Archive | April, 2010

Apr. 30: Brad Lidge Back with Phillies Bullpen, Kevin Slowey and Brett Myers Get Pushed Up to Start Tonight, and Ian Kinsler and Cliff Lee Set to Make Their Much-Anticipated Season Debuts

By on April 30, 2010 | Comments { 0 }

If you’ve been checking back with us semi-frequently, we want to say thanks. Last night we completed our fourth site re-design in four months as we respond to reader feedback and gain a better feel of what layout best serves out purposes.

Also if you’ve been checking back, you’ve probably notice it’s been a while since we did posted our last Fantasy Headlines – 20 days ago to be exact – way back when we still thought Grady Sizemore had bounce back potential. Yeesh.

Anyway, here are your Fantasy Headlines for Friday, April 30:

  • Arizona’s frequent 2009 spot starter Kevin Mulvey is back in the bigs as the club placed Kris Benson and Leo Rosales on the 15-day DL. Dan Stange was also called up.
  • And the National League home run leader (9) on the last day of April is… Kelly Johnson?
  • Two key members of the Atlanta Braves left Thursday’s game against the Cardinals with injuries: Jair Jurrjens and Yunel Escobar.
  • Our resident closer expert Chris Campanelli will lend more insight into this situation in his weekly report, but Orioles’ righty Koji Uehara is soon to be activated and could see himself in a few save situations… if Baltimore ever wins a game.
  • It’s not a new trend, but it’s worth noting; David Ortiz will be lucky to face a left-handed pitcher ever again so bench him accordingly.
  • Ted Lilly‘s second start for the Cubbies didn’t go nearly as well as his first.
  • Carlos Quentin will miss at least today’s (Friday’s) series opener against the Yankees.
  • Reds’ center fielder Chris Dickerson sprained his wrist on Thursday and will be flying back to Cincinnati for evaluation. That puts a temporary end to the annoying time share in the Reds’ outfield, and Jonny Gomes and Drew Stubbs should see a few more at-bats.
  • Despite five homers, 19 RBI and an absurb 1.093 OPS in Triple-A, the Indians are in no rush to promote uber-prospect Carlos Santana according to the team’s website.
  • Now this is the kind of toughness I want from guys on my team: “[Miguel] Olivo said Wednesday morning that he had passed a kidney stone during the eighth inning of Monday’s 5-3 loss to the D-backs, yet he finished the game. And he passed another before extending his hit streak to five games Tuesday night.” – Thomas Harding, MLB.com.
  • Marlins outfielder Cody Ross is still under the weather with both a stomach virus and bronchitis, and his status for today’s game remains uncertain.
  • Brett Myers and Wandy Rodriguez will flip-flop in the Houston rotation as Rodriguez battles back spasms. That means Myers is going tonight.
  • Chris Getz will join the Kansas City lineup tonight. Rumor is that Alex Gordon might be optioned to Triple-A Omaha while Alberto Callaspo takes over third base.
  • Keep an eye on the Angels’ Brandon Wood who finds himself in the midst of a mini hot streak.
  • Rafael Furcal is still out of the starting lineup while his hamstring acts up, but he might be available to pinch hit tonight.
  • Kevin Slowey will start in place of Nick Blackburn for Minnesota tonight, keeping Slowey on his regular four days of rest.
  • After being drilled by a Jeremy Guthrie fastball on Wednesday, Jorge Posada sat out Thursday’s game. He says his knee is no cause for concern, though.
  • Oakland recalled Trevor Cahill to make the start tonight against Toronto/Brandon Morrow after Brett Anderson landed on the DL.
  • Brad Lidge is heading back to Philadelphia!
  • Despite some early season struggles, the Pirates will be sticking with Octavio Dotel as their closer.
  • San Diego shortstop Everth Cabrera missed his third straight game on Thursday and could be headed to the DL.
  • John Bowker put up a fight, but Nate Schierholtz is San Francisco’s starting right fielder.
  • Cliff Lee is ready to make his Mariners debut, potentially pushing Ian Snell from the rotation.
  • Tampa Bay reliever and rogue-save collector J.P. Howell is progressing well and hopes to be back by the end of May, but manager Joe Maddon didn’t have any comments about the timetable.
  • Ian Kinsler is set to make his season debut tonight, one day after Justin Smoak tallied his first career home run. We love this kid.
  • Also out of Texas, Neftali Feliz still has the Rangers closer gig.
  • George and I have a little bet on how many saves Drew Storen will accumulate this season. I’m going out on a limb and saying at least 12. The phenom takes his next step to the Majors by joining the Washington Triple-A affiliate today.
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On Deck Circle – Hitter Top 75, Week 4

By on April 30, 2010 | Comments { 0 }

Surging

Kendry Morales, 1B, Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim

It’s nice to see Kendry Morales, who clobbered 34 home runs last year, getting back into the swing of things. Over the last week, Morales has a .379 batting average with three home runs and 10 RBI and it looks like that power we all saw in 2009 is legit. He has a chance at 40 home runs and he has always hovered around a .300 batting average in the major and minor leagues.

Michael Bourn, OF, Houston Astros

Michael Bourn fell in a lot of drafts because of similar, cheaper options (Juan Pierre anyone?) available later in drafts, but Bourn has a .333 batting average and a ridiculous .484 on-base percentage to go along with his six steals in the past week. It’s clear that when Bourne gets on base he will swipe bags and with the entire Astros offense turning it around, we could be seeing the beginning to another nice season for the young speedster.

Prince Fielder, 1B, Milwaukee Brewers

Despite an 0-for-5 performance yesterday, Prince Fielder is starting to get on a roll and that very small window of opportunity you had to get him at a discount is rapidly closing. Fielder usually starts hitting in late April or early May and his .300 batting average and two home runs since April 21 are a nice sign. An even better sign is his cutdown on his strikeouts. In that same timespan, Fielder has struck out once every 4.3 at-bats, which is an improvement over his one strikeout per ever 3.5 at-bat rate. Oh, and I’m not buying into this whole injured wrist thing. Just so you know.

Falling

Curtis Granderson, OF, New York Yankees

It’s safe to say that Curtis Granderson will want to forget this past week as he went 2-for-22 with three runs and seven strikeouts. I loved Granderson this year because of his great home run potential in Yankee Stadium, but he has yet to hit a home run at home and is basically useless against left-handed pitchers (.210 career BA). Until he learns to fix this problem or at the very least starts hitting more home runs, consider me skeptical that Granderson can cash in on his top 40 potential.

Jason Heyward, OF, Atlanta Braves

Ladies and gentlemen, Jason Heyward has come back down to earth. After his torrid start over his first 13 games (.300 BA, 4 HR, 16 RBI), Heyward has just one hit over his last 20 at-bats and just one run. He is still drawing walks (four in his last seven games), which is a nice sign, but this was to be expected from Heyward this year. Remember, he is still just 20 years old and in non-keeper leagues Heyward is no better than a fourth outfielder. However, when he’s on a hot streak he has shown that he is worthy of everyday starting status in any league.

Placido Polanco, 2B, Philadelphia Phillies

Placido Polanco is as streaky as they come and if you rely on him as an everyday starter be prepared to endure long drought much like the one he is currently in (.130 BA, 0 R, 1 RBI). Polanco will bat around .300, but it will be a bumpy ride and his run totals should spike up towards 100 when it is all said and done. However, if you were expecting 15 home runs and double digit steals you might want to look elsewhere. Polanco has reached 15 home runs just once (2004) and double digit steals twice (2001, 2003) in his career.

Pickups of the Week

The Colorado Rockies Duo

If you haven’t been paying attention, the Colorado Rockies made a couple of internal moves that could have major fantasy impact. The Rockies called up Eric Young Jr. over the weekend and he has started in two straight games. Overall, he is 5-for-10 with four runs and two steals and could be in line for a good amount of playing time with Clint Barmes struggling at the plate. Colorado did not call Young up to sit on the bench.

Also, everybody’s favorite catcher sleeper was sent down to Triple-A, which means regular playing time for Miguel Olivo. Right now, Olivo is batting .314 with five home runs and 13 RBI and while his batting average is not legit, his power and RBI’s are. Olivo is more like a .250 hitter, but he could hit 25 home runs if he starts every day.

Jim Thome, DH, Minnesota Twins

Uh oh, Justin Morneau’s back is acting up again, which could mean a potential DL trip for the former MVP. Waiting in the wings for more playing time is Jim Thome, who is batting .282 with four home runs and 10 RBI in 37 at-bats. With Morneau currently sidelined, look for Thome to get regular time at DH and Kubel to be moved into the field. If you’re team needs some power don’t be afraid to pick up Thome even if it’s for a couple of games.

On the Mend

Nelson Cruz, OF, Texas Rangers

It was only a matter of time before Nelson Cruz hit the DL as he was bothered by a hamstring for over a week. He currently has seven home runs and five steals and was well on pace to replicate his 30/20 season from last year. While hamstring issues are a little alarming, Cruz should be back when he is eligible and could be relegated to some more time at DH to take the load off his ailing leg. I still see Cruz as having an outside chance at 40 home runs this year so consider me not worried as of yet.

Down on the Farm

Mike Stanton, OF, Florida Marlins (AA)

Not sure if you’ve noticed, but baseball’s best prospect not named Jason Heyward or Stephen Strasburg is tearing it up in the minors. Over 19 games, Stanton is batting .338 with nine home runs, 22 RBI and a ridiculous .789 slugging percentage. This power surge isn’t out of the blue because Stanton hit 39 home runs as an 18-year old in Single-A ball and while he struck out over 140 times, his approach is improving as he has 20 walks compared to 19 strikeouts this season. The Marlins don’t really have any incentive to call up the 20-year old Stanton anytime soon with Cameron Maybin, Chris Coghlan and Cody Ross in the outfield. But just know that if it wasn’t for Heyward or Strasburg you would be hearing a lot more about Stanton in the minor leagues.

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Sell Barry Zito

By on April 26, 2010 | Comments { 8 }

Before Saturday, Barry Zito was enjoying a fantastic start to the 2010 season. Then he took the mound against the Cardinals and stuck out 10 batters in eight shutout innings, while walking three. A one time ace, Zito looks to have regained that form, but I am here to set the record straight and why you should not buy into his dominance over four starts .

For one, Zito has yet to allow a home run depsite giving up more fly balls than previous years. Also, his 13.7 LD% is a lot lower than his three year average of 21.8 percent. All of this has contributed to an unsustainable .205 BABIP. Add in his higher-than-average 82.6 LOB% and you have the perfect storm for a regression.

Zito has been showing better control (2.63 BB/9), but he hasn’t made any changes to his delivery or added a pitch to make me believe he is a different pitcher. As a matter of fact, Zito is throwing fewer first strikes and batters are making more contact on his pitches.

Unlike starter Mike Pelfrey, who has added a very effective split-fingered fastball pitch to his repetoire, Zito’s success is based solely on luck being on his side. If you take a look at Zito’s 4.06 xFIP you can see that once his numbers regress towards the mean his performance will drop.

Zito showed flashes of brilliance in 2009 as he posted a post All-Star break ERA of 2.83 with 74 strikeouts and 37 walks in 86 innings. But there are a couple of red flags in his peripheral stats that should tell you to sell, sell, sell.

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On Deck Circle – Hitter Top 75, Week 3

By on April 23, 2010 | Comments { 0 }

Have you ever wondered how many games a team full of Albert Pujols’ would win in a season? Thanks to the people over at Baseball Reference you can do just that. Oh, and by the way, it’s 120 games.

I have discovered a new statistic while perusing the baseball reference site (it would take you a whole year to discover every statistic they had on their website) and it’s called offensive winning percentage. What they do is take a player, clone him nine times and assume average pitching and defense. That’s the team and the winning percentage is how a team like that would do winning games. It’s really just a fun and different way to evaluate pure offensive talent. Just two weeks into the season here is the top 10 in OWn%:

1. Manny Ramirez – .896
2. Brad Hawpe – .889
3. Vernon Wells – .886
4. Chase Utley – .880
5. Andre Ethier – .874
6. Nelson Cruz – .859
7. Casey McGehee – .858
8. Josh Willingham – .852
9. Ryan Braun – .852
10. Shin-Soo Choo – .843

Some interesting names are on that list, but remember it’s early on the season so you should not go trading for Brad Hawpe or Casey McGehee at all costs. I am just trying to spread the cheer and joy of the statistical world of baseball. So go on and explore the world of numbers, you will surprise yourself at how many things you might learn. It just goes to show how much fun you can have with numbers!

Surging

Rafael Furcal, SS, Los Angeles Dodgers

Don’t look now, but Rafael Furcal is batting .356 with 15 runs and seven steals. Furcal is a guy who stole 20 bases in his last two seasons and has not topped 30 steals since 2006. Now it looks like he is back to being aggressive on the base paths and he could score a lot of runs with Matt Kemp, Manny Ramirez and Andre Ethier all batting behind him. Furcal can hit .300, top 100 runs and steal 30 bases this season, but he will have to stay healthy.

Andrew McCutchen, OF, Pittsburgh Pirates

You might recall Bryan Curley and I arguing between Andrew McCutchen and B.J. Upton in the preseason and it seems that both players are off to hot starts. McCutchen leads the league in steals (9) and is batting a respectable .273 this season. He only has one RBI so far which just shows you how bad the Pirates’ offense is, but he has scored 12 runs and should be good for 80-90 runs and could steal upwards of 40 bases. If he can show his power was no fluke from last season we could see a 20/40 guy as early as this season.

Colby Rasmus, OF, St. Louis Cardinals

The power is definitely for real as Colby Rasmus hit 29 home runs in 128 Double-A games in 2007. The big question is whether he can maintain a respectable .270 batting average as opposed to one in the .250 area. Currently he is hitting .273 and some encouraging signs are that his 18.2 BB% is easily the highest it’s ever been in his young career and his .280 BABIP is right in line with his career numbers. However, Rasmus is striking out 31.8 percent of the time, which is a number I expect to go down, but he also has hit line drives just 10 percent of the time. Fewer line drives means a tougher time sustaining a good batting average, and it’s possible that Rasmus’ .273 average is a little lucky thanks to his early boost in home runs.

Falling

Ben Zobrist, 2B/OF, Tampa Bay Rays

Ben Zobrist burst onto the scene last year when he hit 27 home runs and stole 17 bases in just 501 at-bats. A lot of fantasy baseball owners (including me) had their doubts that Zobrist could repeat in 2010 and so far he is helping make the argument for the doubters. His approach at the plate has suffered as he has walked just 6.5 percent of the time and struck out 25.8 percent of the time. In 2009, Zobrist posted a .405 OBP, which was 11th in the majors and while the four steals are nice, he will have to improve on his approach to please his owners.

Grady Sizemore, OF, Cleveland Indians

I wrote a blog post about Grady Sizemore earlier this week highlighting why I would be worried to own him in fantasy this year. Given his performance over the past week (.091 BA, 0 HR, 0 RBI) and his struggles against left-handed pitchers (1-for-21) he is just going to keep falling on my board until he turns it around. Chances are he will fix whatever is plaguing him right now, but visions of another 30/30 season are no longer a lock and probably more on the unrealistic side.

Nick Markakis,OF, Baltimore Orioles

It’s nice to see Nick Markakis walking again and his 15.7 BB% is even better than his 14.2 percentage in his breakout 2008 season. However, Markakis is also sporting a very unimpressive triple slash line of .259/.371/.379, which is awful considering he is not a player who will swipe more than 10 bases. Fantasy owners had dreams of Markakis posting 25 home runs and 15 steals, but it seems that 25 home runs might be a little optimistic and that makes Markakis a solid third or fourth outfielder in 10-team mixed leagues.

Player to Watch

Ike Davis, 1B, New York Mets

Ike Davis is getting his shot in the big leagues and if he stays he could provide fantasy teams with some power off the waiver wire. In the minors last year, Davis hit 20 home runs and drove in 71 runs in just 114 games and he posted a .906 OPS. Davis has struggled a little so far in the majors, but he is immediately batting sixth in the Mets lineup, which could give him plenty of RBI opportunities.

On the Mend

Jimmy Rollins, SS, Philadelphia Phillies

It was not good news for Jimmy Rollins and his fantasy owners when he went down with a calf injury. For a player who relies so much on his speed, it wouldn’t surprise me if he takes his time to come back which could mean a four-week absence. It’s too bad because Rollins was putting together a nice bounce-back year with a .391 batting average and two steals in seven games.

Down on the Farm

Justin Smoak, 1B, Texas Rangers

It’s the same old song and dance for Justin Smoak as he continues to rake in the minors, but he is denied the chance to play in the majors because of Chris Davis. Well, this might be Davis’ last chance to impress the Rangers because Smoak seems to be ready to take over and could contribute immediately when he gets the call. He won’t mash the ball, but his batting is nothing short of astonishing (16 BB, 6 K).

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Bullpen Coach – RP Top 50, Week 3

By on April 22, 2010 | Comments { 1 }

Here we are three weeks into the season and the Major League leader in saves is Mariano… I mean Matt Capps.

Wait, what?

That’s right. The closer for the Washington Nationals is leading the league with seven saves right now.

Now that I’ve brought that to your attention, let’s take a look at what has transpired at the closer position over the past week. After some uninspiring performances and less than stellar votes of confidence from their managers, a couple of closers are barely holding onto their jobs. I’m looking at you Chad Qualls and Brian Fuentes.

Week three also brings us closer to the return of some of the big-name closers (Brad Lidge, Huston Street, and Kerry Wood). That means you’re running out of time to squeeze saves out of fill-in closers such as Chris Perez.

Remember, there’s a lot of turnover at the closer position so you need to constantly be monitoring the latest developments. With that in mind, here are my top 50 rankings to help you navigate through the mine field that is the closer position.

Surging

Neftali Feliz, Texas Rangers

It’s going to be awfully tough for Ron Washington to hand back the closers job to Frank Francisco since Feliz has been spectacular since taking over.  He’s two-for-two in save opportunities and pitched two scoreless innings against the Red Sox in a tie game, striking out three batters. Feliz has struck out at least one batter in every appearance this year and is holding opponents to an unbelievably low average of .091. Washington hasn’t said anything about Feliz taking over the closing job permanently but if Francisco continues to struggle, it may be only a matter of time. Stay tuned.

Matt Lindstrom, Houston Astros

Lindstrom is four-for-four in save opportunities and striking out over a batter per inning. What’s really impressed me with him, however, is his control. In previous season, walks were the death of him. But this year Lindstrom has yet to walk a batter which has contributed to a tidy WHIP of  1.14. I am optimistic that this trend will continue because he is gripping the ball tighter, which should help him better locate his fastball and cut down on the walks and blown saves.

Carlos Marmol, Chicago Cubs

Although not necessarily surging in my rankings since I’ve had him rated fairly high all year, Marmol is quickly starting to endear himself to fantasy owners once again. Last year, Marmol and his 1.46 WHIP really turned people off but he’s lowered that WHIP to 0.91 so far this year. And it’s not like this is unheard of either since his WHIP was 0.93 in 2008 and 1.10 in 2007. Marmol has also been a strikeout king, fanning a stupid 14 batters in 7.2 innings. If he can continue to keep the walks in check, Marmol could have a monster fantasy year.

Falling

Chad Qualls, Arizona Diamondbacks

Just when I thought Qualls was settling into the closers role he lets up three runs against St. Louis while taking the loss. To be fair, it was his third game pitching in a row but still not enough to give him a free pass. The loss, combined with two blown saves already, leaves Qualls on shaky ground. Luckily for his owners, Arizona’s next in line, Juan Gutierrez, has been nearly as bad compiling an ERA of 6.43. For now, Qualls is still the closer but he’s treading water at best.

Brian Fuentes, Los Angeles Angels

Fresh off the DL, Fuentes blew his first save opportunity, suffering a loss at the claws of the Tigers. Sure, it’s only his first blown save of the season but the warning signs are there. Fuentes had a 1.40 WHIP last year and is dealing with a bad back this year. Combine this with that fact that the Angels have a capable closer in Fernando Rodney, who converted all five of his save chances with Fuentes on the DL, and you have a closer situation to watch.

Octavio Dotel, Pittsburgh Pirates

Although Dotel has three saves on the season and has let up at least one earned run in each of his last three outings, we’ve been down this road before. Dotel is put in the closers role for his electric stuff but eventually loses the job due to control issues. While his job is safe for now, I don’t have a lot of confidence in him, especially since Evan Meek is pitching so well with a 0.90 ERA.

On The Mend

Brad Lidge, Philadelphia Phillies

Lidge is progressing well, touching between 88 and 92 MPH with his fastball. According to Phillies GM Ruben Amaro, Lidge needs to continue building his velocity and fine tune his slider before returning to the mound. He’s set for another rehab assignment on Thursday and if all goes well, he could return on May 1.

Huston Street, Colorado Rockies

Street should begin pitching from flat ground in the coming days and hopefully from the mound by the end of the weekend. The Rockies have not set a target date for his return but expect him back around mid-May if all goes well.

Kerry Wood, Cleveland Indians

Wood, who is nursing a strained back, is expected to throw a simulated game on Friday.  If Wood does not suffer a setback, he could be back closing for the Indians within the week.

Mike Gonzalez, Baltimore Orioles

Uh oh. Gonzalez is set to visit orthopedic surgeon James Andrews, which usually spells doom for an athlete’s season. Team president Andy MacPhail insists that Gonzalez is just seeking an extra opinion from Dr. Andrews. For now, expect Gonzalez to be out a minimum of three weeks but keep close tabs on the results of that visit.

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Carlos Zambrano to Cubs’ Pen

By on April 22, 2010 | Comments { 0 }

A month ago the Chicago Cubs were trying to decide which of their four marginal rotation candidates would start the season behind Carlos Zambrano, Ryan Dempster, and Randy Wells.

After all of that, it appears Zambrano is the odd-man out.

The Chicago Cubs have elected to send their veteran righty and former staff ace to the bullpen, allowing Carlos Silva and Tom Gorzelanny to continue their early-season success when the perpetually underrated Ted Lilly rejoins the rotation.

Zambrano isn’t happy about the move and if you own him, you shouldn’t be either. Lou Piniella insists it’s a temporary move, but an article on ESPN Chicago thinks it might be a little more permanent than the Cubs’ skipper is letting on.

Either way, do your best to trade Zambrano in the next 24 hours before your trade partner finds out – unless you have a conscience.

If all else fails, dump him and cut your losses.

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Is Chase Headley Worth Starting?

By on April 21, 2010 | Comments { 0 }

Could it be that the San Diego Padres have a hitter worth starting besides Adrian Gonzalez?

I’m here to tell you that they do, and that man’s name is Chase Headley.

Headley was a forgotten man this preseason, buried towards the bottom of most experts’ third base rankings. The Padres former top prospect was a hot name to know 2008, but after two disappointing seasons many people started to write him off.

Now we are two weeks into the 2010 season and Headley has a new status:  post-hype sleeper.

Through 13 games, Headley is batting .353 with 10 runs scored, one home run, seven RBI, and two stolen bases. He’s also sporting a nifty .901 OPS.

One could simply call this a hot start, but I’m more inclined to believed that Headley is starting to reach his potential because of his declining strikeout rate and increased contact percentage. Last year, Headley struck out 24.5 percent of the time, but this year he is striking out a lot less, a mere 11.8 percent of the time. It’s no surprise then that Headley has increased his contact percentage to 81.9 percent, which is better than the league average.

Headley should continue to hit for a high average because he’s finally playing third base, his natural position, instead of splitting time in left field. In 2009, he batted .287 in games started at third base as opposed to only .251 in games started in left field.

Headley also has the pleasure of batting cleanup for the Padres behind Adrian Gonzalez, which should provide plenty of RBI opportunities. In addition to being a good source for RBIs, Headley has 20-home run and double-digit steal potential considering he stole 10 bases last year and hit 20 home runs in the minors in 2007.

If Headley is able to continue his pace and hit for a good average with above average power and double digit steals, he has a chance to finish as a top-12 third baseman ahead of guys like Chipper Jones, Chris Davis and Adrian Beltre.

I don’t know about you, but I would much rather have a 25-year old third baseman entering his prime than a third baseman from yesteryear.

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