Archive | January, 2010

The Courtroom: Upton v. McCutchen

By on January 31, 2010 | Comments { 6 }

Cases already heard:

Cabrera v. Fielder

All rise! Court is now in session.

In our second case we have the Plaintiff, Mr. Melvin Emmanuel “B.J.” Upton, vs. the Defendant, Mr. Andrew McCutchen. Mr. Upton claims that after a down season in 2009, he is being wrongfully overlooked in drafts. We have George Fitopoulos arguing for Mr. Upton and Bryan Curley arguing on the behalf of Mr. McCutchen. Let’s get it on!

Opening Statements

George says:

There’s no way to sugarcoat it; if you bought into B.J. Upton last season your team was screwed from day one. It wasn’t pretty as he posted career worsts in important hitting categories such as batting average (.241), on-base percentage (.312), walks (57), BABIP (.310), and line drive percentage (15.4) in just his third full season as a pro. It was an all-around disaster of a season for Upton, and those who bought into the hype created by his power surge in the 2008 playoffs paid dearly for it. However, a down 2009 season doesn’t mean he cannot salvage what little fantasy value he has left. Remember, he still managed to steal 42 bases in 2009 despite those low on-base numbers.

Upton’s track record suggests that 2009 was an unlucky one for him, and he should have much more success getting on base this season. His .310 BABIP was awful considering his career averages and the type of speed he brings to the game, and if it returns to his more normal level of .350, his batting average (and other categories) would rise significantly.

Bryan says:

Drafted in the first round of the 2005 amateur draft, McCutchen is a top prospect that has risen steadily through the Pirates’ minor league system. He parlayed his success at lower levels into quick results in the Majors using a disciplined eye and good contact rates to become a pesky leadoff batter. In only 108 games last season, McCutchen scored 74 runs, stole 22 bases, batted .286, and even hit 12 HR with 54 RBI. Those results, projected over 150 games, come out to 103/.286/17/75/31. Having already produced similar numbers in the minors, McCutchen is clearly on the brink of becoming a coveted fantasy player.

Arguments

George says:

By looking at Upton’s 2009 batted ball numbers, I can see exactly where he went wrong. For one, his line drive percentage was a very uncharacteristic 15.4 percent, which is almost four points lower than his average from 2006-2008. Also, Upton’s approach at the plate was far from patient as he swung at a career-high 19.5 percent of pitches outside of the strike zone, which led to a BB% of under 10.0 (9.1%) for the first time in his three full seasons as a pro. All of this led to a low .310 BABIP, which obviously affected his batting average and other subsequent categories. I would say there is a better chance for him to return to (or at least approach) his 2007-2008 form rather than mimic that of 2009 because his career numbers in both the minor and major leagues suggest that he is a speedy guy who knows how to get on base and hit for a decent average. The only real unknown is his power, which shouldn’t be an issue here because he will hit at least 12 home runs, the same ballpark that McCutchen is in.

So my argument is you generally should believe Upton’s floor to be around 75/.270/12/60/40. The big difference between Upton and McCutchen is that Upton has proven he can do it at the pro-level for more than a season and over 140+ games, while McCutchen has only had a successful 108 games in his entire career. A lot of people might think they are going the safer route by picking McCutchen over the unpredictable Upton, but that is not the case here. Upton should work to fix what plagued him last season and will go back to being a respectable fantasy player with major upside. It’s easy to forget that this five-year pro is only 25 years old.

Bryan says:

I won’t sit here and try to make excuses for why McCutchen will steal 40 bases. Barring an unforeseen turn of events, it’s not going to happen. But, given McCutchen’s stolen base totals last season and his track record in the minors, 30 seems like a good estimate.

The real advantage McCutchen has over Upton is his consistent batting average. He was a career .286 hitter in the minors who only once hit below .283, and in his first season with the Pirates he picked up right where he left off with an average of, you guessed it, .286. Upton was able to maintain a good batting average in the minors as well, but in parts of five Major League seasons (including his three full seasons), he’s a career .266 hitter, only once batting above .273.

How does McCutchen manage to be so consistent? It’s really quite simple; he plays within himself. Yeah, that’s one of those phrases High School coaches use on their 120-pound, ego-driven players to teach them not to swing for the fences every at-bat, but it has real significance in McCutchen’s case. He knows he isn’t a big slugger so he makes contact with a lot of pitches (90.0 Z-Contact%) and doesn’t hit a ton of fly balls (39.1 FB%, 1.08 GB:FB ratio).

That kind of talent and discipline prevents the large statistical variances we see other players have from season to season. At only 23 years old, McCutchen is growing into a more polished and powerful hitter (increasing ISOs from 2007-2009), and he’s already had just as many successful MLB seasons as Upton has.

Closing Statements

George says:

It’s true that if you are going to draft Upton, you will have to have some faith that he will rebound from an awful 2009 season. I believe that he has too many skills to hit .241 again and the Tampa Bay Rays have a much better offense around Upton for him to succeed, and he’s shown what he is capable of, which is getting on base at a very good rate and stealing bases. McCutchen may be the sexier pick because he is a prospect who showed good progress in his first season, but let’s not forget that Upton is just 25 years old himself and not some 35-year old player on the back nine of his career. It’s too early to close the book on B.J. Upton.

Bryan says:

Mr. Upton’s counsel would like to have you believe his client has been successful longer in the Majors than Mr. McCutchen, but that just isn’t the case. Other than his 2007, which he has twice since tried to reproduce and has failed both times, do any of his other seasons scream success?

After a down 2008, Upton fans said that 2009 would be the year. Instead, he fell even further. Sure, Upton is going to improve on 2009. He has to, right? Even when he does, even when he gets his BABIP back up from .310 (already pretty solid), will that push his batting average any higher than the mid-.270s? And why do we need to assume he’ll hit more than 12 home runs? He has only averaged 10 over the last two seasons.

Given McCutchen’s seamless transition from the minors to the Majors (something Upton cannot say), and his upward-trending standard statistics (HR, SB) and peripherals (HR/AB, OPS), why would anyone expect a regression from last season’s stats? In short, there is little reason to believe McCutchen won’t continue to improve upon what he’s done over the last several seasons. Don’t think of it as closing the book on Upton; think of it as opening the book on McCutchen.

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Geovany Soto: Between the (Stat) Lines

By on January 30, 2010 | Comments { 4 }

If I told you that Geovany Soto was a better hitter in 2009 than in 2008 would you believe me?

Of course not. You would look at his Rookie of the Year award and say “how can a .218 batting average beat that?” Then you would probably commit me to a mental institution for having such outlandish thoughts.

Now what if I told you that Soto’s 2009 season was mostly a product of bad luck and misfortune? Ahh, now we’re making a little sense!

The Cubs were an all-around mess last season with injuries to Alfonso Soriano, Derrek Lee, Aramis Ramirez, and Soto. Let’s not forget to mention the failed Milton Bradley experiment and the fact that only two players managed over 100 games and a .260 batting average. The team finished an unimpressive 83-78, their worst record in three years. Needless to say, it was not a good year to be on the Cubs.

Soto was no exception as he battled shoulder and oblique injuries in his second pro season and posted a .218 batting average with 11 HR and 47 RBI in just 108 games. A lot of people look at the numbers and slap on the popular “sophomore slump” tag that so many second-year pros go through. Did Soto really have a sophomore slump, or was it more a reversal of fortune?

The most popular stat in fantasy baseball these days is BABIP, or in other words, the batting average of balls you hit in play. In Soto’s impressive 2008 rookie season he managed a .337 BABIP, but that number took a huge dive in 2009 and bottomed out at .251. Using a BABIP calculator, which was created by Chris Dutton and Peter Bendix, we can calculate that Soto’s expected BABIP for 2009 was .312 (61 points higher than his actual total).

Also, history would suggest that 2009 was an exception rather than the norm because Soto’s career BABIP in the minor’s was well over .300 as well. I think it’s fair to say that Soto didn’t get many friendly bounces last season. Let’s move on.

Soto’s luck was so bad in 2009 that he actually posted worse numbers while improving at the plate.

In 2008, Soto posted a BB% of 11.0, swung at 20.1 percent of pitches outside the strike zone, and made contact on 83.4 percent of strikes. That year he won Rookie of the Year and made the All-Star team. In 2009, Soto’s BB% rose to 12.9, he chased  fewer pitches outside the strike zone (17.8%), and made contact on more strikes (87.3%). In this year he won, as Jim Mora would so nicely put it, “diddly poo.” Only a Cubs player would improve his approach at the plate and be rewarded with mediocrity.

My final point is that a lot of people tend to think that Soto’s power disappeared in 2009, which is a false statement. It wasn’t as good as his rookie year, but that’s to be expected when you’re battling shoulder and oblique injuries most of the year. In fact, Soto’s 31 extra base hits made up 43 percent of his total hits in 2009, which was right on his 2008 pace of 42.5 percent. Also, his ISO was .163, which was down from his 2008 mark of .219, but would have still ranked fifth among catchers had he qualified.

Currently Soto’s ADP is 180 on couchmanagers.com and he was drafted 176th overall in ESPN’s first mock draft. Players such as Miguel Montero, Jorge Posada, Bengie Molina, and Kurt Suzuki are being draft 20-60 spots ahead of Soto, which makes him an amazing value because he is due for a very nice bounce-back season in 2010.

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The Best Pitcher in Fantasy Baseball: Dan Sabathia

By on January 29, 2010 | Comments { 2 }

I can picture you reading this headline and thinking “who the hell is that?” as you type a quick search into Google to make sure you haven’t missed the next big prospect in baseball.

Well, let me save you some time because he isn’t a real person, but he is the greatest fantasy baseball pitcher of the last three years, and if you play your cards right he could be yours, too. Allow me to explain.

Every year it’s the same old song and dance. Dan Haren has an amazing first half and then fizzles out after the All-Star break while C.C. Sabathia does the exact opposite. For the past two seasons, I have capitalized on Sabathia’s second half surges and rode past Haren owners into the playoffs, and it’s always the same conversation–”Man I really thought this was the year Haren would put it together for an entire season.” I even won a slap bet last year against Baseball Professor’s own Bryan Curley because he foolishly thought that Haren would be better than Sabathia after the All-Star break.

It’s time to face reality folks. Haren is what he is. He’s an elite first-half pitcher, who can still bring value to your team in the second half, but not at the level you would expect.

Strategy time.

Instead of holding onto Haren for an entire season, it would make sense to trade him at his optimal value for someone who can help you win in the later, more crucial months. Enter 290 pounds of hat-tilted, south-pawed greatness. Who better to trade Haren straight up for than the aforementioned Sabathia?

Here’s how both Haren and Sabathia have both fared before and after the All-Star break over the last three years:

C.C. Sabathia IP W ERA WHIP K K/9
Pre All-Star 399 28 3.70 1.19 351 7.92
Post All-Star 325 27 2.33 1.07 306 8.47
Dan Haren IP W ERA WHIP K K/9
Pre All-Star 385 27 2.34 0.92 342 7.99
Post All-Star 283 18 4.33 1.37 279 8.87

It’s clear that Haren is the superior first half pitcher and Sabathia is the better second half pitcher, hence the name Dan Sabathia. (For those who still don’t get it, I took the first half of Dan Haren’s name and the second half of C.C. Sabathia’s name. Clever right?) Now, let’s take a look at the type of pitcher you could have had over the last three seasons  if you drafted Haren and traded him at the All-Star break straight up for C.C. Sabathia:

Dan Sabathia: 710 IP, 54 W, 2.33 ERA, 0.99 WHIP, 648 K, 8.21 K/9

It’s pretty hard to find a player who has been better than that over the last three seasons, or even in any three consecutive seasons in fantasy baseball. Now, the only question that remains is how do you know that you will be able to trade Haren for Sabathia straight up? Well, you don’t really, but with the stats that Haren puts up in the first half it shouldn’t be hard to make the other owner bite at an offer. In fact, even if you have to sweeten the pot for your opponent it’s worth it in the end because how can you put a value on owning the greatest unknown fantasy baseball pitcher in the game?

He is Dan Sabathia. I’d say the name has a nice ring to it, but it just doesn’t.

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Deviation From Career Norms: Starting Pitcher

By on January 27, 2010 | Comments { 0 }

By: Chris Campanelli (Email)

Today I will be concluding this series by taking an in-depth look at starting pitchers.  Pitchers are a lot more complex than hitters in that they are far less consistent.  Despite this fact, there are certain pitchers who produce similar stat lines year in and year out.  However, the puzzle that is drafting starting pitching gets even more complicated when these usually consistent pitchers deviate from their career norms.  In the paragraphs below I will be identifying some of these pitchers who “threw a curveball” last season and produced stat lines out of the ordinary.  Then I will determine what we can reasonably expect from them this year.

Javier Vazquez

Last year Vazquez was a fantasy ace.  He won 15 games with a 2.87 ERA and a 1.03 WHIP, striking out 238 batters.  Although we anticipated a good year moving from the AL to the NL, nobody could have expected a Cy Young caliber year.

In Vazquez’s previous season in the NL (2005 with Arizona), he finished with an ERA of 4.42 and a WHIP of 1.25.  Also, in Vazquez’s previous six seasons in the NL before his one year stint with the Yankees, he never had an ERA lower than 3.24.  Not only was Vazquez a lot better last year than in any year of his career, he was also a lot better than any of his previous seasons in the NL.

So what made Vazquez so dominant last year?  For starters, his control was a lot better.  He walked only 44 batters last year, the lowest total of his career.  As a result, he also had the best K/BB ratio of his career with a K/9 of 9.77, the highest of his career.  His high propensity for striking out batters combined with his lowest-ever HR rate (0.82 HR/9) led to Vazquez having the highest percentage of runners left on base in his career.

But the question remains, how will Vazquez fare in his second stint with the Yankees?  Because Vazquez let up a career-low 20 HR last year, I think it is reasonable to assume that he improved his command in that he must have thrown more pitches on the corners and fewer pitches down the middle of plate.  Improved command, coupled with his improved control (fewer walks) bodes well for Vazquez in 2010.

He should drastically outperform his numbers with New York in 2004 when he posted a 4.91 ERA and a 1.29 WHIP with only 150 strikeouts, however the move to the AL East combined with the hitter friendly confines of Yankee stadium should prevent Vazquez from matching last year’s totals.  I expect him to let up about 25 HR with an ERA around 3.65 and a WHIP hovering just below 1.20.  He should eclipse 200 strikeouts once again and has a good chance to build upon his win total.

Not a fantasy ace, but a good number three starter.

Matt Cain

Matt Cain took a huge step forward in his fourth full year in the big leagues.  He finished the year with 14 wins, a 2.89 ERA, a 1.18 WHIP, and 171 strikeouts.  In his previous three years, Cain averaged 9 wins, a 3.85 ERA, a 1.30 WHIP, and 176 strikeouts.

Unfortunately for Cain, last year seems unsustainable due to the high degree of luck he had.  In 2009, Cain had an extremely low BABIP of .268.  This was the lowest of his career and a lot lower than the MLB average of .303.  A low BABIP such as Cain’s indicates that a lot more batted balls found fielders’ gloves than should have.

Cain also let up the most HR of his career last year with 22.  His HR/9 ratio of 0.91 was also the highest of his career.

Another lucky stat was Cain’s LOB% (Left on-Base Percentage).  His LOB% of 81.6% was the highest of his career, and the average LOB% for pitchers last year was 71.9%.  This shows that Cain stranded a lot more runners than the MLB average.

A possible explanation for a high LOB% would be that the pitcher strikes out a lot of batters, however this is not the case with Cain.  His K/9 of 7.07 was just above league average.  It’s also alarming that Cain’s K/9 rate has been dropping from year to year.

In all likelihood, Cain’s BABIP will increase next year and his LOB% will decrease.  This does not bode well for someone who is letting up more HR and striking out fewer batters.

Expect a regression for Cain next year with an ERA close to the mid 3.00s and a WHIP around 1.25.

Derek Lowe

From 2005 to 2008, Derek Lowe was the model of consistently for the Dodgers.  Over that time span he averaged 141 strikeouts with an ERA of 3.59 and a WHIP of 1.23.  Last year with the Braves, Lowe was brutal.  He finished the year with an ERA of 4.67, a WHIP of 1.52, and only 111 strikeouts.

After looking at Lowe’s 2009 more closely, I’m more inclined to believe that next year will be pretty much the same.

What made Lowe so successful in the past was his ability to induce the groundball and get out of those tough situations.  However, last year saw a huge dip in Lowe’s groundball percentage.  He only induced groundballs 56.3% of the time.  From 2005 to 2008, Lowe’s groundball percentage was never below 60%.

Another alarming stat last year was Lowe’s K/BB ratio of 1.76.  The year before it was 3.27, and as you might have guessed, Lowe walked more batters last year and struck out fewer.

Another factor going against Lowe is his age.  He’s 36 years old and is well past the age pitchers where start declining.

As a result of all these factors, I can no longer consider Lowe a useful fantasy pitcher.  Last year began a downward trend for him and it’s likely to continue this year.

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Jan. 27: Drew Stubbs 2010 Outlook

By on January 27, 2010 | Comments { 2 }

On Opening Day 2009 I was feeling pretty good about my team, but the good times faded fast. Between Josh Hamilton’s injury woes, Lance Berkman and David Wright’s consistent struggles, and the mess that was Corey Hart, I quickly had to turn to free agency in hopes of finding stopgaps until long-term fixes presented themselves.

As the season was winding down and I found myself desperately clinging onto a playoff spot, I had a starting lineup full of players I never anticipated. Somehow, with the likes of Garrett Jones, Chris Coghlan, Erick Aybar, Juan Rivera, and Juan Uribe playing everyday, I managed to make the playoffs and go on a tear en route to a League Championship.

Now entering 2010, those pleasant surprises should all find spots on Opening Day fantasy rosters, but there is one name I didn’t mention who played a crucial role for my team during the brief span I had him: Drew Stubbs.

Somehow Stubbs managed to muscle eight HR in only 180 AB with Cincinnati (one every 22.5 AB). For comparison, he hit only 28 HR in 1588 AB in the minors (one every 56.7 AB). Stubbs is a former first-round pick (eighth overall in 2006) and rose quickly through the Reds’ system, playing at five classes from ’06 to ’08.

What can we expect out of Stubbs in 2010?

  • The Diamond Cutter writes, “Stubbs also has some pretty good gap-to-gap pop that can develop into home run power, especially in the home run friendly Great American Ballpark.”
  • As always, check out Stubbs’ Fangraphs.com page for all of his minor league stats as well as some advanced metrics from his 2009 season with the Reds.
  • Charlie Scrabbles at Red Reporter writes, “Joey Votto is good at baseball. But is he really the best player on the team?” Does that honor belong to Stubbs? Read what Scrabbles thinks.
  • Razzball.com projects Stubbs as the 49th best OF in 2010, with a line of 80/.255/7/50/35.
  • And because it’s always helpful, check out Stubbs’ competition in the Cincinnati OF.
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Deviation From Career Norms: Outfield

By on January 25, 2010 | Comments { 0 }

By: Chris Campanelli (Email)

Like a seeing eye single, I will be moving out of the infield and into the outfield.  Today I will be examining the outfield position and looking at players whose past year was different from their career norms.  Then I will determine if last year represents the beginning of a new trend or a one-year anomaly.

Grady Sizemore

If you had the misfortune of spending a first round pick on Grady Sizemore last year, you probably now refer to him as Grady “insert derogatory name” Sizemore.  His first round status was certainly warranted going into 2009.  He was a young 30/30 candidate with a respectable average who you knew was going to score 100 runs.

Unfortunately, Sizemore posted un-Sizemore like numbers in 2009.  He managed to hit only 18 home runs and steal only 13 bases.  He was also a batting average killer, finishing with at .248, easily the worst of his career.  Fortunately for his fantasy owners, Sizemore was shut down for the last month of the season due to injury.  I only say fortunately because many of you probably had a hard time benching your first round pick.  With the injury, you could finally get him off your active roster.

Before trying to figure out if Sizemore will regain his All-Star form, we must look at his health.  According to the Cleveland Plain Dealer, Sizemore is almost 100 percent recovered from elbow and hernia surgery.  That is good news and means he should be ready to go by Spring Training.

To determine if Sizemore can rebound next year we must take a closer look at his 2009 stats.  Last year, Sizemore finished with the a BABIP of .276, the lowest of his career.  To put that in perspective, his career average BABIP is .317.  Sizemore also had the lowest LD% of his career and the highest FB% of his career.  This indicates that for some reason, Sizemore wasn’t driving the ball as hard as he usually does.  Instead, he was getting under the ball and popping it up.  One possible explanation is that his elbow was bothering him for most of the year, inhibiting his ability to swing through the ball.

Despite the bad numbers, there is some evidence to suggest that Sizemore may have improved as a hitter last year.  He swung at fewer pitches outside the strike zone than he did in 2006, 2007, or 2008, and not surprisingly he also swung at more pitches inside the strike zone than in any other year.  More encouragingly, Sizemore made contact on pitches inside of the strike zone 90.8 percent of the time, good for his best rate ever.

What this means is that, provided Sizemore’s elbow is healthy, he should be able to drive more balls next year than he has in any other year.  This indicates that Sizemore should be able to post similar numbers in 2010 as he did from 2005-2008, thus regaining his status as one of fantasy’s best outfielders.

Don’t be afraid to draft Sizemore in the early rounds next year.  If he falls past the second round, he will be a nice draft day bargain.

Alfonso Soriano

From 2002 to 2008, Soriano put up monster fantasy numbers.  He batted .285 over that time span while averaging 102 R, 36 HR, 98 RBI, and 29 SB per year.  In 2009, Soriano’s numbers took a steep hit.  He batted .241 with 64 R, 20 HR, 55 RBI, and nine SB.

Instead of blindly drafting Soriano this year and hoping for a rebound, we must figure out if last year was an anomaly or the beginning of a downward trend.

We can do this by taking a look at how pitchers pitched him last year.  Soriano is a notorious free swinger who murders fastballs.  Opposing hurlers took advantage of this and only threw him fastballs 46 percent of the time, easily the lowest percentage of his career.  He also was thrown more cutters last year than in any previous year.  In addition, opposing pitchers threw him sliders 24.7 percent of the time.  The average percentage of sliders he usually saw was 20.6 percent.

This data suggests that pitchers are now giving Soriano fewer pitches he can hit and more pitches that he can’t.  Since Soriano doesn’t take many walks and is unlikely to develop plate discipline at such an old age (34), he will be hard pressed to have a batting average as high as .285 again.

The most alarming stat to me last year was Soriano’s SB total.  A lot of what made Soriano an elite outfielder was his speed.  He was one of the few players with 30/30 potential, but last year he only stole nine bases.  In fact, he has not stolen more than 20 bases in any of his three years with the Cubs.  Since Soriano is getting up there in age and has a lot of wear and tear on his legs, his days of stealing 20+ bases are likely over.

In other words, last year represented a new trend for Soriano.  His average is likely to fall in the .260 to low .270 range, and you can kiss the high SB total goodbye.  His run total will also be low because his days as a leadoff hitter are over.  The only stats that will remain the same are his power totals.  He should still be able to hit around 30 HR, with most coming off the inevitable mistake by the opposing pitcher, and drive in around 90 runs while hitting in the 6th hole.

In addition to a declining skill set, Soriano is not a good candidate to make it through an entire season healthy.  In the last three years he has not played in more than 135 games.

Gone are the days where you can feel comfortable drafting Alfonso Soriano to anchor your outfield.  Draft him if you wish but understand that he is no more than a third outfielder at this stage of his career.

Alex Rios

What to make of Alex Rios.  Is he ever going to reach his potential or will he keep teasing us with good-but-not-great years?  This year a new question presents itself.  Will Alex Rios even get back to the his 2006-2008 level?

From 2006-2008 Rios batted .296 and averaged 91 R, 19 HR, 82 RBI, and 21 SB, however he took a step back in 2009 and batted .247 with 63 R, 17 HR, 71 RBI, and 24 SB.  Things got so bad for Rios in Toronto that the Blue Jays just gave him away to the White Sox.  Sure, it was a salary dump, but the Jays didn’t even ask for a prospect in return for Rios.

The main culprit for Rios’ down year in ’09 was a career-worst BABIP of .277.  From 2006-2008 his lowest BABIP was .324.  His walk percentage was also down last year, only 5.8 percent compared to 7 .0 percent in 2006, 7.7 percent in 2007, and 6.4 percent in 2008.  Rios’ ISO and OPS were also down significantly.  All these signs point to a down year for Rios and do not suggest the beginning of a new trend.

As a result, I’m inclined to believe that Rios will regain his 2006-2008 form, however I do not anticipate him ever reaching his potential and becoming a 30/30 player.  His career ground ball percentage of 42.8 percent is much too high if he is to hit 30 HR, but I wouldn’t be surprised if he stole over 30 bases.  In fact, he stole 32 bases in 2008 and 24 in 2009 despite posting the worst OBP of his career.

Rios could provide a nice draft day bargain in the middle rounds of your upcoming draft.  Just don’t overdraft him expecting big power numbers.  After all, he’s 29 years old and can’t be considered a young player anymore.

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Ian Stewart: Between the (Stat) Lines

By on January 25, 2010 | Comments { 4 }

By: Bryan Curley (Email)

Navigating the Draft Day waters is difficult. Few managers have the skill and foresight to assure they get a quality starter at every position, maximizing their team’s output while minimizing its weaknesses.

Your team’s success this season will largely be due to how you handle the limited depth at third base.

Once you get past the sure producers, guys like Alex Rodriguez, Evan Longoria, David Wright, Ryan Zimmerman, Mark Reynolds, Pablo Sandoval and Kevin Youkilis, there’s a steep drop off to the next tier of talent. Those seven sure-things all have ADPs of 40 or better (according to couchmanagers.com), so they’re going early. If you’re in a 12-team league, or even a 10-team league, you need to be careful if you’re approaching round four and you haven’t grabbed your third baseman yet.

So who should you target? Let’s take a look at the candidates:

PLAYERADPRAVGHRRBISBProj. PSR
Ramirez, Aramis54.476.292269723.69
Figgins, Chone55.397.287551374.07
Young, Michael69.388.299168083.36
Beckham, Gordon85.293.2882196104.49
Jones, Chipper99.978.296217832.81
Tejada, Miguel112.684.299189143.41
Cantu, Jorge120.767.277188721.68
Stewart, Ian127.277.255247682.18
DeRosa, Mark132.876.260177130.91

(ignore arrows)

All stats are projections courtesy of Bill James Projections. Players are sorted according to their ADP with their projected PSR in the last column (check out our PSR Rankings Explained page if you have no clue what this is).

The players we see here are being drafted over a wide range of rounds from the sixth (Ramirez) to the 14th (DeRosa). Also, with the exceptions of Beckham and Stewart, they’re veteran players with stable career trends, the only knocks on whom are their injury concerns (mainly Ramirez and Jones).

This brings us back to the question at hand. If you missed one of the top seven (or even if you got one of them and are just looking for a backup), who are the best players to target in this group? ADP is a huge part of this discussion because if you are choosing between two similar players and they have vastly different ADPs, the question on who to take really isn’t a question at all. We see this occur with Young and Tejada. Both players have nearly identical PSRs and are actually projected to perform almost identically across the board, but Tejada has an ADP over 40 picks later. In comparison to Young, this makes Tejada a great value pick.

But Tejada isn’t my favorite player in this group. That honor belongs to Ian Stewart.

With a Projected PSR of only 2.18, Stewart certainly doesn’t jump out at you. If all of these players performed according to the Bill James Projections, he wouldn’t be anything special, but this is one instance where the projections are wrong.

Popular opinion among fantasy owners is that Stewart provides a good power option in the mid-to-late rounds, but he’ll never have the batting average to be given serious starting consideration. Anyone who thinks this hasn’t looked closely enough at the numbers:

  • Stewart had his best production batting 6th last season, actually managing a respectable 46/.277/16/45/5 in only 58 games. Given Garrett Atkins’ relocation to Baltimore and Stewart’s assumed development, he should see much more time at this spot in the lineup than he did in ’09.
  • While he’s only a career .238 hitter in the Majors, did you know he batted .293 in 2297 career minor league AB?
  • You also probably didn’t know he posted a line of 92/.319/30/101/19 in 131 minor league games in 2004.

Sure, that great season was ages ago when Stewart was only playing at class A, but he actually carried a .300+ average all the way to AAA, batting .304 in 112 games in 2007. In 2008 at AAA, he batted .280 with 19 HR, 57 RBI and 7 SB in only 69 games.

Believe it or not, that’s the kind of production we’ll be seeing from Stewart in 2010. No, he probably won’t hit 40 HR, but I’m seeing a .270+ AVG and 30+ HR. Do I have anything to back this up? Of course I do. This is Baseball Professor after all.

BABIP, LD% and Other Metrics

Stewart batted only .228 last season, but his BABIP was just .275. In his other two Major League seasons, Stewart posted BABIPs of .320 (’07) and .364 (’08), so even if those are a bit high, we can see that .275 is a bit low. His 2009 BABIP was probably depressed due to his LD%, which fell to 14.1 percent (his previous career low was 19.2%).

Interestingly, the drop in line drive frequency almost solely resulted in an increase in ground ball frequency. Stewart’s GB% rose from 31.4 percent to 40.2 percent whereas his FB% only rose from 43.6 percent to 45.7 percent.

He also saw an increase in his HR/FB rate for the second straight season, up to 18.8 percent from 13.3 percent. Because Stewart has shown a steady increase over his three Major League seasons and demonstrated good HR numbers in the minors, the 5.5 point jump isn’t unexpected.

Plate Discipline

Stewart has also been showing improved plate discipline ever since he made it to the Big Leagues. His O-Swing% (percent of pitches he swings at outside the strike zone) has fallen for three straight seasons (35.6%, 28.5%, 22.0%), and as a result his first-pitch strike rate has fallen accordingly.

Lower first-pitch strike rates lead to better walk rates. Over Stewart’s minor league career, his walk rate, batting average and HR rate showed great positive correlation.

Year League BB PA HR BB% AVG AB/HR
2003 Rook 29 257 10 11.3% .317 22.4
2004 A 66 581 30 11.4% .319 16.8
2005 Adv A 52 499 17 10.4% .274 25.6
2006 AA 50 528 10 9.5% .268 46.2
2007 AAA 49 474 15 10.3% .304 27.6
2008 AAA 34 298 19 11.4% .304 13.5

Notice how as his walk rate fell, his batting average and HR rate fell as well. Let’s look more closely at his batting average as a function of his walk rate.

This best fit line gives us the most accurate illustration possible of the effect Stewart’s walk rate had on his batting average in the minors, and clearly there is a strong positive correlation between the two. Given Stewart’s wildly erratic batting averages, GB%/LD% rates and BABIP in his short time with the Rockies, it’s difficult to tell exactly what his trends are, however we can clearly see he has improved his plate discipline each year and that his walk rates have been increasing. Despite the disappointing .228 average last season, his past tells us he should improve greatly from that. In 2009, Stewart had a walk rate of 11.4 percent, a rate he achieved three times in the minors (11.3% in ’03, 11.4% in ’04, 11.4% in ’08). Each time he maintained a batting average over .300.

2010 Outlook

Do I think Stewart will bat .300 for the Rockies in 2010? It’s possible, but I wouldn’t bet on it. I do think that with a little more luck and an improved LD%, Stewart should be able to bat at least .270. Couple that with more playing time in light of Atkins’ departure, his 30+ HR power, and the little speed he has, and Stewart clearly becomes a bargain in the 13th round.

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