/c their values are over-inflated now, but I definitely believe Zito will be a better SP this season
Valid arguments, but I think you’re completely missing the overall point of the post, “Barry.”
George isn’t at all saying he likes Zito more than Pelfrey or that Pelfrey hasn’t had luck. All he is saying is that “Zito’s success is based solely on luck being on his side.”
Let’s not get riled up about players we own…
Not sure what your joke is about. While I’m a life long Giants fan, I don’t own Zito in any leagues. I may be guilty of reaching for Lincecum or Sandoval early however… Just one more point to make on the topic though and I’m quoting from Matthew Berry’s “Just Saying”:
“… That, since the start of the 2009 baseball season through April 27 of this year, here are some starting pitching totals:
Pitcher A: 16-11, a 3.49 ERA and 175 strikeouts in 229 innings pitched (36 games)
Pitcher B: 13-13, a 3.69 ERA and 173 strikeouts in 219 1/3 innings pitched (37 games)”
Pitcher A is Danks and Pitcher B is Zito… Many people view Danks as a very solid SP… You have him ranked in your top 30. Zito’s numbers are not far off from this production on the mound.
Ha sorry if you’re not the person we think you are… We know someone who typically responds to articles we write about players he has.
And also let me say that I do like Zito as a borderline top-50 starter (he’d actually go 51 in my weekly rankings since he was the next player in for me). I’m curious as to specifically what Zito has changed. I’ll admit I, myself, haven’t looked insanely deeply into Zito’s numbers (but I will now), but I have seen his peripherals. He struggled long enough that I’ll need more than his one season’s worth or success to convince me he’s back.
As for you (and Berry’s) comparison, Danks and Zito have had very similar numbers over that span, but Danks hasn’t had multiple disappointing seasons in between periods of success. You have to at least admit that there is good reason to doubt Zito.
baaahahaha, oh curley… Barry articulated most of the points I would make, but I do think the sustained success in Danks immediate past gives him a leg up (maybe not 30 versus 50, but more likely 30 versus 40). Some things I’ve read is working on fastball command. Also, it’s been said that it may have taken a long time to adjust to a significant decline in velocity after signing with SFG. Now that he’s accepting this, the focus has been more on location in recent years. Some stats Olney provided from his most recent start:
“Why Zito won Friday, from John Parolin of ESPN Stats & Information:
A) Rockies hitters went 0-for-6 with four strikeouts against his curveball. In five starts this season, Zito has not allowed a hit with the curveball. (Batters are 0-for-35 with 11 strikeouts against it.)
B) He threw 38 pitches inside, getting hitters to miss on 41.7 percent of them.
C) He finished off batters when getting two strikes; the Rockies were 1-for-15 in those situations.”
Haha you do know when you write comments I can see your IP address so I can know who it is lol