Archive | March, 2010

Mar. 31: Rotations Start to Settle, Nate Robertson to Florida, and Ian Kinsler Likely to DL

We’re four days away from the Red Sox and Yankees facing off in Boston! Until then, here are some more headlines from Wednesday, March 31:

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How does my draft look?

Since Opening Day is a week away (wow!) I thought this would be a good time to post one of the several emails we’ve received regarding post-draft advice/analysis. This one comes from Eric:

“Hey Bryan, just got finished drafting. Overall I like my team, I had to take Haren in the 2nd and Hamels in 3rd because SP went flying. I also reached on some rookies 8-11 rds (Heyward, Strasburg, Matusz) but those were like my late round picks anyway. But here is how my team ended up:

C- Wieters
1B- Gonzalez
2B- Zobrist
SS- A. Ramirez
3B- Longoria
OF- Kemp
OF- B.J. Upton
OF- Cuddyer
Util- C. Jones
Util- C. Gonzalez
BN- Heyward
BN- Adam LaRoche
BN- Smoak
BN- S. Castro

SPs-
Haren
Hamels
Garza
Oswalt
Dempster
Strasburg
Matusz

RPs-
Bell
Marmol
Soriano

I like it. I got thrown off early and had to take another direction, but that’s how this league is. Let me know what you think of my team.”

On the surface, I really like the balance of your offense. You have an above average or great starter at just about every position, and at the ones you don’t (mainly SS), you found guys that are good, calculated risks. Your OF demonstrates this balance perfectly with the all-around stud in Kemp, the speedster with power potential in Upton, and the big power bat in Cuddyer. Nice job finding bats for your bench with high upside. I can’t preach enough how wasteful it is to put someone like Miguel Tejada on your bench. At best, you can find someone like that on free agency.

Interestingly, your SP looks a lot like the guys I have on my team as I drafted Hamels, Dempster, Strasburg, and Matusz as well. Obviously I like those guys, although I’m hesitant to project too much from Dempster. However, he does represent a good, proven commodity at a good value spot in the draft.

If I did have any words of advice or areas of improvement though, it’s these:

  • Roy Oswalt looks like he might be heading toward another injury-plagued season, so if possible you should try to move him for someone like Kevin Slowey who is looking good this spring after coming back from surgery that shortened his 2009 season.
  • I also am a fan of the “don’t draft elite closers” strategy, and you pegged some good ones. The only downside to this method is that you must be diligent throughout the season to make sure you don’t drop under three closers. In fact, if possible, it might be good for you to target a fourth, perhaps someone like Chris Perez (CLE), Franklin Morales (temporary in COL), Jason Frasor (TOR), or Jon Rauch (MIN, although they’re doing that whole bullpen-by-committee thing).

Overall, nice work!

What does everyone else think? If you have an opinion, leave it in the comments section. I’m sure Eric would love all the advice he can get!

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Mar. 30: Milton Bradley to Hit Cleanup, Jose Reyes Struggles, and Pittsburgh Pitchers to Bat Eighth?

After a busy weekend in which we didn’t get any Fantasy Headlines done, we return to our daily routine this Tuesday morning, March 30:

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Mar. 26: Brian Roberts to Start, Chicago Cubs to Name Rotation, and Milwaukee Makes Informal Announcement

Thank God it’s Friday, and thank God for our daily headlines. Here they are for March 26:

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Mar. 25: Josh Beckett Baffles Pirates, Yadier Molina Hurt, and Wade Davis to Start

Here are your daily headlines for Thursday, March 25:

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Podcast 3/25: Third Base Preview

Today George, Bryan, and Chris preview the third base position with their top 10 and a couple sleepers to target late in your draft. Email the show at contact@baseballprof.com with any questions and have them read on air! Also follow us on twitter @baseballprof.

By: Baseball Professor

 
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Quick Hits: ADP Reports

With the season quickly approaching and fantasy baseball drafts in full force, it’s time we take a look at some average draft positions that I think are too high or too low for my liking.

  • I already wrote about why I think Geovany Soto (181.7) will bounce back in 2010 so you can imagine why I believe Soto is a great value in drafts. Just one year removed from a Rookie of the Year campaign, Soto can provide great offensive numbers in the 19th round of 10-team mixed leagues.
  • Another great value at catcher, Kurt Suzuki (224.1) provides the same numbers as Yadier Molina (182.1) but 40 picks later. He also throws some sneaky steals into the mix.
  • It’s not like Adrian Gonzalez (27.8) has punched his ticket out of San Diego just yet, and until I see him in another uniform he isn’t worth a third rounder. He’s going 14 picks ahead of Joey Votto, 20 picks ahead of Justin Morneau, and 33 picks ahead of Kendry Morales, all of whom could match Gonzalez’s production in 2010.
  • It seems like every year Paul Konerko (218) slips to the later rounds, but with three-year averages of .260/27/80 you would think he was getting drafted earlier than the 22nd round in 10-team mixed leagues.
  • So far, Brian Roberts (42.9) is the fifth second baseman off the board and trending up despite some recent struggles with his back. Still, I would rather have Brandon Phillips (44.5), Ben Zobrist (64.6) and Aaron Hill (73.2) unless all signs point to Roberts being 100 percent healthy going into the season.
  • Third base is very weak this year, but Troy Glaus (217.2) could provide some good production late in the draft. He will be starting at first base for the Atlanta Braves this year, which means he will have dual eligibility as well.
  • Yeah he hit just .223 last season, but Jay Bruce (105.8) has been a home run machine in his first two seasons. In 2008, he hit 21 home runs in just 418 at bats (19.9 AB/HR) and followed it up with an even better season in 2009 as he hit 22 home runs in just 345 at bats (15.7 AB/HR). Outside of Jason Heyward you won’t find better power potential in the 11th round.
  • There is a lot of speed in the outfield this year and it’s proven by the likes of Juan Pierre (136.5), Nyjer Morgan (137.4), Julio Borbon (138.7), and Rajai Davis (161.5). All four players are legit 50-steal candidates and can be had after the 13th round in 10-team mixed leagues. You might want to reconsider players like Jacoby Ellsbury (20.8) and even Michael Bourn (120.7).
  • It seems like everyone is forgetting about the utility players as Vladimir Guerrero (156.1), David Ortiz (168.3), and Hideki Matsui (173.7) are all going after the 15th round in 10-team mixed leagues. Guerrero is looking good in Spring Training and Ortiz will give you near-30 home run and 100 RBI production. Matsui, if healthy, can provide with very good power numbers considering he is being drafted in the 18th round and should maintain OF eligibility.
  • Much like Konerko, Ted Lilly (197.2) always goes underappreciated in drafts and this year is no different. Of course, there are some concerns with his health coming into the season, but he is recovering well from shoulder surgery and could be back by mid-to-late April. Lilly can provide you with a very good K/9, low whip and decent win totals, which is good value in the 20th round if you are willing to hold onto him while he rehabs in the minors.
  • Some undrafted pitchers to look out for: Justin Duchscherer (good when healthy), Kevin Correia (great home park and second half), Bud Norris (good strikeout potential), Ryan Rowland-Smith (great defense and home park and should be #3 starter on Mariners).
  • Obviously, Chris Perez (221.5) should be getting drafted earlier with news that Kerry Wood (195.5) could be out for two months. Also, Perez owners should feel confident that he will keep his job as long as he pitches well in Wood’s absence so he would be worth an 18th-20th round pick. Wood should be going undrafted in every draft out there and at best is a reserve pick in deeper leagues.
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