Joe Mauer and his 28 HR are the center of one of the hottest offseason fantasy baseball debates of the last few seasons. Blessed with unbelievable baseball ability, Mauer has been a fan favorite for years and always among the highest drafted catchers. After belting 28 HR last year, he is undoubtedly the number one ranked backstop heading into 2010, but debate swirls around what kind of power numbers we can expect.
Estimates usually range from the 18-20, to upwards of 30-32. So what is the real answer? Some of the links below will help you to answer that question.
- This is a great thread I have been contributing to over the last week or so. The last post that I wrote explains why I expect him to hit around 20-22 HR, but everyone seems to have an opinion on it. Read through the thread here.
- Bill James projects 22 HR for Mauer as well. You can find the full projection and more in-depth sabermetrics at Joe Mauer’s Fangraphs.com page.
- Dave Cameron from Fangraphs.com adds in his two cents following Mauer’s eighth HR last season.
- A post on LOLsports with some statistical backing as to why Mauer will not keep up last year’s torrid pace.
- Baseball Professor’s very own, Chris Campanelli, wrote an article on the subject recently.
As a note, I cannot find any articles with legitimate statistical analysis or historical comparisons as to why Mauer will maintain his HR pace.
Call it author’s bias if you want, but have a look for yourself, and if you do find anything legitimate to suggest he may maintain his HR rates from 2009, please please please post it in the comments section. These posts aren’t here to further my opinions, but to organize all the facts in one place.
Happy web hunting.
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