By: Bryan Curley (Email)
Don’t forget to check out a review of last season’s first basemen to see who was legit and who wasn’t.
In an attempt to analyze the direction the position is heading, I decided to take a look at the last three years of averages for first basemen to see if I could find any trends that can help you come draft day. So what are we looking at?
- Players for each season were divided into three categories depending on where they finished the regular season in terms of fantasy ranking: 1 to 5, 6 to 10, and 11 to 20. This lets us look at the elite starters, the average starters, and the first group of replacements, showing the depth of the position so you can decide if you want to jump on an elite starter or wait for one of the platoon-type players.
- For a longer explanation, try this.
So take a look at each of the graphs below to get an idea of some of the trends we see developing. Click on each graph to enlarge.
Runs – Quick Analysis: For the third straight season, run totals for elite first basemen rose, which is interesting because the batting average among elite first basemen plummeted this season (which you can see below). Of course, mark Reynolds’ .260 average was a big part of that, but he made up for it with good speed (putting himself in scoring position). What’s the take-home message here? Any of the top 10 first basemen will get you good run totals, but if you miss out on an elite one, you will have to find that kind of production at another position, or by spot starting backups.
Homeruns – Quick Analysis: Homeruns showed extreme linear consistency over the last three seasons. After a brief drop in elite HR production in 2008 (Howard hitting 11 more than any other 1B), we saw a return to form in 2009 as the top four first basemen all belted 44 or more. The trends here are what you would expect, though. If you want elite HR power, get it early. If you miss on it, the longer you wait the less you’ll find.
RBI – Quick Analysis: I find it interesting how 2009 showed a good increase among RBI totals for elite starter, but a sizable decrease among RBI totals for average starters. This is most likely due to the drop off in production from players like Morneau (injury), Gonzalez (119 RBI in ’08, 100 in ’09), and Delgado and Huff dropping off the fantasy landscape. Last year, four of the 6-10 ranked first basemen tallied 115+ RBI, but in 2009 none did, and two fell under 100. This is probably an aberration and not a new trend, however, as the 2007 and 2008 RBI breakdown seems more indicative of the position.
Stolen Bases – Quick Analysis: Good luck finding anything of much value here, although if you recall what happened when we highlighted stolen bases for catchers, you’ll notice a similar trend. In case you didn’t read it, this is what I said:
It is interesting to note, however, that the first replacements have averaged more steals than the average starters each of the last three seasons, especially in 2009. If you consider the position as a whole, this makes sense. Remember that the average HR among the elite starters and average starters was relatively even, but what makes the elite starters better than the average starters is their ability to contribute in multiple categories. This means our average starters are usually going to be moderately talented sluggers without a complete game. What kind of players are consistently falling in this average starter group? Bengie Molina, Kelly Shoppach, A.J. Pierzynski, and Chris Iannetta are just a few of the players we’ve seen here in the last few seasons. All of them (perhaps aside from Pierzynski since he hits for good AVG too) are slugging specialists without much speed. The first replacements lack this slugging ability and are thus some of the quicker, smaller catchers such as Carlos Ruiz, Jason Kendall, and Ivan Rodriguez. This analysis is almost completely useless to you, but I always like when statistical analysis truly portrays real life.
While at first base the first replacements didn’t completely average more stolen bases than the average starters, but still, the explanation holds true. Sweet.
Batting Average – Quick Analysis: Where to begin? Batting averages in 2007 appear to be the aberration in this group, as the batting average for average starters in ’07 was almost 15 points lower than either other year. This occurred mainly because Morneau and Berkman fell into this category and had down years in average. Oh, and perennial .260 hitter Adam Dunn was ranked here too. What I would take note of here is this: because of the depth at first base there are so many comparable players, some that hit for better average and some that hit for better power. They all fall in the top 8 to 10, but the specific order varies by year since they are clumped so closely. For example, just last season there were six players that had PSR Ratings in the approximate 8 to 10 range. This close grouping explains the great yearly variation.
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