Have you ever wondered how many games a team full of Albert Pujols’ would win in a season? Thanks to the people over at Baseball Reference you can do just that. Oh, and by the way, it’s 120 games.
I have discovered a new statistic while perusing the baseball reference site (it would take you a whole year to discover every statistic they had on their website) and it’s called offensive winning percentage. What they do is take a player, clone him nine times and assume average pitching and defense. That’s the team and the winning percentage is how a team like that would do winning games. It’s really just a fun and different way to evaluate pure offensive talent. Just two weeks into the season here is the top 10 in OWn%:
1. Manny Ramirez – .896
2. Brad Hawpe – .889
3. Vernon Wells – .886
4. Chase Utley – .880
5. Andre Ethier – .874
6. Nelson Cruz – .859
7. Casey McGehee – .858
8. Josh Willingham – .852
9. Ryan Braun – .852
10. Shin-Soo Choo – .843
Some interesting names are on that list, but remember it’s early on the season so you should not go trading for Brad Hawpe or Casey McGehee at all costs. I am just trying to spread the cheer and joy of the statistical world of baseball. So go on and explore the world of numbers, you will surprise yourself at how many things you might learn. It just goes to show how much fun you can have with numbers!
Surging
Rafael Furcal, SS, Los Angeles Dodgers
Don’t look now, but Rafael Furcal is batting .356 with 15 runs and seven steals. Furcal is a guy who stole 20 bases in his last two seasons and has not topped 30 steals since 2006. Now it looks like he is back to being aggressive on the base paths and he could score a lot of runs with Matt Kemp, Manny Ramirez and Andre Ethier all batting behind him. Furcal can hit .300, top 100 runs and steal 30 bases this season, but he will have to stay healthy.
Andrew McCutchen, OF, Pittsburgh Pirates
You might recall Bryan Curley and I arguing between Andrew McCutchen and B.J. Upton in the preseason and it seems that both players are off to hot starts. McCutchen leads the league in steals (9) and is batting a respectable .273 this season. He only has one RBI so far which just shows you how bad the Pirates’ offense is, but he has scored 12 runs and should be good for 80-90 runs and could steal upwards of 40 bases. If he can show his power was no fluke from last season we could see a 20/40 guy as early as this season.
Colby Rasmus, OF, St. Louis Cardinals
The power is definitely for real as Colby Rasmus hit 29 home runs in 128 Double-A games in 2007. The big question is whether he can maintain a respectable .270 batting average as opposed to one in the .250 area. Currently he is hitting .273 and some encouraging signs are that his 18.2 BB% is easily the highest it’s ever been in his young career and his .280 BABIP is right in line with his career numbers. However, Rasmus is striking out 31.8 percent of the time, which is a number I expect to go down, but he also has hit line drives just 10 percent of the time. Fewer line drives means a tougher time sustaining a good batting average, and it’s possible that Rasmus’ .273 average is a little lucky thanks to his early boost in home runs.
Falling
Ben Zobrist, 2B/OF, Tampa Bay Rays
Ben Zobrist burst onto the scene last year when he hit 27 home runs and stole 17 bases in just 501 at-bats. A lot of fantasy baseball owners (including me) had their doubts that Zobrist could repeat in 2010 and so far he is helping make the argument for the doubters. His approach at the plate has suffered as he has walked just 6.5 percent of the time and struck out 25.8 percent of the time. In 2009, Zobrist posted a .405 OBP, which was 11th in the majors and while the four steals are nice, he will have to improve on his approach to please his owners.
Grady Sizemore, OF, Cleveland Indians
I wrote a blog post about Grady Sizemore earlier this week highlighting why I would be worried to own him in fantasy this year. Given his performance over the past week (.091 BA, 0 HR, 0 RBI) and his struggles against left-handed pitchers (1-for-21) he is just going to keep falling on my board until he turns it around. Chances are he will fix whatever is plaguing him right now, but visions of another 30/30 season are no longer a lock and probably more on the unrealistic side.
Nick Markakis,OF, Baltimore Orioles
It’s nice to see Nick Markakis walking again and his 15.7 BB% is even better than his 14.2 percentage in his breakout 2008 season. However, Markakis is also sporting a very unimpressive triple slash line of .259/.371/.379, which is awful considering he is not a player who will swipe more than 10 bases. Fantasy owners had dreams of Markakis posting 25 home runs and 15 steals, but it seems that 25 home runs might be a little optimistic and that makes Markakis a solid third or fourth outfielder in 10-team mixed leagues.
Player to Watch
Ike Davis, 1B, New York Mets
Ike Davis is getting his shot in the big leagues and if he stays he could provide fantasy teams with some power off the waiver wire. In the minors last year, Davis hit 20 home runs and drove in 71 runs in just 114 games and he posted a .906 OPS. Davis has struggled a little so far in the majors, but he is immediately batting sixth in the Mets lineup, which could give him plenty of RBI opportunities.
On the Mend
Jimmy Rollins, SS, Philadelphia Phillies
It was not good news for Jimmy Rollins and his fantasy owners when he went down with a calf injury. For a player who relies so much on his speed, it wouldn’t surprise me if he takes his time to come back which could mean a four-week absence. It’s too bad because Rollins was putting together a nice bounce-back year with a .391 batting average and two steals in seven games.
Down on the Farm
Justin Smoak, 1B, Texas Rangers
It’s the same old song and dance for Justin Smoak as he continues to rake in the minors, but he is denied the chance to play in the majors because of Chris Davis. Well, this might be Davis’ last chance to impress the Rangers because Smoak seems to be ready to take over and could contribute immediately when he gets the call. He won’t mash the ball, but his batting is nothing short of astonishing (16 BB, 6 K).
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