Foul Paul! Time For Some Reader Questions

@DSveum asks: Hey Paul, big fan. Name a pitcher who could be valuable for the rest of the season who wasn’t drafted in many leagues.

Excellent question. Matt Garza is fresh off the DL and is a top 40 pitcher when he is healthy. He could gain even more value if (when) he is traded to a contender. Believe it or not, for his career Matt Garza has NEVER had an ERA above 3.95 in a full season. He’ll keep his ratios in check and can still strike out 8 batters per 9. Not to mention he’s pitching for a contract this year, Garza looks like a sneaky pickup. Also, keep an eye on Michael Pineda. If his velocity is back and he laid off the Cheetos during his rehab, he could be useful in the second half.

@KateUpton asks: “Paul, you aren’t returning any of my calls! I’ve been begging you for months, please go out with me.”

I’ll let you know Kate. Please stop calling.

@Adityasharkbyte asks: Who’s the better player, Harper, Trout or Machado?

This is a tricky one. There is only one real way to truly find out who is the best baseball player. DEATH MATCH! Now remember, when looking into a debate about superiority, it always comes down to physical strength regardless of the debate. If you put these three guys in a cage Vegas will eat this up for sure. As for the match, I believe Trout and Harper know they are much better than Machado and would therefore gang up and easily eliminate Machado. That just leaves Trout and Harper. Now Trout is a little bigger in terms of size and weight, but if any player in the major leagues would step up to the plate with blood on their face instead of eye black, it’s Bryce Harper. He just looks like he watched a lot of wrestling on TV when he was kid. That’s why I’m confidently taking Bryce Harper in the death match. He’s a little crazy. Now in terms of fantasy, I’m willing to bet Trout will always be the better fantasy player due to the speed-power combo. Also, people please stop lying to yourselves, Harper doesn’t have 50-homer power, he’ll top out at 40.

@BlakeGriffin asks: What’s the deal with Victor Martinez? Also, Kate and I are worried about you man, return our calls!

He just doesn’t have 20 homer power anymore. His BABIP is low, which suggests some correction to his batting average. When it rises, the runs and RBI will increase as well thanks to the lineup around him, but don’t expect anything over 15 homers. He’s still a top 10 catcher, but more like number 8 or 9 than 3 or 4.

@PresObama asks: Paul, I feel your phone is broken. You have been appointed the Secretary of Fantasy Sports and I just cannot seem to get a hold of you. Please return my calls. Also, is Kevin Gausman worth owning this season?

Yeah I think he is. I don’t like him as much as I liked Tony Cingrani when he got the call, but I think Gausman has a chance to earn a rotation spot for the rest of the season. He’ll miss some bats and probably provide a sub-4.00 ERA, but I wouldn’t go crazy. If your waivers format uses Free Agent Dollars I wouldn’t spend more than 10% of your budget on him. There are just too many decent pitchers out there. Deep leagues, you have my permission to go crazy.

Thanks for reading I really appreciate it. If you have any questions or comments or just want to yell at me via internet feel free to post something in the comments section. I love comments. Especially when I ask for reader questions and nobody posts anything. I love that too.

Read full story · Comments { 0 }

Dumpster Diving: Go Get Anthony Rendon

Welcome to Dumpster Diving, where we search for deep league pick-ups among the picked over. In this space we’ll highlight some of the good and bad lurking on the waiver wire in those deep mixed leagues (14+ teams) and NL/AL-only leagues. Today, let’s take it around the horn for some recommended additions across the diamond.

Note: Ownership percentages are Yahoo, ESPN

Catcher

Russell Martin, PIT — (40%, 24%)

After a two-year stint with the Yankees, the 30-year-old backstop is back in the NL and thriving again. His numbers aren’t outstanding, but he has 6 HR and a .262 BA, which is good enough to make him a legitimate starter in all deep leagues. He’s currently on pace for his second straight 20-HR season and his .255 BABIP should be rising.

Corner Infield

Brandon Belt, SF — (38%, 23.9%)

Belt started the season colder than a San Francisco summer, but lately has reminded us why he was a Baseball America Top 25 prospect in 2011. After finishing April with 2 HR and a .235 BA, Belt has hit 4 HR and .276 in May, including 3 HR and a .355 BA over the last two weeks. He’s still only 25 years old and just coming into his own, so don’t be surprised if he finishes 2013 with close to 20 HR, a .280 BA and double digit steals.

Middle Infield

Anthony Rendon, WSH — (2%, 0.2%)

If those first two weren’t deep enough for you, this one should suffice. Rendon’s currently playing at Double-A Harrisburg and was only so-so (6-for-25, 1 2B, 5 BB, 7 K) during his eight games spent with the Nationals this season while Ryan Zimmerman was on the mend. Since heading back to the minors, however, he’s been on a tear. For the season with Harrisburg, Rendon, widely considered a top-30 prospect, is slashing .330/.473/.625 with 6 HR, 30 BB and 23 K in 32 games.

But what makes him such an interesting play for those who can afford to speculate is the fact that he was recently moved from 3B to 2B. The Nationals have denied that they have any plans to replace the struggling Danny Espinosa in the lineup, but it appears to be only a matter of time before they do just that. If you were one of the owners blindsided by the Josh Rutledge demotion this week, you know what a wasteland the waiver wire is for middle infielders right now. If you’ve got space on your bench, go get Rendon now.

Outfield

Matt Joyce, TB — (12%, 15%)

Though Joyce has been on a steady climb since a woeful start to the season, fantasy owners still aren’t paying much attention to his slow but sure ascent. Currently at .250/.338/.488 with 8 HR, Joyce has raised his average 28 points in May and the underlying numbers say it’s no fluke. His K-rate is down from previous seasons, and his BABIP (.250) is 37 points lower than his career average. An increase in ground balls accounts for some of that, but bad luck likely accounts for more.

If you’ve been tempted to pick up Raul Ibanez in the wake of his recent power surge, pick up Joyce instead. You’ll get the same power upside with a better BA, a handful of steals, and more consistent playing time.

Brent Holloway writes the weekly Prospect Profile and Deep League Dumpster Diving columns for BaseballProf.com. Follow him on Twitter (@thebholloway).

Read full story · Comments { 0 }

Start/Sit: Friday’s (5/24) Probable Starters

Yesterday was not a good day for pitchers, but today we add 10 more games to the schedule so the odds are in our favor! Remember, these recommendations are for 10-12 team mixed leagues and bold=start.

Friday’s Probable Starters

Chris Tillman, BAL @ Sean Nolin, TOR — It’s a bit risky, but if you’re in need of some strikeouts then Tillman could be a good option.

Samuel Deduno, MIN @ Anibal Sanchez, DET — Sanchez struggled in his last start vs. the Rangers, but the Twins’ offense isn’t even close to that caliber.

Justin Masterson, CLE @ John Lackey, BOS — Masterson has been a very solid pitcher so far, but he didn’t fare so well against Boston last time out (5 IP, 11 H, 4 ER, 5 K/1 BB). Lackey has feasted on bad offenses so far (MIN x2 and HOU), but the Indians are hitting well.

David Phelps, NYY @ Roberto Hernandez, TB — I absolutely love Phelps to continue his hot streak tonight.

Tom Koehler, MIA @ John Danks, CHW — Yes it’s Miami, but Danks hasn’t pitched in a MLB game in over a year and will likely have some limitations in his first start.

Jason Vargas, LAA @ Luis Mendoza, KC — Vargas hasn’t been great on the road this year (5.16 ERA), but he did dominate the Royals last time (7 IP, 5 H, 2 ER, 7 K/1 BB) even if it was at home.

Tommy Milone, OAK @ Erik Bedard, HOU — Even though Milone isn’t at home, it’s the Astros. In Bedard’s last start vs. Oakland, he lasted just 0.1 innings and let up 6 ER.

Justin Grimm, TEX @ Joe Saunders, SEA — Grimm has pitched fairly well against the Mariners this year so I’m throwing him out there. Saunders vs. the Rangers is not something I’m confident in.

Kyle Kendrick, PHI @ Jordan Zimmermann, WSH — Kendrick broke his string of seven consecutive quality starts, but seven out of nine is still pretty damn good.

Scott Feldman, CHC @ Bronson Arroyo, CIN — Feldman has been on a hot streak as of late (1.27 ERA in his last five starts), but the Reds offense at home scares me in this matchup. Arroyo is just a “meh” option who I would start if I was looking for a win with decent ratios.

Kris Medlen, ATL @ Jeremy Hefner, NYM — Medlen owns a career 1.58 ERA and has held the current Mets’ lineup to a .174 BA and .256 SLG.

A.J. Burnett, PIT @ Marco Estrada, MIL — Burnett is a strikeout machine, ’nuff said. Estrada has struggled with HR this year, but he recently dominated the Pirates so I’m dipping in the Estrada pool yet again.

Eric Stults, SD @ Brandon McCarthy, ARI — McCarthy has two streaks going: He has dominated two straight games (17 IP, 10 H, 0 ER, 10 K/2 BB) and has faced two sub-par offenses. Both streaks will be extended tonight.

Lance Lynn, STL @ Chris Capuano, LAD — Lynn is a must-start against a struggling Dodgers offense. Capuano is the opposite.

Tyler Chatwood, COL @ Tim Lincecum, SF — These two didn’t fare so well in last week’s matchup. While Chatwood earned the win, he allowed 11 baserunners in 5.2 IP.

Read full story · Comments { 0 }

Daily FanDuel Picks: May 24, 2013

A second straight 41.25-point effort landed me in the money once again. My “Kevin Gausman is so cheap that I can afford elite bats and just pray he doesn’t implode” strategy worked. Gausman scored just six points, but four of my batters tallied over five points and the juicy Salvador Perez-Joe Blanton matchup even netted me 3.75 with his barrage of singles — as expected.

Today we go for three in a row, and I switch from selecting the absolute cheapest pitcher to rolling with the most expensive. As usual, leave your thoughts/strategies in the comments section. Of course, if you haven’t played FanDuel’s daily fantasy games yet and thus have no strategies, I’d implore you to give it a go!

Possible postponements: CLE@BOS, PHI@WAS (but this one should get in, no problem)

Season Results

Wagered: $485 | Profit: $5.50 | ROI: 1.1% | Avg. Points: 31.99

may 24

Contest Settings

  • Salary Cap: $35K
  • Buy-in: $10
  • Teams: 20-team 50/50 contest (pays top 10)
  • Start Time: 7 :05 pm EST
  • Player universe: All gamesLate games
  • Pitcher Scoring: W = 4 pts, IP = 1 pt, K = 1 pt, ER = -1 pt
  • Hitter Scoring: TB = 1 pt, R = 1 pt, RBI = 1 pt, SB = 2 pts, BB = 1 pt, HBP = 1 pt, Out = -0.25 pt

Jordan Zimmermann ($8,300) — home vs. PHI (Kyle Kendrick)

Remember, I’m only picking home starters (unless a great value presents itself) and that means today I can choose from Zimmermann vs. Philadelphia, Anibal Sanchez vs. Minnesota for $7,600, or maybe some value options like Marco Estrada vs. Pittsburgh for $6,000. Zimmermann has dominated this season and I just felt like spending the extra money on the sure thing. He already has seven wins (semi-random) and I think he makes it eight.

Miguel Montero ($2,200) — home vs. SD (Eric Stults)

Look, Montero has been terrible all season, and I’m aware that he’s facing a left-hander today. I really don’t care. This pick costs me just $2,200. If I was to spend $600-$800 more just to approach the $3,000 bats at catcher, I wouldn’t be able to get the near-elite options at other positions below. In my mind, the drop off from a $3,000 catcher to a $2,200 catcher is far less than the drop off from a near-elite non-catcher to a sub-$3,000 option.

Billy Butler ($3,600) — home vs. LAA (Jason Vargas)

Butler has gone 0-for-4 in his last two games but has compile two-plus hits in five of his last 10. He also crushes Vargas. Just this season he’s already 2-for-3 with a homer against the Angels lefty, and for his career he’s 8-for-16 (.500) with three homers against him.

Brandon Phillips ($3,500) — home vs. CHC (Scott Feldman)

Phillips’ selection was more a product of good value than it was this matchup. At $3,500, he was just the eighth-priciest option and came at the same price as “studs” like Daniel Murphy and Jose Altuve — good, but not as good as Phillips. Phillips has also hit safely in 10 straight games and already has 40 RBI and 27 runs scored on the year.

Nolan Arenado ($2,400) — road vs. SF (Tim Lincecum)

Arenado has four homers on the year and has outscored everyone in his price range on a per-game basis since getting called up almost a month ago. Lincecum isn’t the easiest matchup, but the value here is hard to beat.

Ian Desmond ($2,900) — home vs. PHI (Kyle Kendrick)

Desmond hasn’t been very good recently, but Kendrick could be just what the doctor ordered — Desmond is 10-for-23 (.435) with as many homers (2) as strikeouts against Philly’s right-hander.

Jay Bruce ($4,100) — home vs. CHC (Scott Feldman)

Bruce has gone 0-for-7 in his last two games with seven strikeouts, but Feldman isn’t a real strikeout threat. Prior to the last two games, Bruce had homered in four of eight with six two-plus hit efforts.

Andrew McCutchen ($4,300) — road vs. MIL (Marco Estrada)

Estrada has disappointed us this season, and McCutchen will likely add to his woes today — he’s 3-for-6 (.500) with a homer and zero strikeouts against Estrada. McCutchen has also been on a tear over the last week. In his last six games, he’s tallied 12 hits, including five doubles and a homer, scored seven runs, driven in three runs, and stolen three bases.

Yoenis Cespedes ($3,700) — road vs. HOU (Erik Bedard)

Cespedes has had a problem with strikeouts this year, so Bedard could pose problems for him, but I’m willing to bet we see more good than bad today. Cespedes has hit in five straight, including two doubles and two homers, and he’s killed left-handers both this season (.921 OPS) and for his short career (.866 OPS).

Read full story · Comments { 2 }
  • Forums
  • About BaseballProf
  • Daily Fantasy Baseball Advice
  • 2013 Closer Depth Chart
  • 2013 Fantasy Baseball Rankings
  • Contact
  • Glossary
  • 2011 Fantasy Baseball
  • 2012 Fantasy Baseball
  • 2013 Fantasy Baseball
  • 2013 Fantasy Rankings
  • Daily Fantasy Baseball Advice
  • Fantasy Baseball Strategy
  • Profcasts
  • Professor's Blog
  • Sunday Reader Survey
  • Tuesday's Top 10
  • 2013
  • 2012
  • 2011
  • 2010
  • 2009