We go back to the Mailbag today, answering a question we received from Joe. It was actually five questions nicely rolled into one email, so let’s see what we’ve got:
“I’d like to ask you some questions below. I’m preparing for my 10-team Keeper Draft. Please have the “keeper” aspect in mind.
- Billy Butler or Jay Bruce? (for utility position, choose 1)
- Josh Johnson in Rd. 7, or Ricky Nolasco in Rd. 8?
- What is your belief in Francisco Liriano ever becoming a dynasty/keeper force?
- Do you believe in “contract years?” Is Carl Crawford going to go nuts for a payday?
- Jered Weaver, Edwin Jackson, or Matt Garza?
-Joe”
Those are some tough questions, Joe, particularly the three player comparisons.
1. Tough call between Butler and Bruce, but I give the edge to Bruce for two reasons. First, Butler’s value falls victim to the position he plays at. He has what it takes to be a perennial .300 hitter with 30 HR potential and maybe 100 RBI when the Royals lineup improves, but that still makes him middle-of-the-pack at that position. Even if he’s primarily going to be a utility guy, position is still a major factor. Second, Bruce is going about 20 picks later on average.
2. I’m all over Nolasco this year. His second half was fantastic (once again), he’s an elite K pitcher, and as much as I like Nolasco, I don’t like Josh Johnson. I’ve said it before, but do you really want a pitcher who recently underwent major surgery, threw the most innings of his career by far and just signed a big, long-term deal? I don’t.
3. Francisco Liriano could become a great pitcher once again, but at this point it would just be a nice surprise. There’s no way I’m investing anything other than a late-round pick in him, and I’d rather have guys like Derek Holland, Mark Rzcepczynski or Brian Matusz.
4. Contract years are a major factor for players, and you should know who’s contract is due up. That said, I have a hard time seeing Crawford besting last year’s numbers. If anything, maybe a couple more RBI.
5. For me, it’s a tie between Garza and Jackson, but if I had to go with one guy it would be Jackson. He has improved dramatically over the last three seasons and just moved to the NL West and has the luxury of being the third man in the rotation for a deceptively good team. Garza will probably strikeout more people, so if that’s a need of yours then there’s nothing wrong with getting him, but the AL East has a lot of good offenses.
Hope that helps. Email us if you have any more questions.
Liriano is having a great winter and spring so I am hoping for a bounceback. Matusz I like but the other guys, no way they are going to be less risk than Liriano. We will see.