Archive | 2009

2009 In Review: Outfield

By on December 31, 2009 | Comments { 2 }

We wrap up the year 2009 today, and not coincidentally we finish up our recap of all batters from the 2009 baseball season today as well. We’ve already finished up our look back at each infield position, and now turn our attention to the outfield. Because we’re looking at three times as many players in the outfield, we’ll just have to triple our awards! As usual though, don’t forget to check out what got us here:

Catcher
First Base
Second Base
Third Base
Shortstop
Pitchers

And since I haven’t mentioned it in a few days, all players are ranked according to PSR. For an explanation of what PSR really is, check out our PSR Rankings Explained page.

PSRPlayerRHRRBISBAVG
13.99Braun, Ryan1133211420.320
13.14Crawford, Carl96156860.305
12.81Ellsbury, Jacoby9486070.301
12.37Kemp, Matt972610134.297
10.62Bay, Jason1033611913.267
10.29Werth, Jayson98369920.268
10.07Holliday, Matt942410914.313
9.90Abreu, Bobby961510330.293
9.60Lind, Adam93351141.305
9.02Zobrist, Ben91279117.297
8.87Bourn, Michael9933661.286
8.76Upton, Justin84268620.300
8.15Choo, Shin-Soo87208621.300
7.91Suzuki, Ichiro88114626.352
7.59Ethier, Andre92311066.272
7.48Damon, Johnny107248212.282
7.40Hunter, Torii74229018.299
7.32Cuddyer, Michael9332946.276
7.09Ibanez, Raul9334934.272
6.87Dunn, Adam81381060.267
6.75Span, Denard9786823.311
6.73Cruz, Nelson75337620.260
6.45Markakis, Nick94181016.293
6.41Kubel, Jason73281031.300
6.41Granderson, Curtis91307120.249
6.36Victorino, Shane102106225.292
6.31Lee, Carlos65261025.302
5.69Pence, Hunter76257414.284
5.53Morgan, Nyjer7433942.305
5.34Davis, Rajai6534841.305
5.21Gutierrez, Franklin85187016.283
4.81Podsednik, Scott7574830.304
4.81Upton, B.J.79115542.241
4.72McLouth, Nate86207019.256
4.52Hawpe, Brad8223861.285
4.28Rivera, Juan L7225880.287
4.22Byrd, Marlon6620898.283
4.02Jones, Adam83197010.277
3.98Ross, Cody7224905.267
3.79McCutchen, Andrew74125422.286
3.61Drew, J.D.8424682.279
3.48Wells, Vernon84156617.260
3.30Ludwick, Ryan6322974.265
3.23Rios, Alexis63177124.247
3.13Coghlan, Chris849478.321
2.93Swisher, Nick8228810.246
2.85Diaz, Matt56135812.313
2.71Dye, Jermaine7827810.250
2.70Cameron, Mike7824707.250
2.60Francoeur, Jeff7215766.280
2.49Cust, Jack8825704.240
2.40DeRosa, Mark7823783.250
1.93Sizemore, Grady73186413.248
1.89DeJesus, David7413714.281
1.89Pierre, Juan5703130.308
1.84Beltran, Carlos50104811.324
1.80Cabrera, Melky66136810.274
1.76Willingham, Josh7024614.260
1.55Scott, Luke6125770.258
1.45Ramirez, Manny6219630.290
1.36Jones, Garrett45214410.293
1.09Fowler, Dexter7343427.266
1.07Smith, Seth6115554.293
1.07Murphy, David6117579.269
0.93Hairston, Scott50176411.265
0.39Headley, Chase6212649.262
0.35Teahen, Mark6912508.271
0.33Sweeney, Ryan686536.293
0.23Gonzalez, Carlos53132916.284
0.24Soriano, Alfonso6420559.241
0.16Pagan, Angel5463214.306
0.13Ordonez, Magglio549503.310
0.14Francisco, Ben58154614.257
0.10Fukudome, Kosuke7911546.259
-0.01Rowand, Aaron6115644.261
-0.14Hart, Corey64124811.260
-0.27Schumaker, Skip854351.303
-0.26Reimold, Nolan4915458.279
-0.28Raburn, Ryan4416455.291
-0.30Parra, Gerardo595605.290
-0.34Murphy, Daniel6012634.266
-0.49Rasmus, Colby7216523.251
-0.54Young, Delmon5012602.284
-0.61Winn, Randy6525116.262
-0.96Bloomquist, Willie5242924.265
-1.12Anderson, Garret5213611.268
-1.13Gardner, Brett4832326.270
-1.14Gomes, Jonny3920513.267
-1.23Borbon, Julio3042019.312
-1.47Hamilton, Josh4310548.268
-1.73Quentin, Carlos4721563.236
-2.01Hermida, Jeremy4813475.259
-2.07Tatis, Fernando428484.282
-2.12Bruce, Jay4722583.223
-2.17Hairston Jr., Jerry6210397.251
-2.31Bradley, Milton6112402.257
-2.54Sheffield, Gary4410432.276
-2.55Spilborghs, Ryan558489.241
-2.84Dukes, Elijah409604.253
-2.99Young, Chris54154211.212
-3.01Gwynn, Tony5922111.270
-3.06Church, Ryan464406.273
-3.05Taveras, Willy5611525.240
-3.26Venable, Will3812386.256
-3.32Velez, Eugenio4053111.267
-3.36Bautista, Jose5413404.235
-3.39Anderson, Josh4212425.240
-3.77Young, Delwyn407432.266
-3.84Nix, Laynce4215460.239
-4.07Matthews Jr., Gary444504.250
-4.22Ankiel, Rick5011384.231
-4.41Harris, Willie4772711.235
-4.46Lewis, Fred494208.258
-4.51Pie, Felix389291.266
-4.57Gomez, Carlos5132814.229
-4.59Stubbs, Drew2781710.267
-4.64Thames, Marcus3313360.252
-4.75Fox, Jake2311440.259
-4.75Thomas, Clete467393.240
-4.84Torres, Andres306236.270
-4.83Guillen, Carlos3611411.242
-4.85Dickerson, Chris3121511.275
-4.98Maier, Mitch423319.243
-5.04Salazar, Oscar165250.302
-5.06Moss, Brandon477411.236
-5.07Gerut, Jody409356.230
-5.09Schierholtz, Nate335293.267
-5.21Milledge, Lastings214217.279
-5.56Guillen, Jose309401.242
-5.85Brantley, Michael100114.313
-5.94Hoffpauir, Micah2810351.239
-5.94Kapler, Gabe268325.239
-6.00Snider, Travis349291.241
-6.05Kotsay, Mark164233.278
-6.04Byrnes, Eric268319.226
-6.18Chavez, Endy172139.273
-6.17Gross, Gabe316366.227
-6.24LaPorta, Matt297212.254
-6.34Patterson, Eric151116.287
-6.38Blanks, Kyle2410221.250
-6.49Hinske, Eric318251.242
-6.69Baldelli, Rocco237231.253
-6.75Fuld, Sam17122.299
-6.82Crisp, Coco3031413.228
-7.00Johnson, Reed234222.255
-7.02Balentien, Wladimir307242.234
-7.12Anderson, Brian324183.243
-7.35Catalanotto, Frank18192.278
-7.46Maybin, Cameron304131.250
-7.53Sullivan, Cory172157.250
-7.72Hall, Bill328362.201
-7.84Duncan, Chris255320.227
-8.17Crowe, Trevor221176.235
-8.21McDonald, Darnell122101.267
-8.55Romero, Alex141182.248
-8.81Michaels, Jason174161.235
-8.97Scales, Bobby153150.242
-9.01Carroll, Brett183180.234
-9.07Quinlan, Robb132141.243
-9.44Wise, DeWayne172114.225
-10.12Reed, Jeremy9090.242
-10.47Buck, Travis113101.219
-10.59Saunders, Michael13044.221
-10.63Langerhans, Ryan123100.218
-10.76Kearns, Austin203171.194
-10.86Giles, Brian182231.191
-10.93Schafer, Jordan18282.204

(use arrows to scroll)

MVPs of 2009

Ryan Braun (MIL) – Coming into 2009 there was debate surrounding whether or not to take Braun or his Cleveland counterpart, Grady Sizemore, as the first OF. I think it’s pretty clear now who the choice is. While Sizemore battled injuries in ’09, you can’t help but notice how his AVG has trended downward for the fourth straight season before settling at .248 last season. Braun, on the other hand, had his first 30/20 season, batted .320, and finished first among all OF (and fourth among all players) in R with 113. He’s up there with Hanley and Pujols as the most well-rounded players in the game.

Carl Crawford (TB) – As you may recall, 2008 was a colossal disappointment for Crawford as he posted a line of 69/.273/8/57/25 in 109 largely injury-aggravated games. For some reason though, his 2009 season took me by surprise. It shouldn’t have as he posted numbers in line with his career norms, although he topped his previous career high for SB by swiping 60 bags this season. When it was all said and done, he had his usual pesky season that bothers every fantasy owner because he outscored your entire team in SB and added what seems like 20 R. God, I hate Crawford.

Jacoby Ellsbury (BOS) – Believe it or not, he really does deserve a 2009 MVP award. He led all of baseball in SB by 10. Before you shrug that off and say, “Oh come on, what about Matt Kemp, Jason Bay, and Matt Holliday!” consider this: all of those guys were extremely valuable, and if you had them you were probably pretty psyched about it, but 70 SB?! He also posted a .301 AVG in the second-most AB by any outfielder, and when a guy hits for that good of an AVG in that many AB, it carries more weight than someone who hits, say, .313 in 581 AB (cough, Matt Holliday). Also, like we saw with Figgins, he did enough in the power categories to warrant starting him everyday… and laughing while your opponents had no answer for him.

Honorable Mentions: Matt Kemp (LAD), Jason Bay (BOS, now NYM), Jayson Werth (PHI)

Comeback Players of 2009

Curtis Granderson (DET) – Yeah, he probably doesn’t deserve a “comeback” award when his R total fell and his AVG was an abysmal .249, but he returned to 20/20 status, and even became a 30/20 guy. Back in 2008, that potential is why he was drafted so highly, so in a way he does deserve this award.

Michael Cuddyer (MIN) – Cuddyer is really a combination of comeback and breakout. His 2009 season had  acouple career bests (mainly his 32 HR), but he also had a pretty good 2006 season when he finished 102/.284/24/109/6. As you’ll recall, his ’07 and ’08 seasons weren’t quite as good when he combined for 107 R, 19 HR, and 107 RBI in 902 AB. Michael, glad to have you back.

Matt Holliday (OAK/STL) – This is kind of a two-part award. First, he rebounded from his 88 RBI in 2008 to post 109 in 2009, which is the kind of production we expect out of an elite OF. Second, he came back from a terrible start in Oakland to post a 42/.353/13/55/2 line in only 235 AB. Because I know you’re wondering (and I already did the math) over 550 AB that averages out to 98/.353/30/129/5, which is just below his career years in ’06 and ’07. Basically, if he stays in St. Louis, Matt Holliday is back.

Honorable Mentions: Nick Swisher (NYY), Marlon Byrd (TEX)… it’s a comeback/breakout combo, Juan Rivera (LAA)

Breakout Players of 2009

Adam Lind (TOR) – Lind more than tripled his HR numbers in just over twice as many AB, all while hitting a career-best .305. Plus, his OPS was .932. For comparison, Ryan Braun posted a .937 OPS in 2009. Things couldn’t have gone better for Lind last year, and given where he was drafted on average (and in many league’s he probably wasn’t drafted), he truly was one of the nicest surprises we’ve seen in a while.

Jason Kubel (MIN) -In only 51 more AB than 2008, Kubel hit 8 more HR (28) and drove in 25 more runs (103) while hitting .300 for the first time in his career. Along with teammate, Michael Cuddyer, these Twin Terrors showed baseball they don’t need Torii Hunter as Minnesota stormed back to claim the AL Central title. The next step? Don’t fade away like so many past breakouts have.

Justin Upton (ARI) – The failures of his brother, B.J., were always in the back of my mind when evaluating Justin, but entering 2009 at only 21 years of age, he still had some time before the breakout season really had to come. He started his career towards stardom though, becoming an All-Star in 2009 and ballooning both his HR and SB totals to become a true 30/30 threat.

Honorable Mentions: Shin-Soo Choo (CLE), Michael Bourn (HOU), Garrett Jones (PIT)

Most Disappointing Players of 2009

Manny Ramirez (LAD) -I can’t believe you, Manny. A 50-game suspension for substance abuse? That alone merits a Most Disappointing Player of 2009 award, but you couldn’t even hit once you got back. Just a very forgettable season. What other players had PSRs similar to yours? How about these guys: Melky Cabrera, Luke Scott, Dexter Fowler, Garrett Jones, Juan Pierre, and Seth Smith. Geez.

B.J. Upton (TB) – This is more of a career achievement (or lack thereof) award. What’s happened to this guy? He was supposed to be the next great thing, but instead can’t seem to right the ship. His AVG has fallen for three straight seasons from .300 to .241 in 2009, and while he still has the speed and athleticism to steal 40+ bases, you can’t help but wonder where that 24 HR power from ’07 went. He’s already been eclipsed by his 22-year old bother, Justin, and the end to this downward spiral seems nowhere in sight.

Grady Sizemore (CLE) -Injuries bothered Sizemore for almost all of 2009, so consider this a warning. If he doesn’t get back to that .275-level, though, there will be a point where we can no longer refer to his seasons as “disappointing” and begin calling them “normal.”

Dishonorable Mentions: Ryan Ludwick (STL), Alexis Rios (TOR/CHW), Corey Hart (MIL)

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Dec. 30: How Ballparks Affect Fantasy Baseball

By on December 30, 2009 | Comments { 0 }

In light of Jason Bay’s signing in New York, I decided to look around the web to see what other people thought about how ballparks affect fantasy players. We’ll take a look in the coming days at whether or not Citi Field deserves its status as a hitter’s nightmare, but for now here is what’s out there:

  • Fantasy Baseball 365 writes about how Jason Bay is entering a hitter’s nightmare.
  • Fred Zinkie over at Fantasybaseball.com gives you his perspective on how to evaluate off-season moves.
  • In case you want to break it down yourself (but don’t feel you need to as we’ll take care of that before draft day) here’s a list of 2009 MLB Park Factors courtesy of ESPN.com.
  • This article is from ESPNs Brendan Roberts, and although it’s from 2008, it offers a handy explanation of MLB Park Factors and demonstrates how a park’s behavior can change while people’s perceptions of it don’t. Good stuff.
  • Not really ballpark related, but I always like reading people’s opinions of baseball metrics. Take a look here.

Feel free to leave links you like in the comments section. Happy web hunting.

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2009 In Review: Third Base

By on December 30, 2009 | Comments { 3 }

As it turns out, I was on the road all day yesterday picking up my car which had broken down in New Jersey last week. Merry Christmas to me. Unfortunately this prevented me from taking a look back at third base as I had planned, but don’t fret! Today you get another double-dose of 2009 recaps with both third base and outfield, but before we move on, let’s not forget how get got here:

Catcher
First Base
Second Base
Shortstop
Outfield
Pitchers

What a crazy year we saw at third base. The consensus preseason top two (Alex Rodriguez and David Wright) barely clung onto top 10 status, and three of the top five could legitimately have their success referred to as a nice surprise. Don’t take my word for it. Have a look for yourself.

PSRPlayerRHRRBISBAVG
13.57Reynolds, Mark984410224.260
11.05Longoria, Evan100331139.281
11.01Cabrera, Miguel96341036.324
10.94Zimmerman, Ryan112331072.293
10.04Figgins, Chone11455542.298
9.74Youkilis, Kevin9927947.305
9.33Rodriguez, Alex783010014.286
8.81Sandoval, Pablo7925905.330
8.10Wright, David88107227.307
6.68Young, Michael7622688.322
4.32Cantu, Jorge67161003.289
4.02Blake, Casey8418793.280
3.91Kennedy, Adam65116320.289
3.21Rolen, Scott7611675.305
2.74DeRosa, Mark7823783.250
2.50Jones, Chipper8018714.264
1.99Inge, Brandon7127842.230
1.87Lowell, Mike5417752.290
1.86Ramirez, Aramis4615652.317
1.74Stewart, Ian7425707.228
1.70McGehee, Casey5816660.301
0.59Beckham, Gordon5814637.270
0.55Prado, Martin6411481.307
0.47Kouzmanoff, Kevin5018881.255
0.45Headley, Chase6212649.262
0.40Teahen, Mark6912508.271
0.26Uribe, Juan5016553.289
0.26Feliz, Pedro6212820.266
-0.68LaRoche, Andy6412643.258
-0.84Peralta, Jhonny5711830.254
-1.20Beltre, Adrian5484413.265
-1.65Bonifacio, Emilio7212721.252
-2.38Counsell, Craig614393.285
-2.47Hairston Jr., Jerry6210397.251
-3.67Mora, Melvin448483.260
-3.83Bautista, Jose5413404.235
-4.43Carroll, Jamey532264.276
-5.00Blum, Geoff3510490.249
-5.05Crede, Joe4215480.225
-5.20Harris, Brendan446370.261
-5.41Fox, Jake2311440.259
-5.40Fontenot, Mike389434.236
-5.88Baker, Jeff274241.288
-6.07Keppinger, Jeff367310.259
-6.12Encarnacion, Edwin3513392.225
-6.42Atkins, Garrett379480.226
-7.04Helms, Wes183331.271
-7.52Pena, Ramiro171104.287
-8.05Gordon, Alex286225.232
-8.16Ojeda, Augie381163.246
-8.15Crosby, Bobby356292.223
-8.38Fields, Josh297302.222
-8.47Vizquel, Omar171144.266
-8.74Tolbert, Matt282196.232
-8.80Hall, Bill328362.201
-9.10Dobbs, Greg155201.247
-9.38Thurston, Joe271254.225
-9.64Gamel, Mat115201.242
-10.15Loretta, Mark190251.233
-10.40Hannahan, Jack274191.213
-10.70Rosales, Adam234191.213

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MVP of 2009

Mark Reynolds (ARI) – It pains me to name a .260 hitter the position’s MVP, but the numbers don’t lie; Reynolds muscled 10 more HR than anyone else at the position, finished third in SB, fourth in RBI, and fifth in R. No other player at third base finished top five in more than three of those categories, so despite the shortcomings in the AVG department, he was still one of the most well-rounded players fielding the hot corner in 2009.

Honorable Mention: Evan Longoria (TB)

Comeback Player of 2009

Chone Figgins (LAA) – Remember how disappointing Figgins was in 2008? He only managed 453 AB, struggled to post a .276 AVG, and while you don’t draft him for his power numbers, he put up only 1 HR and 22 RBI. Twenty. Two. Needless to say, seasons like he had in 2009 are what made him one of the most exciting players to watch (and own) since he broke out in 2004. In fact, last year he had his best season as a professional, setting career marks in plate appearances (729), runs (114), doubles (30), walks (101), and OBP (.395). To illustrate how much he stepped up his game, consider that his previous career high in walks was only 65, and he also added five HR and 54 RBI to get back to that “respectable” threshold where he no longer kills you in power categories. As long as he’s scoring runs and stealing bases though, most people won’t care how many runs he drives in.

Honorable Mention: Adam Kennedy (OAK)

Breakout Player of 2009

Ryan Zimmerman (WAS) – Let me preface this selection by saying this: Evan Longoria did not break out in 2009. He did that in 2008. If you look at his per-game averages, expected BABIP, HR/FB%, WAR/game, and many other stats, you’ll see he had a nearly identical season to the year before, the only difference being he played 35 more games in ’09. Zimmerman, on the other hand, finally became a fantasy star. The addition of Adam Dunn to the lineup undoubtedly helped, but Dunn can’t take all the credit. Zimmerman saw a lower percentage of strikes this season (60.5%) than any other year in his career, but an improved eye yielded career highs in walks (72) and AVG (.292). At only 25 years old, this is the first of many more 30/100 seasons to come.

Honorable Mention: Pablo Sandoval

Most Disappointing Player of 2009

David Wright (NYM) – Entering 2009, Wright had all the indicators of a monster season. His HR totals had increased every year for four straight years, his lowest average in a full season was .302, he averaged 114 runs in ’07 and ’08, and he had never finished with fewer than 102 RBI. In short, he was as sure a bet as there was, but after posting only 10 HR and 72 RBI in the Mets’ first season at Citi Field, there are obviously numerous questions surrounding his underwhelming performance. Of all those questions, one is more pressing than all the rest: Why? Most blame it on Citi Field, but is that really the answer. In the coming days, we’ll try to answer that question by looking into whether or not Citi Field really is where homeruns go to die. While that answer is as of now unknown, one thing is for sure. If Wright slips to the end of the first round, get him.

Dishonorable Mention: Chipper Jones

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The Curious Case of Nick Markakis

By on December 30, 2009 | Comments { 0 }

Last offseason, the Baltimore Orioles signed Nick Markakis, who was coming off a career year, to a six year, $66 million contract. They thought they were locking up a perennial all-star, but Markakis did not live up to expectations in 2009 as he regressed back to his rookie season rather than continue with his upward trend over the past two seasons.

Markakis posted a 6.45 position scarcity rating (PSR) in 2009, which ranked 87th overall. That ranking pegs him as a late ninth round pick, but most owners drafted him somewhere between rounds three and five. Before we delve into why 2009 was such a down year, let’s take a look at his career stats so far:

YearABRHRRBISBBAOBPOPS
20064917216622.291.351.799
2007637972311218.300.362.848
2008595106208710.306.406.897
200964294181016.293.347.801

The most telling stat here is on-base percentage, which rose from .351 to .406 from 2006-2008, but then dipped back down to a career-low .347 in 2009. In 2008, Markakis brought a patient approach to the plate and came away with a near-.900 OPS and 99 walks—great in both fantasy and reality. In 2009, he strayed away from his approach that pegged him as a patient, power-hitting corner outfielder and returned to his more pedestrian and less attractive rookie form.

To further illustrate this point I took a look at his plate discipline statistics and found that in 2009 Markakis swung at more pitches outside of the strike zone and hit less line drives—all of which resulted in a lower BABIP—and made him no better than Jason Kubel (6.41 PSR) or Curtis Granderson (6.41 PSR). Here are the stats so you can see for yourself:

(Note: O-Swing corresponds to swings at pitches outside of the strike zone and Z-Swing corresponds to swings at pitches inside the strike zone.)

YearO-Swing%Z-Swing%BB%BABIPLD%FB%HR/FB%
200623.8%65.9%8.1%.31519.6%29.2%13.1%
200723.4%64.1%8.7%.33517.7%37.4%11.6%
200818.0%64.2%14.3%.35121.1%32.9%12.6%
200923.0%60.9%8.0%.32316.6%40.6%8.0%

Markakis posted a career year in 2008 thanks to a great improvement in his batting eye. He swung at a career-low 18 percent of pitches outside the strike zone, which led to a career-high 14.3 percent walk rate, which ranked 17th in the league. Also by swinging at more pitches in the zone, Markakis made better contact thereby increasing his BABIP to .351, which was ninth-highest in the majors.

Fast forward to 2009 and two things that jump out at me are the increase in fly ball percentage and a sudden dip in HR/FB percentage. You would think that with more fly balls come more home runs, but in Markakis’ case only eight percent of his fly balls turned into home runs when his previous career-low was 11.6 percent.

It’s fair to assume that Markakis’ 2009 HR/FB rate is an aberration and that he will return at least close to an 11 percent rate, if not higher, so I did some math. In 2009 Markakis hit 225 fly balls and if 11.6 percent of them left the yard he would have hit 26, not 18, home runs. Not bad right?

So now it’s time for the million dollar question—what can we expect in 2010?

If 2009 is any indication of what direction Markakis is headed in then it’s not going to be pretty, but lucky for us he should have a nice bounce-back season  if he can fix some key issues that plagued him last season. For some reason Markakis’ eye wasn’t as sharp last season as it was previously in his career and if he can swing at more pitches in the strike zone, like he has done in the past, he will see an increase in line drives and a better BABIP.

Also we shouldn’t expect a walk rate of 14 percent or a BABIP or .351, but he should improve on his ridiculously low HR/FB rate which would increase his power output and thus make him a more valuable fantasy corner outfielder.

At 26 years old, Markakis is the cornerstone in a very young Orioles lineup, but with Brian Roberts, Adam Jones, Noland Reimold, Matt Wieters and new addition Garrett Atkins as protection we should expect numbers in the ballpark of .300 BA—95 R—23 HR—100 RBI—8 SB.

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Deviation From Career Norms: First Base

By on December 29, 2009 | Comments { 1 }

Yesterday I looked at the catcher position and identified players whose past year deviated from their career averages.  Today I will do the same for first basemen and determine if last year’s stats are the start of a new trend or merely an anomaly.

Kendry Morales

While Kendry Morales seemed to come out of nowhere last year, he was actually a member of the Angels for parts of the ‘06, ‘07, and ‘08 seasons.  In those 3 seasons he averaged 126 AB’s, 13 R, 4 HR, 15 RBI, and a .249 AVG.  With these paltry numbers it was no wonder Morales had a hard time cracking the lineup.

To be fair, Morales was behind Mark Teixeira for half of the ’08 season.  But in 2006, Morales received the most AB’s of any Angels 1B (196) and could not muster more than a .230 AVG with 5 HR and 21 RBI.  And in 2007, Morales gave way to Casey Kotchman, a player known more for his glove than his bat.

That brings us to 2009.  With Teixeira and Kotchman both gone, the keys to first base were once again given to Morales.  But this time he took advantage.  Last year Morales batted .306 with 34 HR and 108 RBI while scoring 86 R.  Certainly a pleasant surprise for those fortunate enough to take a chance on him last year.  But will he do it again next year?  Absolutely.  We know Morales can hit for average because his career minor league AVG is .332.  However, he did not hit for much power in the minors, registering only 1 HR every 22.18 AB’s.  He was even worse in the majors, registering 1 HR every 31.41 AB’s.

All changed last year due to an improvement in his plate discipline.  Morales walked once every 12.3 AB’s last year compared to once every 13.96 AB’s from 2006-2008.  He also only swung at only 46% of pitches thrown to him.  His previous low was 48.3%.  Morales also saw more pitches per plate appearance.  He saw 4.01 pitches per plate appearance, besting his previous high of 3.64.  With a firmer grasp of the strike zone, Morales was better able to look for his pitch and use his natural hitting ability to drive the ball.  An improved batting eye bodes well for Morales in 2010 to put up numbers similar to the ones he put up in 2009.

It also helps that nobody will be threatening him for playing time.

Lance Berkman

Recently, a fellow writer here at Baseball Professor pegged Lance Berkman as the most disappointing 1B of 2009.  He finished the year with 73 R, 25 HR, and 80 RBI to go along with a .274 AVG.  Not good at all for someone who averaged 98 R, 32 HR, and 105 RBI and batted .303 during the 2000s.  Was last year just a blip in his stellar career or the beginning of the end for Lance Berkman?

To answer this question we must take a closer look at Berkman’s 2009 statistics. In March, Berkman battled bicep tendonitis.  It is no surprise then why Berkman posted a line of 10/5/10/.162/0 in the month of April.  Excluding that month, he posted a line of 63/20/70/.295/7.  He put up those numbers in only 386 AB’s as he battled left wrist soreness, a strained left calf muscle, and back spasms.  Although these injuries are a concern, Berkman has showed that he can be productive while battling various ailments.

After looking at Berkman’s line again, it doesn’t look so bad considering he only had 460 AB’s.  In fact, his AB/HR ratio were not all that different last year (18.4) than from 2007-2008 (17.7).  It is also encouraging that Berkman put up these numbers despite posting a BABIP that was .24 less than his career average (.300 vs. .324).  Although Berkman is getting up there in age (he’ll be 34 by opening day), he still has at least one more year before we can count him out as a perennial 30 HR 100 RBI threat.  As a result he should become a nice value target on draft day and, with a full season’s worth of AB’s, should revert back closer to his career norms.  If you miss out on Pujols, Fielder, Cabrera, Howard, or Teixeira then don’t be afraid to draft Berkman.

Russell Branyan

Raise your hand if you had Russell Branyan in your 30 HR pool.  Didn’t think so.  One of the biggest surprises at the first base position, Branyan batted .251 with 31 HR, 76 RBI, and 64 R which were all career highs.  Not coincidently, he had the most at bats of his career with 431.  His previous high in at bats was 378 way back in 2002.

Could it be that simple, that all Branyan needed was more playing time in order to become a viable fantasy source of power?  At first glance it seems like this may be the case.  The difference between his actual BABIP (.307) and his expected BABIP (.295) was not all that great last year indicating that his numbers were indicative of his performance and not based on luck.  Also we know his power is for real considering that his AB/HR ratio last year was right in line with his career average (13.9 vs. 14.8).  These numbers seem to indicate that Branyan will be able to duplicate his ‘09 numbers if given the at bats.

However, there is cause for concern.  Here is a breakdown of Branyan’s month by month AVG totals: .333, .317, .265, .159, .206.  Note, he missed all of September with a herniated disk.  Not surprisingly, his career batting average is .234.  Maybe his former employers were onto something by not giving him 400+ AB’s.  With batting averages that low coupled with his putrid career batting average, Branyan will surely not be given as many at bats next year as he was given with the Mariners last year.  Last year was an aberration for Branyan.  He was thrust into a starting role because the Mariners were desperate for some power in the lineup.  Fantasy owners don’t need to be that desperate with so much power available at first base.

No matter where Branyan signs next year, his 2010 numbers will be closer to his career averages than his 2009 numbers.  Whether it be the injuries that have plagued him throughout his career or the fact that he will be forced into a platoon role, Branyan simply won’t accumulate enough at bats to be fantasy worthy.  Then again do you really want 30 HR if you have to take on a batting average south of .250?

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Where Will Jason Bay Land?

By on December 28, 2009 | Comments { 0 }

The market is still wide open for Jason Bay, who most analysts agree is one of the top three free agents available this offseason. Surprisingly, he has not been highly sought after, and has only received two known offers from the Red Sox and the Mets. Both offers are for four years and between $60MM and $65MM.

He rejected the Sox offer early in hopes of receiving a fifth year, but that has not happened yet and now he is leaving the Mets in limbo by not making a decision on their offer. It was thought that the Mariners would be a good fit, but they have since acquired Milton Bradley from the Cubs and do not appear to be in the running anymore. The Angels have yet to focus on Bay, but have not ruled him out so they could be another potential suitor down the road. The Giants have shown interest earlier in the month as well, but as they near a deal with Mark DeRosa (who can be placed in left field if necessary) it seems less likely, but not impossible, that they land Bay.

In summary, to me there are four potential teams for Bay to play for next year: the Mets, Red Sox, Angels, and Giants. His fantasy impact next season hinges on his decision, and I offer my predictions for each of the four teams.

Boston Red Sox: Clearly, Jason Bay has shown that he can handle the pressure cooker that comes with being a member of the Red Sox. In his year and a half in Boston, Bay clubbed 45 home runs and drove in 156 runs as the replacement for Manny Ramirez. It does not seem likely that the Red Sox will re-sign him given the agreement they reached with Mike Cameron, but he is still a free agent and his market is very thin. Being the dead pull hitter that he is, the Green Monster was very inviting for Bay, and I predict another 30 plus home run, 100 plus RBI season with Boston on the off chance that he returns.

New York Mets: It is becoming more and more clear every day that Bay does not want to play for the Mets. They have offered him a contract very similar to that of Boston’s, and he is in no hurry to accept it. Because of his success in Boston, the pressure of playing in New York should not get to him, so his numbers will not drop for that reason. However, the problem is home run eating Citi Field. No Met hit more than 12 home runs last year, and obviously that is due in large part to injuries of Carlos Delgado, Carlos Beltran, and Jose Reyes. Those numbers still must raise a red flag for Bay, and I see a drop in power next  year if he ends up a Met. He will not have a 30-100 season, hitting around 25 homers and driving in around 95. Still a solid year especially if the rest of the lineup is healthy.

Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim: The Angels have lost Chone Figgins to the Mariners, and do not plan on re-signing Vladimir Guerrero, so expect the offense to be a little less productive next season. Erick Aybar or Maicer Izturis could be placed leadoff and Bobby Abreu is back, but I still would not count on Bay having as productive a year as 2009 with those guys setting the table. I predict the power will still be there at 30 plus homers, but his RBI total will dip under 100.

San Francisco Giants: Bay has some experience at AT&T Park, logging 52 plate appearances. He has done well there, hitting .318 with a two homers and nine batted in in nine games. As mentioned above, I do not see the Giants landing Bay, but he has spent the majority of his career in the National League, and on the chance that the Giants do go after him, I expect him to have success. I predict a 30-100 season if he goes to San Francisco.

This analysis means that Bay would be best suited to either return to Boston, or head to the Giants if he wants to have another year like 2009.

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2009 In Review: Shortstop

By on December 28, 2009 | Comments { 1 }

Recapping two positions in one day? I must be a madman! No, well maybe, but I’m just really excited about the upcoming baseball season. Only four months away!

We’ve already taken a look back at three positions, and we still have three ahead, meaning our look at how shortstop shook out in 2009 marks the halfway point of our seven positions in seven days. If you’d like (and we hope you would) take a look back at what we’ve already done:

Catcher
First Base
Second Base
Third Base
Outfield
Pitchers

We saw lots of variety in the top 5 in ’09 including a fantasy superstar (Ramirez), a veteran that defies Father Time (Jeter), an emerging slugger (Tulowitzki), a surprise performer (Bartlett), and an all-world fielder (Rollins). Was there any value to be had after those guys? Sure, but not much.

PSRPlayerRHRRBISBAVG
15.50Ramirez, Hanley1012410727.342
12.36Jeter, Derek107186630.334
12.21Tulowitzki, Troy101329220.297
9.70Bartlett, Jason90146630.320
8.57Rollins, Jimmy100217731.250
5.93Tejada, Miguel8414875.313
4.90Cabrera, Asdrubal8166817.308
4.81Escobar, Yunel8914765.299
4.80Scutaro, Marco100126014.282
4.09Cabrera, Orlando8397713.284
3.55Theriot, Ryan8175421.284
3.54Ramirez, Alexei71156814.277
3.44Izturis, Maicer7486513.300
3.03Aybar, Erick7055814.312
2.98Andrus, Elvis7264033.267
1.84Furcal, Rafael9294712.269
0.39Drew, Stephen7112655.261
0.25Uribe, Juan5016553.289
-0.25Guzman, Cristian746524.282
-0.74Ryan, Brendan5533714.292
-0.82Peralta, Jhonny5711830.254
-1.07Bloomquist, Willie5242924.265
-1.07Bloomquist, Willie5242924.265
-1.22Cabrera, Everth5923125.255
-1.62Bonifacio, Emilio7212721.252
-2.34Counsell, Craig614393.285
-2.43Hairston Jr., Jerry6210397.251
-3.59Renteria, Edgar505487.250
-4.17Punto, Nick5613816.228
-4.31Lugo, Julio403219.280
-4.52Valbuena, Luis5210312.250
-4.75Hardy, J.J.5311470.229
-4.99Izturis, Cesar3423013.256
-5.02Betancourt, Yuniesky406493.245
-5.12Harris, Brendan446370.261
-5.28Hernandez, Anderson393377.252
-5.43Pennington, Cliff274217.279
-5.51Wilson, Jack375393.254
-5.57Santiago, Ramon297351.267
-5.59Gonzalez, Alex428412.238
-5.71Everett, Adam433445.238
-6.09Reyes, Jose1821511.279
-6.18Escobar, Alcides201114.304
-6.75Gonzalez, Alberto311331.265
-7.10Green, Nick356351.236
-7.23Cedeno, Ronny3210385.209
-7.26Cora, Alex311188.251
-8.03Ojeda, Augie381163.246
-8.34Vizquel, Omar171144.266
-10.05Andino, Robert312103.222
-10.07Janish, Paul361162.215
-10.56Greene, Khalil216242.200
-10.69Vazquez, Ramon171161.230
-10.85Wilson, Josh193131.222
-11.98Rodriguez, Luis182161.203

(use arrows to scroll)

MVP of 2009

Hanley Ramirez (FLA) – Hanley Ramirez is to shortstops what Denzel Washington is to movie detectives. They’re so good at what they do that no one else even compares. Ever since his move to third in the order, Ramirez has added the ability to drive in runs to what was already a fantasy owners’ dream. Barring injury, he will be a top 2 fantasy draft pick for a long, long time.

Honorable Mention: Derek Jeter (NYY)

Comeback Player of 2009

Troy Tulowitzki (COL) – I wasn’t a believer. I should have been. Before last season I seriously debated who I wanted heading into 2009: Tulowitzki or Stephen Drew. Honestly, at the time it was a legitimate question. Tulo was coming off a terrible, injury-plagued season and something about the whole 2007 Rockies team seemed like they had peaked. Plus Drew had a .502 SLG% in 2008 and seemed to be trending up. Wrong and wrong. Tulowitzki was Tulo-jit-2-quit (I saw that somewhere, but for the life of me I can’t remember where) and had the breakout year we all hoped we’d see sooner or later.

Honorable Mention: Jimmy Rollins (PHI)

Breakout Player of 2009

Jason Bartlett (TB) – Even after raking for a few months, many people still regarded his success as a prolonged hot streak. He had 11 HR in 1702 career AB before hitting 14 in 2009 (which is both the year and the number of AB it should have taken for him to hit 14 HR). He had a career high .393 SLG% entering last season and proceeded to slug .490. Nothing about 2009 made sense people lucky enough to own Bartlett (although it probably made less sense to those who didn’t), so advice for 2010 is to be cautiously optimistic.

Honorable Mention: Asdrubal Cabrera (CLE)

Most Disappointing Player of 2009

Stephen Drew (ARI) – The younger brother of Red Sox OF, J.D. Drew, and former 15th overall draft pick in 2004, expectations for Stephen Drew were understandably high. As it turns out, he wasn’t ready to break out as he parlayed a promising 2008 into a disappointing 2009 to the tune of 71/.261/12/65/5. If there is a positive to be found, it’s that he did increase his BB rate, but that was about it. Seriously. Check it out.

Dishonorable Mention: Alexei Ramirez (CHW)

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