We thought that it would be a good idea to post real email conversations we have with real readers every now and again. Our guess is that if someone has a question they need to email us about, chances are someone else might be facing the same dilemma. It wouldn’t be fair of us to share the answers with just one person, would it? Of course not!
Kicking off our Mailbag series, we have a question from Paul coming from way back on January 31.
Paul writes:
“Good Day Gents,
I play in a 14 team, 5X5, 11 Positional + 8 Pitcher, $210 budget, Auction League with one keeper allowed.
The players listed below are the candidates from my team. As a reference … these were the salaries of other players in our league: Pujols ($45), Braun ($39), Lincecum ($33), Haren ($29), etc. Top-tier players in our league go for a lot of money.
I’m hopeful your expertise can assist me making a tough decision … who to keep? I want to get the best bang for my buck.
- Justin Upton @ $24
- Nyjer Morgan @ $6
- Josh Johnson @ $21
- Ubaldo Jimenez @ $13
- Joe Blanton @ $8
Thank you very much.”
No, Paul. Thank you very much. This gives us a chance to dive into the fascinating world of auction leagues where you need a different skill set to win. It’s kind of like transitioning from Limit to No-Limit Texas Hold ‘em. The game is basically the same, but you can’t play it the same way.
After looking over your league specifications, the players you can keep, and other players of similar value, we think you should keep Justin Upton. He could produce near the level of Ryan Braun but at a fraction of the price. He’s only 22 years old and is getting drafted in non-auction formats as early as late-first to second round. While there are a ton of stats to justify why Upton is the guy to keep, we don’t even need them. His price tag of $24 is just too good of a bargain. If Braun is going for $39, I’d pay $35 for Upton. Even though we like the values of Jimenez and Morgan, too, you can’t pass up on Upton.
Just because we got caught up in the moment (isn’t fantasy baseball awesome?!), here’s what we think of the rest of the players you mentioned.
Ubaldo Jimenez – He finished 2009 as the 17th best SP. His ERA has consistently fallen over the last three seasons, his K/9 has consistently risen, and he finally got his walks under control. He also pitched better in the second half last season (3.08 ERA), showing his strength and durability. Colorado is a good team in a division without a clear-cut favorite, so Jimenez should also have a good share of win opportunities. If he goes for around $13, or even a little more, get him.
Nyjer Morgan – While he won’t give you anything in power categories (HR and RBI), he is a huge threat on the base paths. He finished tied for 4th in MLB in stolen bases (42) despite only playing in 120 games. Also, Washington has committed to making him their everyday lead-off man. With Morgan’s on-base proficiency (.370 OBP in the minors, career .362 OBP in the Majors) and with guys like Dunn and Zimmerman behind him, there’s little reason to think he shouldn’t should approach 100 runs. At $6 he is a great value, and we’d even be willing to go a couple dollars over that.
Josh Johnson – He’s an attractive keeper given how talented he is and how well he did last season, but $21 is a bit steep for a player who just got a major contract and who threw a ton of innings last season. Johnson’s 209 IP was a huge increase over the 87.1 IP he threw in 2008 and the most he’s ever thrown by over 50 innings. As a rough comparison, look at how Cole Hamels did last season after throwing nearly 60 more innings than 2007. Save your money and let other people overbid on Johnson.
Joe Blanton – He has his price, but around $8 you can find pitchers with a lot more upside. I don’t know what Brett Anderson is going for, but I’d rather have him than Blanton.
For reference, this site may be of use to all you auction-leaguers out there if you haven’t found it already. http://www.tgfantasybaseball.com/baseball/dollar_parms.cfm
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