2013 Blind Resume: Relief Pitcher

Note: I apologize for the delay in publishing this final blind resume. There have been a lot of posts here on Baseball Professor over the last couple of days and this article got lost in trying to publish all of them. But better late than never and here is the final blind resume!

The other day I looked at two starting pitchers who had very similar numbers. Today I move to the bullpen and take on two relief pitchers with very comparable stats. This is also the final installment of these blind resumes that I’ve posted every weekday since last week. For the last time, see if you can guess the identities of the players before they are revealed later in the article.

RP1

(Stats are as of Friday, June 14; ADPs are from Mock Draft Central; % Owned are from Yahoo!)

It’s a little harder to find closers that have similar stats because there are only thirty players to choose from, but both these pitchers are having very comparable seasons. Player B has had a slightly better season so far with the edge in most stats. He has one more save and a better ERA and WHIP on the season. But not to be outdone, Player A has been a strikeout monster and is whiffing a crazy 12.58 batters per nine innings.

Not only was he the top drafted closer, but Player A was taken as early as the third round in drafts this year, which is crazy high for relief pitcher. Even though he hasn’t been as dominant as he usually is, Craig Kimbrel has still been lights out this year and is on pace for another great season. Player B, on the other hand, wasn’t even the closer to begin the season and was basically unheard of in drafts this year. However, he has dominated since stepping into the ninth inning, and Edward Mujica has been one of the best closers of the season so far.

Breaking Down Player A

One of the most polarizing closer in the game since winning rookie of the year in 2011, Kimbrel has been the favorite closer to own among fantasy owners because of his strikeouts. He owns a ridiculous 15.45 K/9 over his career (317 K over 184.2 innings), and last year he became the first pitcher in history to strikeout over half of the batters he faced. So far this year Kimbrel has posted a 1.85 ERA and 12.58 K/9, and when that’s considered a “down year” you know you are looking at one of the best pitchers in the game today.

While Kimbrel has still been dominant, his “down” numbers can easily be explained. Earlier in the season he had a rough stretch over two weeks. Between April 24 and May 7 of this year, Kimbrel blew three saves with a 9.67 ERA and 1.93 WHIP. Maybe he was dealing with a minor injury or a personal issue that threw off his game, but aside from that rough stretch he has been as dominant as usual. Outside of those two weeks he has yet to allow a run and his WHIP is a sparkling 0.76.

Even though Kimbrel is posting his “worst” K/9 of his career, that “worst” strikeout rate is still at an elite level. While batters are putting more balls in play and swinging and missing less than ever before, I’m not concerned. Even though batters are whiffing “less” they are still missing his pitches way more than the league average. And even though hitters are putting more balls in play, Kimbrel’s two pitches are so nasty that batters still have a hard time making solid contact. Whether he strikes out half the batter he faces like he did last year, or strikes out “only” a third of hitters, he is still a rock solid pitcher and is arguably the most dominant closer in the game today.

Breaking Down Player B

Mujica doesn’t an impressive track record and has been one of the biggest surprises of the year. He didn’t even record his first save until April 18, and since then no one in baseball has recorded more saves. He is a perfect 19-for-19 in save opportunities this year and has dominated to the tune of a 1.82 ERA and 0.64 WHIP. His K/BB ratio is a ridiculous 27.00 due to the fact that he has only walked one batter all year. Pretty impressive for a guy who was virtually unheard of on draft day!

The main reason Mujica has been so good this year has been his splitter. It has always been a dominated pitch, but he never made it his go-to-pitch until this year. He is now throwing his splitter 61% of the time, up from 45% last year and 38% the year before. So far this year that pitch has resulted in a swing and miss one out of every three times it is swung at, and batters have only managed to hit .137 off of it in 2013. Mujica’s splitter is so good that it rates as 10.0 runs above average, which is the best in baseball. No pitcher in baseball right now can throw a better splitter than Mujica, and this year he has finally taken advantage of that.

If Mujica continues to throw his “wonder pitch” as often as he is doing now, batters won’t stand a chance. Not only is it nearly impossible to hit, but Mujica has also demonstrated pin point control with it as well. This year he is hitting the strike zone with his splitter a crazy 80% of the time, which has been the reason he has allowed only one walk all year. The Cardinals have generated more save opportunities than all but two teams this year, and Mujica will continue to get plenty of chances. He has shown this year that he can dominate, and while some may not rank him this high, he is a top-5 closer in my book.

Bonus Resume

RP2

 (Stats are as of Friday, June 14; ADPs are from Mock Draft Central; % Owned are from Yahoo!)

Because this is the final resume, there is no “tune in tomorrow to get the answer to the bonus resume.” Instead you will just have to click on the following links to discover the identities of these two closers: Player A & Player B.

Other day’s answer:

Player A: C.C. Sabathia

Player B: Andy Pettitte

I hope you’ve enjoyed reading these blind resumes as much as I’ve enjoyed writing them for you! Which one was your favorite? Were you surprised by any of the comparisons? Let me know what you thought by leaving a comment or sending me an e-mail at [email protected]. In case you missed any of the other posts, here are some quick links to all ten blind resumes:

C

1B

2B

3B

SS

OF1

OF2

SP1

SP2

RP

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Daily FanDuel Picks: June 18, 2013

Patrick Corbin did well yesterday — 8 IP, 7 K, 2 ER — but that wasn’t enough to pick up a win against the Marlins. Mike Trout scored 3.50 points to lead all of my batters. It wasn’t a banner day for “hectorrondon.”

Today I jump back into it with a late-game 50/50 entry. As usual, please leave your rosters or comments below, and it’s VERY IMPORTANT that you take our 30-second Week 12 survey. Fantasy livelihoods are hanging in the balance!

Take our Week 12 Fantasy Survey!

Possible Postponements: LAD@NYY, WAS@PHI, TB@BOS

Season Results

Wagered: $660 | Profit: -$7.50 | ROI: -1.1% | Avg. Points: 32.93

june 18

Contest Settings

  • Salary Cap: $35K
  • Buy-in: $10
  • Teams: 20-team 50/50 contest (pays top 10)
  • Start Time: 7:05 pm EST
  • Player universe: Late games
  • Pitcher Scoring: W = 4 pts, IP = 1 pt, K = 1 pt, ER = -1 pt
  • Hitter Scoring: TB = 1 pt, R = 1 pt, RBI = 1 pt, SB = 2 pts, BB = 1 pt, HBP = 1 pt, Out = -0.25 pt

Adam Wainwright ($10,000) — home vs. CHC (Jeff Samardzija)

Wainwright has been the best pitcher in baseball this year. Yes, Yu Darvish has twice as many strikeouts (127) as hits allowed (61), but no one has been as consistently impressive as Wainwright, the Master of Control. Today he takes on the Cubs at home. Wainwright is currently riding a five-start winning streak and hasn’t scored fewer than 14 points during that streak. In fact, since getting shelled by the Brewers on May 4, Wainwright has posted the following point totals: 20, 11, 16.33, 14, 22, 16, 17. He’s worth every penny. I considered Darvish for $100 less at home against the Athletics but still went with Wainwright. There might be better bargain matchups out there who could provide better value in terms of points per dollar – Mat Latos vs. PIT ($7,900), Matt Cain vs. SD ($7,700) — but I’ll go with the sure thing. Now, it’s time to find some bargain hitters.

Miguel Montero ($2,300) — home vs. MIA (Nathan Eovaldi)

Montero had another two-hit game yesterday, his fourth multi-hit effort in his last nine, and he’s actually been pretty good in June. He’s only scored four runs and tallied six RBI this month, but he’s slashing .315/.377/.407. At this money that’s pretty solid.

Eric Hosmer ($3,200) — road vs. CLE (Ubaldo Jimenez)

I’ve been tough on Jimenez this year, bashing him at just about every turn. He hasn’t been as bad as we’ve seen in recent years, but he’s still pretty bad. Hosmer deserves to be bashed a little himself, but in this matchup it’s been the disappointing first baseman who’s come out on top. In his career against Jimenez, Hosmer is 5-for-11 (.455) with two homers, three walks, and two strikeouts. Hosmer is also batting .302 in June.

Nick Franklin ($2,800) — road vs. LAA (Joe Blanton)

Start everyone you can against Blanton! Franklin is a highly regarded hitting prospect, and he’s been hitting right out of the gate to start his MLB career. In 20 games, he’s posted a .904 OPS and nine walks to 11 strikeouts.

Nolan Arenado ($2,800) — road vs. TOR (Esmil Rogers)

Arenado has hit safely in 11 of 12 games, collecting 20 hits over that span. Prior to the streak, his OPS was .635. Now it’s .748.

Alcides Escobar ($2,200) — road vs. CLE (Ubaldo Jimenez)

I really wanted to go with Jimmy Rollins here against Ross Detwiler, but that game looks like it’ll be rained out. Instead, I’m going with the cheap-as-possible Escobar, who has hit safely in seven of eight games. Escobar is just 2-for-16 (.125) against Jimenez, but he’s put the ball in play in 15 of those 16 at-bats, meaning he has a .067 BABIP. Remember, there’s always more to batter-versus-pitcher stats than meets the eye. The batting average is less important than the strikeout-to-walk ratio and the number of extra base hits.

Mike Trout ($4,800) — home vs. SEA (Jeremy Bonderman)

Little explanation needed here. Trout is the fifth-ranked player in fantasy according to Yahoo!, and he’s a run-scoring, double-smacking, base-stealing monster.

Jay Bruce ($3,900) — home vs. PIT (Charlie Morton)

In his career against Morton, Bruce is 6-for-17 (.353) with two homers, two doubles, a triple, a stolen base, and just three strikeouts. He owns Morton. Bruce has also owned the past week, going 12-for-21 (.571) with three homers and three doubles in his past seven games.

Mike Morse ($2,900) — road vs. LAA (Joe Blanton)

Since returning to the Mariners’ lineup, Morse has been so-so (.692 OPS in nine games). If he breaks out against anyone, it’ll be Blanton. The good news is that Morse’s last four games (six hits, two strikeouts) have been much better than his first five back from injury (two hits, seven strikeouts). He and Blanton also have experience against each other from their time in the NL East. The jury is still out on who got the better of their prior matchups — 4-for-14 (.286) with a homer and four strikeouts — so maybe today’s game will help push public opinion one way or the other. If you’re looking for a risky value pick here, look at Ben Revere against Ross Detwiler, though that game will likely be rained out.

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Daily FanDuel Picks: June 17, 2013

I took the day off yesterday, so allow me a few words to recap my performance in June 15th’s contest:

BRYAN WINS AGAIN!!!

With 49.75 points and a third-place finish, it certainly wasn’t a record-breaking performance packed with examples of how I’m just so much better than everyone else — my ROI is only a hair in the black — but it did continue a recent streak of success. Over the last 12 contests stretching back to June 2, my ROI is 20.0% thanks to an 8-4 record and an average of 39.14 points.

Yeah, you should be listening to me. (I also want to listen to you, so leave your comments below!)

Also, Adam Nodiff just posted his Week 11 survey results/analysis. Give it a look, and take the Week 12 Fantasy Survey!

Possible Postponements: CHC@STL

Season Results

Wagered: $650 | Profit: $2.50 | ROI: 0.4% | Avg. Points: 33.08

june 17

Contest Settings

  • Salary Cap: $35K
  • Buy-in: $10
  • Teams: 20-team 50/50 contest (pays top 10)
  • Start Time: 7:05 pm EST
  • Player universe: All games
  • Pitcher Scoring: W = 4 pts, IP = 1 pt, K = 1 pt, ER = -1 pt
  • Hitter Scoring: TB = 1 pt, R = 1 pt, RBI = 1 pt, SB = 2 pts, BB = 1 pt, HBP = 1 pt, Out = -0.25 pt

Patrick Corbin ($7,300) — home vs. MIA (Jacob Turner)

The best pick today is Shelby Miller at home against the Cubs, but there’s an 80% chance of rain in St. Louis today so Miller and all Cardinals batters are on my avoid list. Of the remaining options, Max Scherzer offers a high-priced, high-strikeout option, but I’m going with the moderately-priced Corbin at home against the not-as-bad-as-you-think-but-still-pretty-damn-terrible Marlins.

Miguel Montero ($2,300) — home vs. MIA (Jacob Turner)

What, you were expecting some sort of hard-hitting analysis?

Prince Fielder ($4,000) — home vs. BAL (Jake Arrieta)

Fielder has been in a pretty significant power slump, but he has six two-hit games in his last 10 and has three doubles in his last three and hasn’t struck out in his past seven.

Jason Kipnis ($4,100) — home vs. KC (James Shields)

Kipnis has his OPS up to .808, the first time it’s been over .800 since May 21. After a slow start to the season, Kipnis has been very impressive. He had seven homers and 22 RBI in May, and halfway through June he has five stolen bases (15 on the season) and a .388/.466/.531/.996 OPS this month. Shields is a tough matchup, but Kipnis is a tough hitter.

Anthony Rendon ($2,800) — road vs. PHI (John Lannan)

Rendon has hit safely in all nine games since he was recalled with 16 hits and a 1.168 OPS over that span. For the money, that’s insane production.

Alcides Escobar ($2,200) — road vs. CLE (Carlos Carrasco)

Don’t look now (well, do look because he won’t be this cheap for long) but Escobar is starting to hit again. He’s hit safely in his last four games, including a three-hit effort yesterday, with three extra base hits in those four games. That’s some solid FanDuel production there, and Carrasco isn’t the toughest to face.

Jason Heyward ($3,200) — home vs. NYM (Dillon Gee)

Heyward hasn’t been great this year, but he has been great against Gee. For his career, Heyward is 7-for-15 (.467) with a homer, five walks, and three strikeouts against the suddenly rebounding Mets’ starter.

Mike Trout ($4,800) — home vs. SEA (Aaron Harang)

Trout has a .305 average, a .933 OPS, 27 combined homers and steals, and 93 combined runs and RBI…in mid-June. He’s a no-brainer selection if you can afford him.

Coco Crisp ($4,300) — road vs. TEX (Nick Tepesch)

This is the first time I’ve picked Crisp all season. I’ve always just felt uneasy putting this much money on a player like Crisp, but he has demonstrated a good amount of power this year with his always impressive speed, and he’s an ideal player in these types of points formats. He’s hot right now with nine hits, including two homers, over his last six games.

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Sunday Reader Survey, Week 12: Selling Bryce Harper

We are back with another installment of our weekly survey write-up – thanks for the great participation this past week…let’s keep it going!! We asked you about some young gun pitchers, a few potential aces returning to action, a steroid scandal, and a hurting slugger. Throughout the week we received a whole bunch of responses, crunched the numbers, and now you get to see the results!

These surveys can help you dominate your league in a couple ways.

  • The results are a great way for you to lean what your competition is thinking
  • The survey itself can point you in the directions of trending players, buzz-worthy news, and waiver wire ideas
  • Plus, it’s just fun!

The week 12 survey highlights a no name pitcher that MUST be on your radar, some HOT hitting 1B, a NEW closer?, a post hype sleeper pitcher and a power/speed slugger turning things around…

Click here to take the Week 12 survey!

Now on to Week 11′s results!

1) How worried are you about Bryce Harper going forward?

Harper

Quick recap: In a nutshell, very few are very worried…but 63%, are moderately worried. The remaining 33% must have nerves of steel because they believe it is a great time to buy low and are not worried at all.

My take: I am fairly surprised a third of fantasy owners believe this is no big deal. For those that may not be aware of all the details I will give you the run down…Bryce Harper hasn’t played in a game since the Nats were the Expos…actually it was May 26 due to a severe case of bursitis in his left knee. Since that time he has received a platelet rich plasma injection, a cortisone shot, and a visit to Dr. James “Darth Vader” Andrews. So I ask, in a yelling matter, this to the 33% – HOW CAN YOU NOT BE MORE WORRIED! He is expected to play in some rehab games within the next week or two…ok that’s great, but just because he is back on the field it doesn’t mean you should be confident at all that his actual value will live up to his name value. You may not have realized, but he only had 2 steals before the injury. If he wasn’t really running much before the injury what makes you think he will or can going forward with that Nancy Kerrigan knee. So in my opinion he won’t come close to the power speed combo we expected him to be. Despite this I do believe all the name value is still there, and who knows, maybe you can grab a Chris Davis, Carlos Gomez, Adam Jones, Carlos Beltran, Giancarlo Stanton type of return or even package. If you can get this type of return you absolutely should!

2) Which rookie pitcher would you prefer to own for the rest of the year?

Cole

Quick recap: Gerrit Cole baby! He was the overwhelming choice here with 41% of the vote. The rest were more enthusiastic about Zach Wheeler (30%) or Michael Wacha (21%), with just a couple hanging on to Tyler Skaggs (4%).

My take: What a debut for the former #1 draft pick Cole. He limited a fairly good offense of the highly underrated SF Giants to just 2 earned runs over 6+ innings. Not too shabby, I admit that. However, I think fantasy players are giving him a bit too much credit based on just the one start. For one, as we have seen with several rookie pitchers this year, including the aforementioned Skaggs and Wacha, dominating in a major league debut does not equal sustainable performance. In addition, prior to the A.J. Burnett injury there was no certainty Cole would be up for more than a start or two. Although this is water under the bridge now, in my opinion it shows Cole isn’t really part of the immediate plans for this season…unless he forces the issue of course. Call me a pessimist, but I just don’t see an “ACE” when I look at his strike out and walk rates, so while he might be OK, I would be careful about running him out there blindly if you own him. Among this group, my money is actually on Zach Wheeler, an elite prospect in his own right, for two reasons. Simply put, I think he will miss more bats, which means more Ks and I think once he is called up there is no chance he gets sent back down.

3) Where will Jered Weaver rank among starting pitchers going forward?

Weaver

Quick recap: I am pleased to report readers were actually more optimistic about Jered Weaver than I thought they would be. 54% are expecting a top 30 performance, and 31% believe he will be top 20…that’s what I’m talkin’ about! Very few project him to be better than top 20 or worse than top 30.

My take: My take on Weaver is fairly established as I wrote about him last week…I try to debunk three myths that I think are at the forefront of why he is being so heavily undervalued this year; decreased velocity, declining strike outs, and ERA vs. FIP/xFIP discrepancy…if you missed my article the first time, be sure to read my rant here.

4) What will happen when Brandon Beachy returns?

braves     

Quick recap: This was a two man race between Julio Teheran (35%) and Paul Maholm (27%). Despite Kris Medlen’s bullpen experience only 15% believe he will be the odd man out. Others, 13%, felt a 6 man rotation might be the best solution…that would be nice but, boy this situation is going to be messy and make lots of fantasy players unhappy.

My take: Let’s just assume for a second Brandon Beachy is completely healthy and makes it back to the rotation in a week or so…In a world where salary and reputation have no impact on baseball decisions, Tim Hudson would be the guy to go, but lucky for him we all know that he isn’t going anywhere (unless they make up an injury). I also can’t picture Maholm going anywhere either…not that he has been amazing, because he hasn’t, but he has been extremely Maholmish, which is a consistent 3.60 ERA and 180 IP innings eater. There is no way they take that consistency out of the rotation and mess around with him in the pen. That really means it is down to their best pitcher of 2012 and fantasy darling Kris Medlen, or the vastly improving and fast developing Julio Teheran. In one case you have a guy who quietly has a 3.09 ERA, and in the other you have a guy who is really starting to make a name for himself despite an ERA that is half a run higher. Both of these pitchers could also have some innings fatigue issues down the stretch so it’s not a terrible idea for from a real life perspective for either of them to move to a depleted pen, but I am sure Medlen owners are very annoyed this possibility even exists! Personally, I think Medlen will be the guy to lose his spot because he has been great in the bullpen before. As a Medlen owner, in several leagues, I am hoping his agent barks at the Braves brass enough to force them into moving Teheran, but I am not optimistic. I am going to play a game of chicken and hold on to him rather than trade, but I am definitely nervous.

5) How likely do you think it is that players will serve a suspension this year from the biogen scandal?

Suspension

Quick recap: The most common thinking, 60%, is that players are either “somewhat or very unlikely” to serve any suspensions, with about 25% believing it is “somewhat or very likely” and about 20% completely unsure.

My take: I agree with the 44% who think it is “very unlikely.” There is so much legal junk that must take place before suspensions are even handed out, and then you can be sure the appeal process will be a very lengthy one. Besides the timing, I wonder if it even matters. For one, there are only a few players fantasy relevant on the list, and Ryan Braun, the most notable one is already missing significant time this year whether it is day to day rest or a recent DL stint due to his crazy weak thumb…By the way if you were ever to challenge Braun in a thumb wrestling match, now would be the time. Second, IF they do end up actually having to serve suspensions, won’t that be for months down the road…so maybe worst case scenario you lose a few weeks. Fantasy owners will have already banked most of the stats they would get out of a player anyway. If I owned Braun, as some of our writers have already suggested I would try and trade him for 90 cents on the dollar because of his injuries, not because of a potential suspension. I am not actively shopping anyone else I own on the list.

 Comment, ask questions or whatever you want on twitter @ANodBaseball

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