It’s the age-old question; how will a new ballpark affect a player’s performance? Does it favor pitchers or hitters? Dome or no dome? Boxers or briefs?
OK, so that last one doesn’t really have any effect on a hitter’s performance (at least it hasn’t been proven yet), but what if there was a more literal way to see the direct effect a new stadium will have on a hitter’s offense? Well thanks to katron.org, there is.
Using their BIP Location tool, you can take someone like Jason Bay’s hits at Fenway Park and see where they would have landed in Citi Field. I played around with this tool and thought I would share with you some interesting facts I found out in the process.
(Note: Dark Blue = Home run, Light blue = Double, and any type of yellow is a fly out.)
Jason Bay (click picture for larger image)
Note that Jason Bay hit 15 home runs at Fenway Park last year, but only two of them landed outside the parameters of Citi Field. It's safe to downgrade expectations when it comes to Bay's power this year.
Adrian Beltre (click picture for larger image)
Safeco Field is notorious for sapping the power out of right-handed hitters, so Fenway Park will be a pleasant site for both Beltre and his owners. As you can see here, Beltre would have hit five more home runs in 2009 if he played in Boston.
Curtis Granderson (click picture for larger image)
There is no question that the new Yankee stadium is a home run hitters' paradise, and this graphic further proves it. Granderson had seven hits that failed to leave the yard in Comerica Park, but they would have been home runs in his new home stadium, which is scary since he hit 30 homers last year. Granderson should be a legit 35-homer threat in 2010.
Joel Piniero (click picture for larger image)
Joel Piniero is an extreme ground ball pitcher who let up just 11 home runs in 2009, but according to this graphic he would have let up eight more if he played in Anaheim. For a guy who doesn't strike out many batters, an increase in home runs allowed would be devastating to his value.
Edwin Jackson (Click picture for larger image)
While you may think that a transition to the National League is a great career move for a starting pitcher, Edwin Jackson may be the exception. Jackson moves from a fairly neutral ballpark to an extreme hitters' park in Chase Field, and it is evident by the seven more home runs he would have let up. He is a promising young pitcher, but make sure you don't overrate him on draft day.
Max Scherzer (click picture for larger image)
If Max Scherzer was a more efficient pitcher I would love his move to Comerica Park, and it all starts with that spacious left field. In 2009, Scherzer allowed 12 home runs to left field in Arizona, but Comerica would have held in half of those for either fly outs or doubles. Overall, Scherzer would have let up eight fewer home runs. Now, if only he could fix those control issues.
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